MNF Pick: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Baltimore Ravens come to Levi’s Stadium on Monday Night Football for a Christmas showdown with the San Francisco 49ers. This one really worked out well schedule-wise, as each team comes into this with a lot of momentum. The Ravens beat the Jaguars on the road, 23-7, last week for their 8th win in 9 games. They take to the road again this Monday in a tough spot against a Niners team that continues to dominate. A 45-29 win over the Cardinals on Sunday was their 6th win in a row. Who can come out ahead in this battle of top contenders on MNF?

Analyzing the Stakes

We remember these teams playing in a Super Bowl a decade ago, which was a memorable one. If forced to project a Super Bowl as we head into week 16, many would likely mention these two teams, a pair of frontrunners in their respective conferences, each sitting at 11-3. Still, while it’s a marquee matchup where coaches and players on both sides want to make a statement, it’s really just another game. In fact, you could even site a lack of urgency on both sides and try to find a letdown angle. Baltimore still wants to prevent being overtaken in their division but is ahead two games with three left, while San Fran has the NFC West sewn up.

That is not to say either team is slacking off heading into this, but just because this has “Super Bowl Preview” written all over it doesn’t mean either team is approaching this with any more urgency than they’d normally be. You could even see a few cagey coaching moves based more on an information-gathering motivation. It’s not the Super Bowl is the main point here. And when we see teams with their positions cemented in late-season, weird things can happen. Still, with the importance of a top seed more crucial than ever, both of these teams still have work to do.

Matchup Issues for Both

It’s no secret what either team does well. The question is can they do it at this elevated context. Offensively, each team faces one of if not their toughest matchups of the season going against these defenses. Last week, the Niners gave up 29 to the Cardinals, allowing Arizona to do some damage in a game that was already over. If you give them a pass for that, their performances since having that strange 3-game slide have been incredible. Opposing offenses are getting nowhere, with their games barely competitive. Their last six games have been landslides.

Lamar Jackson is certainly a special player. With no stars in the backfield, they can still run the ball. Zay Flowers is a fine rookie receiver, and in Mark Andrews’ absence, we’ve seen Isaiah Likely really flourish at tight end. It’s still an offense that has been served up some easier defenses this season, far more-subdued when taking on the better defenses in the league. But more often than not, they’ve been pretty consistent, and despite some personnel issues and an offense that doesn’t pop with big names or stats, they’ve been pretty good, putting up 27 or more points eight times this season.

The Ravens are really going to need to call on their defense to stop a Niners’ squad that has put up 27 or more points in every game except for their three-game losing streak. With an MVP candidate in Brock Purdy at QB with a cavalcade of stars on offense, the differential of star power on offense makes the Niners stand out more in the mind. That could be a trick, but there’s no denying that an offense-wielding Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle is a handful. It’s just not all that frequent this season where we see offenses having big days against this Baltimore defense. With the pass rush coming from multiple angles, it’s a different experience for opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens’ “D” can be stout and make big, timely plays. They play in tandem with the offense, and it’s a real team effort. How well this group does in limiting big plays and getting after Brock Purdy will go a long way toward determining who wins this game.

Food for Thought

There is ammo on both sides of this equation. It’s hard to forecast the Ravens losing by more than this spread, something that has only occurred once this season, with some bad calls playing a role. The Niners have been dominant while also playing some pretty exploitable defenses during this 6-game winning streak. The Ravens have maybe been in some tougher spots lately, with their defense having stood up well, allowing 6 to the Lions, 3 to the Seahawks, and then seven last week to the Jaguars. And let’s not forget Lamar Jackson’s anomalously good record against NFC teams.

Take the Points

The Ravens have a little more to prove and to play for this week. But even if not, it’s possible that the 49ers’ recent success and how dominant they’ve been, combined with the more compelling collection of names they have on offense, creates a gulf in people’s minds that is greater than what reality might be. I’m not ruling out another Niners’ stampede this week, but I see a good game from Jackson helping keep the Ravens in it enough to creep in under that number. I’ll take Baltimore in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Baltimore Ravens plus 5.5 points.