MNF: 49ers vs. Vikings Total and ATS Pick

San Francisco 49ers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Monday, October 23, 1:07:20 EST

Where: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: SF -6.5 / Min +6.5

Moneyline: SF -290 / Min +240

Over/Under Total: 44

Kyle Shanahan brings the NFC West-leading 49ers to Minnesota’s Twin Cities to battle the hometown Vikings and close out NFL Week 7 on Monday Night Football. BOVADA.LV has made the 49ers 6½ point road favorites and put the over/under at 44. The injury bug has bitten both of these clubs hard this month, so let’s take the better team and lay the points with the 49ers. Here are three reasons.

The 49er Offense Will Rebound

Shanahan’s offense had put up 30 points in each of their first five games before only getting to 17 last week against the Browns in Cleveland. The Browns’ defense limited Brock Purdy and company to only 215 total yards and completely shut down SF’s attack in the second half. Despite Sunday’s subpar performance, the 49ers still rank 2nd in the league in points scored and 3rd in yards per play. San Francisco’s two most versatile offensive stars, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, along with stud tackle Trent Williams, all suffered injuries that will make them questionable this week and slow them down if they are able to go. These injuries contributed to the dismal second half last week and will be a challenge this week – but one that Shanahan should be able to overcome. McCaffrey averages over 120 yards from scrimmage per game, and needless to say, it is a big step down to any of his backups. Samuel’s skill set allows Shanahan to move him around the formation to get favorable matchups, but should be easier to replace. I think with a week of preparation, Shanahan will have no problem putting a game plan together to score points even without these weapons. Jordan Mason is averaging over 5 yards per carry and should be able to handle the ground work, while George Kittle could be utilized more in the passing game. If this game were against another elite defense on par with the Browns, I would be more concerned, but the Vikings D looks more like the Rams, Giants, or Cardinals that SF had little problems with in previous weeks.

Minnesota’s defense is a bottom-10 unit on the season despite playing 2 of the worst offenses in the league through 6 games. New Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores may have the defense going in the right direction, but they have been bad against good offenses. The Eagles, Chargers, and Chiefs averaged 30 points and 400 yards in their contests with the Vikings. To make matters worse this week, Minnesota is equally bad against the pass and run, so Shanahan will have his choice of poisons to feed the Vikings. Prior to playing the turnover machine known as Justin Fields and a rookie backup last week, Minnesota had only taken the ball away three times on the season and had 13 sacks. I expect we will see the 49ers’ attack back in high gear this week. Last week, they were outside against a defense with a strong line, while this week, they will be in a dome against a team with few defensive stars. Flores likes to blitz, and Shanahan and Purdy will be ready and make them pay for leaving their weak secondary vulnerable.

The Vikings Can’t Keep Up

Minnesota’s offense has not been as efficient as in the recent past, and when Justin Jefferson injured his hamstring in week 5, it took another step back. The Vikings are averaging only 21 points per game and rank 27th in rushing yards and 27th in 3rd down conversions. Without Jefferson last week in Chicago, the Vikings managed only 220 total yards, including only 174 passing yards. Cousins has always been a QB who prefers to target 2 or 3 guys rather than spreading the ball around, and now he is left with K.J. Osborn and rookie Jordan Addison. Both are complimentary type players, and neither will strike fear in the 49ers defense this week. But the big issue plaguing Minnesota is the 13 turnovers they have committed through 6 weeks. Cousins has been sacked 15 times and will be pressured often on Monday night.

San Francisco’s defense allows less than 15 points per game, which is the best in the league. The unit has superstars at all three levels, generating 11 takeaways through 6 games and allowing opponents the 3rd fewest yards per play. The only offense to score in the 20s against San Fran was the Rams, who found a way to block the 49ers front and give Stafford time to throw. Cleveland and their elite offensive line is the SF’s only opponent to have their running backs get close to 100 yards, so it’s safe to say that 90% of Minnesota’s offense will have to come through the air. When Minnesota gives up on the run, and everyone in America knows they are passing on almost every play, I think Cousins and the Viking attack will be in trouble. Without Jefferson, the receivers won’t get separation, the line will struggle to hold back the rush, and Cousins won’t be able to put the team on his back.

The Spot Favors SF

Everybody knows Cousins does not play his best when the lights are the brightest, and that will be on full display this week. He has a career 2-10 record on Monday Night Football. When he lines up this week without his top playmaker, it could be really ugly. SF is coming off of a bad loss last week when they had multiple in-game injuries, and still would have won if kicker Jake Moody had made a 40-yard field goal as time was running down. Shanahan should have them primed to rebound this week. We are also getting a little line value this week after SF dropped last Sunday’s game in Cleveland. The look-ahead line was 7½, so we are now on the right side of 7 to take the favorites.

Play The Niners On MNF

It’s tough laying a big number on the road in an NFL prime-time game, but it’s harder to bet on Kirk Cousins to keep his team close against an elite defense on Monday Night Football. Play the Niners. I would also lean to the Over, as I think SF gets over 30, meaning the Vikings just have to score two touchdowns to get to the total.