Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 11/3/19

Minnesota Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, November 3, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
TV: Fox

Point Spread: Min -1.5 / KC +1.5 (SportBet)
Over/Under Total: 48.5

It’s another exciting game slated for Arrowhead Stadium this week. In the last four weeks, the Chiefs have host games against the Texans, Colts, and Packers and now will welcome Mike Zimmer and his Minnesota Vikings to town. With Patrick Mahomes not expected to play – or play and be limited, sportsbooks have made the Chiefs 1½ point underdogs. Despite the reigning MVP potentially returning to action, the play is to take the favorites and lay the 1½ points. Here is the handicap.

The Vikings Are Firing On All Cylinders

Minnesota got off to a rocky start this year, losing two of their first four games and having some locker room issues between quarterback Kirk Cousins and his star receivers. Since the week four loss to the Bears, they have reeled off four straight wins and are looking like the playoff-caliber squad we were expecting. Cousins has put together maybe the best four-game stretch of his career, completing over 75% of his attempts with ten touchdowns and only one interception. He’ll have his work cut out for him this week as the Chiefs pass defense is playing better than they get credit for. They have sacked opposing QB’s 25 times this year and are only allowing 232 passing yards per game. Of course, Cousins will be looking for Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen when he drops back. The combo makes up one of the top receiving duos in the league. Thielen missed last week with a hamstring injury but is expected to be on the field on Sunday. KC’s secondary will have their hands full and will need the pass rush to get home in a hurry. It appears DT Chris Jones will be back this week, which will help. They sacked Aaron Rodgers 5 times last week, but I think the Vikings play-action game will get the ball out fast enough to keep Cousins upright.

Dalvin Cook and the rushing game may determine who comes out on top. Cook is the leagues leading rusher, and the Minnesota offense runs through him. The Vikings are running the ball 30 times per game, which is producing 160 yards of offense. Their ability to run has helped them to convert 44% of their 3rd downs, and they have possessed the ball for over 33 minutes the last three games. Kansas City’s rush defense may not be up to this challenge. They have four times allowed over 180 rushing yards but have played a little better in the last two weeks. But I don’t think they can slow down Cook and the Viking rushing attack. Minnesota has only twice been held under 120 yards rushing this year. Once was by the Bears, the other was by Philadelphia – and that was primarily because the Viking passing game was shredding the Eagle secondary. Look for Cook, and the other Viking backs to gain big yards, keep the chains and clock moving, and Mahomes on the sideline.

Minnesota’s Defense Can Slow Down Mahomes or Dominate Moore

Patrick Mahomes appears ready to step back onto the Arrowhead turf to lead the Chiefs offense. Mahomes practiced all week, but took Matt Moore ran with the starters, so exactly who will start may not be known until game time. Mahomes has been magnificent again this year, but his stats are not as gaudy as last year. He has been hampered by a sprained ankle most of the year and two weeks ago dislocated his kneecap. Expectations were that he would miss 3 to 4 weeks, but he will be back two weeks (17 days since he was injured on a Thursday) after the injury. Mahomes didn’t play up to his high standards while hobbled with the ankle, and we shouldn’t expect an MVP performance this week if Mahomes suits up. He was held under 300 yards in consecutive weeks against mediocre pass defenses from Indy and Houston. Now Mahomes will face the best pass defense he has seen this year, with the Vikings giving up only 224 yards per game and surrendering more than 300 yards only once. Moore proved he could run the KC attack, but the Vikings defense would be a lot bigger challenge than Green Bay was last week. Minnesota is 8th in sacks and will dial up pressures to see how mobile Mahomes is. If it is Moore, Zimmer will probably make the veteran figure out various zone coverages and count on his front 4 to get pressure. In either case, the Vikings will not let Tyreek Hill get behind them, meaning KC will have to sustain drives and convert in the red zone. KC is 24th in the league scoring touchdowns when they get to the red zone, which will also be a factor in this game.

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Minnesota’s Defense Can Slow Down Mahomes or Dominate Moore

Patrick Mahomes appears ready to step back onto the Arrowhead turf to lead the Chiefs offense. Mahomes practiced all week, but took Matt Moore ran with the starters, so exactly who will start may not be known until game time. Mahomes has been magnificent again this year, but his stats are not as gaudy as last year. He has been hampered by a sprained ankle most of the year and two weeks ago dislocated his kneecap. Expectations were that he would miss 3 to 4 weeks, but he will be back two weeks (17 days since he was injured on a Thursday) after the injury. Mahomes didn’t play up to his high standards while hobbled with the ankle, and we shouldn’t expect an MVP performance this week if Mahomes suits up. He was held under 300 yards in consecutive weeks against mediocre pass defenses from Indy and Houston. Now Mahomes will face the best pass defense he has seen this year, with the Vikings giving up only 224 yards per game and surrendering more than 300 yards only once. Moore proved he could run the KC attack, but the Vikings defense would be a lot bigger challenge than Green Bay was last week. Minnesota is 8th in sacks and will dial up pressures to see how mobile Mahomes is. If it is Moore, Zimmer will probably make the veteran figure out various zone coverages and count on his front 4 to get pressure. In either case, the Vikings will not let Tyreek Hill get behind them, meaning KC will have to sustain drives and convert in the red zone. KC is 24th in the league scoring touchdowns when they get to the red zone, which will also be a factor in this game.

The Chiefs Can’t Run the Ball

I think the difference in this game will come down to the Chiefs not being able to run the ball. The 88 rushing yards KC had last week against Green Bay was the most they had in 4 October games. LeSean McCoy has taken over as the lead back and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, but he is only averaging nine carries per game and had a crucial fumble last week. Andy Reid doesn’t commit to the run, and that has contributed to the Chiefs problems in the red zone and their time of possession problems. The Vikings allow the 7th fewest rushing yards per game in the league, so don’t expect KC’s rushing problems to go away this week. Kansas City has to be able to make the Vikings defense respect the run and have manageable 3rd downs, or the Viking pass rushers will tee off on 3rd and long. Reid certainly will put a premium on keeping the chains moving this week, but if McCoy and Damien Williams are averaging 1 or 2 yards per carry, Reid will have to call passes, especially if they fall behind by double-digit points. Reid has been able to hide the weakness of his running game most of the year, but I don’t think he can this week.

Play the Vikings -1.5

The play this week is to take the Vikings and give the 1½ points. Mahomes at less than 100%, will not be able to work his magic against a fierce Viking defense, and Moore would be overmatched. Minnesota keeps rolling.