Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons Free Pick for Week 9

Minnesota Vikings (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 9

Date/Time: Sunday November 5th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: MIN +5/ATL -5
Moneyline: MIN +175/ATL -205
Total: 37.5

Last week, the Minnesota Vikings’ organization took a big hit when QB Kirk Cousins went down for the season with a torn Achilles injury. The Vikings’ entire offense is centered around their passing attack. WR Justin Jefferson is already serving a stint on the IR, and the loss of Cousins nearly erases all of the Vikings’ weapons on the offensive side of the football. On Sunday, Minnesota will attempt to pick up the pieces of the offense when they travel to face the Atlanta Falcons inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Despite the injury concerns on the side of Minnesota, the Falcons are also continuing to struggle with concerns on the offensive side of the football, which makes this week’s matchup against Minnesota weirdly intriguing.

The Falcons have had big issues at the quarterback position with Desmond Ridder. In last week’s loss to the Tennessee Titans, Ridder was knocked out of the game with an apparent concussion. However, it was revealed later that Ridder could have returned, but the Head Coach Arthur Smith elected to go with QB Taylor Heinicke for the remainder of the game. While Heinicke actually played decently, the Falcons’ concerns will carry into this week’s matchup against the Vikings, especially with star WR Drake London now nursing a hamstring injury. As a result, the Vikings and Falcons have the lowest projected total (37.5 points) for the entire NFL weekend in what could be a least desirable offensive showdown.

Vikings vs. Falcons Betting Analysis

With WR Justin Jefferson still on the shelf, the loss of Cousins, and a non-existent running threat from tailbacks Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison, the Vikings do not have a lot of hope on the horizon. On Tuesday, the Vikings did trade for QB Joshua Dobbs prior to the trade deadline. Dobbs has been the starter at Arizona this season, but QB Kyler Murray is expected to return soon. To be honest, Dobbs has not really shown a lot to offer this Vikings offense. The former Cardinals QB has been limited to short-intermediate range passes due to his inaccuracy down the field. Personally, I’m afraid that is going to make this Minnesota offense too predictable, with opposing defenses pressing more often.

For this week’s matchup, the Vikings have not named Dobbs the starter. In fact, QB Jaren Hall could get the start for Week 9 while Dobbs is brought up to speed. Either way, I expect the Vikings to attempt to run the ball heavier this week but unfortunately it will be a poor matchup against a Falcons defense that has limited enemies to just 102 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile the Falcons offense may have their own share of concerns but I do believe Atlanta can be successful against a weaker Minnesota defense. The Falcons’ ability to run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will be ideal for this matchup. If they can just get a little help at the quarterback position, it should be enough to get the victory!

Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• The Vikings have hit the under in 6 straight games.
• The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Falcons.
• The Vikings are 4-1 SU in the last five games against the Falcons.
• The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Falcons are 5-1 SU in the last six games at home.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in 5 of the last six games.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in seven of the last nine games against the Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

I’m not trying to kick a team when they are down, but I have watched Minnesota closely this year. The Vikings are at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Without a few big plays or turnovers, the Falcons should take care of business and perhaps rather easily.

Jay’s Pick: Take the Falcons -5