MNF Pick: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Buffalo Bills (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (7-10 SU, 8-9 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, September 11, 8:20 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: Buf -2 / NYJ +2
Over/Under Total: 46.5

The Aaron Rodgers era for the New York Jets debuts on Monday Night at MetLife Stadium as the Bills come to town to finish out week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. BOVADA.LV (Excellent live betting) has made the Bills 2-point road favorites and set the over/under at 46.5 for this AFC East rivalry. I am willing to lay the points and count on the Bills to cover the short number. Here are three reasons.

Is The Jets Offense Really That Good?

New York’s attack last year was mediocre to start the year and continuously got worse. Rodgers obviously instantaneously upgrades the offense that was led by Zach Wilson last year, but will that be enough for a team that lost their last six games? Rodgers was only mediocre last season, and he will be playing behind an offensive line that has a lot of question marks. Rodgers and Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson will be a dynamic tandem, but other than that, Rodgers will again be throwing to Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, which will not intimidate and Defensive Coordinator. An injured Dalvin Cook joins the injured Breece Hall in the backfield, and it is unclear how ready both of them will be in week 1. I expect a lot of three-and-outs from this offense in Week 1 as they all work to get on the same page. I don’t think Rodgers trusts the offensive line, and he will not want to take hits from the Bills front. I’m not sure his line can protect him even against a mediocre Buffalo pass rush, so don’t look for much magic in week 1.

Buffalo was 15th in the league with 40 sacks last year, but 8 of those were from Von Miller, who missed the final two months of the season and will not be on the field this week. Their lack of a pass rush without Miller was a big part of their demise. They did acquire Leonard Floyd, who can pressure QBs but is not on the level of Miller. I expect a lot of blitzing from Buffalo this week to make Rodgers uneasy. Coach Sean McDermott knows his team has to dial up the pressure and will surely have some special packages in store for Rodgers. Cornerback Tre’Davious White has been a premier defender in the league. He should be 100% recovered from his late 2021 knee injury and will draw the assignment of Wilson, which will be pivotal in this contest. Look for the Jet offense to get out of the gate slow and struggles to sustain drives this week.

Buffalo’s Offense Can Carry The Team

Josh Allen has elevated his game to the point he is in the group of quarterbacks that might be the best in the league if it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes. Allen led the Bills to the 4th most points in the league last year and the 2nd most yards per play. He has all of his weapons back this year and has added first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid to the mix. Kincaid is more of a receiver than a blocker and will cause headaches for opposing defenses. James Cook takes over as the lead back this year after averaging 5.7 yards per carry last year, which makes the running game more dynamic than when Devin Singletary was the go-to guy. There is no reason to expect this offense to slow down this year or expect them to start slow out of the gate in week 1. The New York defense will have their hands full from the opening kick-off.

The Jets’ defense is a very strong unit and will not be a push over on Monday night. They have studs on all three levels, with DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner being top players at their positions. They allowed the 4th fewest points last year, including only giving up 37 total points to the Bills in their two contests. I don’t expect the New York defense to get run over this week, but I think Buffalo will be able to keep the chains moving and protect Allen enough that he can get the ball to his playmakers.

The Jets Have To Prove It

If Championships were awarded in August, the Jets would have a big trophy in their case, and we would be talking about 2024. But that’s not how it works, so now the Jets have to put on the shoulder pads and back up the talk that they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Head Coach Robert Saleh has already explained to the world his belief that his squad is on par with the elite teams in the league, but Saleh, as a coach, has 11 wins in 2 seasons. In 2008, the Jets trotted out an ex-Packer Hall of Fame QB, who proceeded to throw 22 interceptions and lead the team to only nine wins. Needless to say, the Bills will not have any patience while the Jets work to get in sync and will be in full attack mode on Monday Night. The Jets have a very suspect offensive line, running backs at less than 100% health, and a mediocre receiving room. There is no reason to think they can go toe to toe with a proven Super Bowl contender and come away with a win.

Play The Road Favorites On Monday Night

Let’s roll with the proven commodity on Monday Night and take the Bills -2. I also lean to the Under 46.5 in this Week 1 division match-up. Note: (To avoid confusion) Kevin West is betting the Jets at +2 on our main free picks page. Our office is split on this one.