MNF Pick: Chargers vs. Cardinals Week 7

This week’s play:

LA Chargers

Last week, I said I’m having difficulties beating the NFL because I don’t have my normal systems to work with. They’re all averaging out at approximately .500. Nothing to bet ON or Fade.

But that was then, this is now.
Here’s the record for two of my plays from NFL week 6:
WF1, 0-5
WF2, 0-8
That’s a remarkable 0-13.

Included in that 0-13 were the three asterisk plays, one I used as my pick and shared in the homepage column, the other two I posted for info purposes in the forum in case anyone was looking for angles on those games. All three lost, making the asterisk Fade 3-0 last week.

The asterisk play is now 0-8 on the season in the NFL, a 100% Fade.
Unfortunately, nothing qualifies for this Sunday, though.
“Drat, drat, and double drat” (I’m guessing nobody is going to get the source of that reference but there it is anyway.)

Going into week six . . .
WF1 was 8-14 (Hm 1-3, Rd 7-11.)
WF2 was 6-8 (Hm 5-7 Rd 1-1.)
No real edges to exploit except for WF1 on the Rd.

Coming into this week I have:
WF1 Hm 1-7, Rd 7-12
WF2 Hm 5-15, Rd 1-1
Lots to work with based on those records. And lots to choose from with four games qualifying for WF1 and six for WF2.
I’ll list all 10 Fade teams in the forum for anyone looking for angles on those games.

For my homepage column, I’m using the LA Chargers.
The game qualifies under two of my methods. AND a subcategory.

WF1 says Az should be the Fav.
WF1 Hm teams are 1-7, an 87% Fade.

WF2 says Az should be the Fav.
WF2 Hm teams are 5-15, a 75% Fade.

Solid, right?

But there’s also this:
Match plays. When both methods kick out the same WF team, the record is 1-6.

The pick is not all smooth sailing though. I’m using an AFC team vs an NFC team, and the NFC is 18-9 SU and 16-7 ATS vs the AFC.
And I’m using an AFC team laying points on the Rd. Making matters worse – it’s a team with an anemic offense.
But that’s offset by the fact that I’ve got a much better D. The Chargers are giving up just 12 PPG while the Cards give up 26 PPG.

LAC is 3-2 SU, while Az is only 2-4.
Also in my favor, LAC is 2-1 SU on the Rd, AZ is only 1-2 at home.

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And the spread numbers work in my favor, too. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS on the Rd, while the Cardinals are just 1-2 ATS at home.
Joey Bosa is questionable, but the game’s being played on Monday night, so I will get an extra day to possibly get him back. I’m not too concerned though as I’m sure Harbaugh will have a game plan to keep Kyler Murray in check, which will be key because Arizona’s leading receiver Marvin Harrison Jr is in concussion protocol and not likely to play. This means Arizona is likely to lean more on their leading rushers, Connor and Murray, which plays right into Harbaugh and the Chargers’ strength, stopping the run. LAC only gives up 97 yards per game on the ground, sixth best in the league.

Three different systems of mine say, “Take LAC.” So I did.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 5-6.5

Review: Banked an easy unit using the asterisk play on Atlanta, who won 38-20 against the Fade team, Carolina.

This week’s play:

LAC -2′
When to Buy Recommendation:

The line opened LAC -2′ and it’s still at that number.
I think there’s a better chance it goes up to a full FG rather than drops to -2 or fewer, so I’m grabbing it now at the current price.