MNF Pick: Bengals vs. Jaguars Expert Betting Predictions

Cincinnati Bengals (5-6 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS)

Date/Time: Monday, December 4, 8:15 PM EST

Where: TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fl.

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Cin +8 / Jax -8
Moneyline: Cin +305 / Jax -410
Over/Under Total: 37.5

The Bengals head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars this week on Monday Night Football. With a healthy Joe Burrow, this would be a marquee shootout game, but without him, BOVADA.LV is making the Jags 8-point favorites and setting the game total at 37.5. The play is to lay the points with Jacksonville. Here is the handicap.

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The Jags Have The Weapons

Jacksonville has been a team on the rise since they selected Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick three years ago. They won only three games in Lawrence’s rookie campaign thanks to the Urban Meyer experiment but won their division last year with nine wins and are currently in command of the AFC South with their 8-3 record. The Jags have added a new weapon every year, and this year’s addition of Calvin Ridley has moved their offensive skill position players into the upper echelon of the league. Ridley teaming with Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram, and Zay Jones makes defenses defend the whole field and give Lawrence a variety of targets. Travis Etienne has become a premier bellcow back in the league, capable of both grinding out tough yards and breaking big plays. Their stats are not gaudy, and they have been a little inconsistent this year, but other than the no-show against the 49ers three weeks ago, Coach Doug Pederson has the team heading in the right direction. They have rebounded from the SF loss and went into Houston last week to play their best offensive game of the year, racking up 445 yards of total offense en route to a 24-21 victory. The offensive line has been an issue, but Lawrence wasn’t sacked by a Houston pass rush that is as good as the Bengal unit they will face this week. I look for further improvement from the Jag offense as the season moves forward, especially this week. They should be able to move the ball down the field and score on Sunday.

The Cincinnati defense has some star players and great coaching, but it hasn’t come together this year. Though they rank middle of the pack in points per game allowed, they rank 31st in opponent’s yards per play and gave up 421 yards to a bad Steeler offense last week. They are a unit that is built to play from ahead, allowing them to rush the passer and get takeaways, but with Burrow’s issues early in the year and now being out, the defense has to carry the team, and they are not that type of unit. Najee Harris nearly topped 100 yards last week, while Kenny Pickett shredded the secondary, though the Bengals were able to mostly keep the Steelers out of the endzone. I look for Jacksonville to move the ball with the same ease Pittsburgh did but have better success in the red zone. The plethora of weapons for Pederson to utilize makes stopping them at the goal line extremely difficult.

Cincy’s Offense Is Toast

The Bengal offense was just hitting its stride when QB Joe Burrow suffered his season-ending wrist injury. In stepped Jake Browning, and out went any chance of the Bengals making the playoffs. Browning was respectable throwing the ball last week, but without a running game to lean on, the Bengals held the ball for only 23 minutes and racked up only 222 total yards. Only 16 of those yards came from Joe Mixon on the ground. Coach Zac Taylor called only eight runs for Mixon despite the score being fairly close the whole way. Of course, the Bengals’ running game has been non-existent all year – ranking 30th in rushing yards per game, so there is no reason to believe they can flip a switch and start pounding the rock. Ja’Marr Chase continues to play as a premier playmaker in the league, and Browning will try to get him the ball as much as possible, but with Tee Higgens fighting hamstring issues, Chase will get the full attention of the Jaguar defense this Monday Night.

Jacksonville’s defense is a solid unit that will make things hard on the Bengals. They allow the 10th fewest points per game in the league and are strong against the run, so they will be able to make the Bengals one-dimensional again this week. They are second in the league in takeaways and will be looking for Browning to make some mistakes. Josh Allen has been turning up the heat this year on the edge, recording 12 sacks through 11 games, and will be harassing Browning all night. Browning took four sacks last week and will probably reach that number again Monday Night. I don’t expect Cincinnati to have any more success offensively this week than they had against Pittsburgh.

Cincy Might Roll Over

The Bengals came into the year thinking they could make another trip to the Super Bowl and maybe hoist the Lombardy trophy. With Burrow out and after last week not being able to take down the division rival Steelers, they know January will not include them chasing a title. I look for Lawrence to put up points early, possibly leading to the Bengals effort level takes a nosedive. They won’t be able to run the ball, and their offensive line won’t be able to protect Browning, combining to make it hard for the team to dig down deep to battle the Jags. Jacksonville is also in a little bit of a letdown spot, but they have a chance at the number 1 seed in the AFC, so I think Pederson is able to keep his squad focused against a weaker opponent at home.

Lay The Points

The play on MNF this week is to count on Trevor Lawrence and the Jags and lay the points.