Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals Analysis & Free Pick

Minnesota Vikings (7-6 SU, 7-4-2 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-6, 6-6-1), 12/16/23

When: 1 pm ET Saturday, Dec. 16

Where: Paycor Stadium

TV: NFLN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Minn +3.5/Cin -3.5 (Tease the game up to 20 points using a massive NFL teaser found only at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money line: Min +145/Cincy -170

Total: 40.5

The NFL offers up a trifecta of good games to watch and bet this Saturday, beginning with the 7-6 Bengals and 7-6 Vikings in Cincinnati.

Not too long ago, Minnesota thought it had found an answer at quarterback in the wake of losing its starter for the season to injury. Now, they’re not sure again.

Meanwhile, the Bengals were expected to fold after losing their starting QB also for the season. Suddenly they’ve found they’ve got another guy who can play the position.

Betting Market

The Week 15 NFL betting market opened Cincinnati at -4 for Saturday, with an over/under of right around 39.5. Early betting action then shaved that spread to 3.5 and bumped that total to 40.5.

Vikings-Bengals Betting Preview

Minnesota just snapped a two-game losing skid with one of the ugliest wins of recent memory, 3-0 at Las Vegas last Sunday. That game played 0-0 through 58 minutes before the Vikings, with 3rd-stringer Nick Mullens at QB, drove 56 yards to a field goal. Minnesota then secured the W with an interception.

The Vikings only produced 231 yards of total offense but held the Raiders, who are also operating with a backup quarterback, to just 202 yards. Minnesota also won the ground battle 132-56.

The Vikings, despite their troubles at QB, have now out-gained three of their last four opponents and out-rushed four of their last five foes.

Two games ago, Minnesota lost to Chicago on a late field goal 12-10. Three games ago, they lost on a late touchdown at Denver 21-20.

But at 7-6 overall, the Vikings would be the No. 6 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 2-0, both SU and ATS its last two times out after beating Indianapolis last Sunday 34-14. The Bengals, with back-up Jake Browning making his third start at QB, scored the first 14 points of the game. allowed the Colts to tie it at 14-14 into the half but won the second half 20-0 and covered at -3.

Cincinnati out-gained Indianapolis 385-272 and out-rushed the Colts 111-46.

Three weeks ago, in their first game with Browning at QB, the Bengals lost at Pittsburgh 16-10. But then they won at Jacksonville 34-31 in OT.

At 7-6 overall, Cincinnati trails 7-6 Indianapolis by a tie-breaker in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.

On the injury front, Minnesota lists WR Justin Jefferson, leading rusher Alexander Mattison, and three starters along the O line as questionable for Saturday. And the Bengals list WR Chase and TE Boyd – who combine for over 200 targets this season – also as “questionable”

These two teams last met two seasons ago, a 27-24 Cincinnati overtime victory. Burrow quarterbacked against Cousins that day.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played just one common opponent this season, San Francisco. Back in October, Minnesota out-played the 49ers in Minneapolis and won 22-17. The following week, Cincinnati out-played San Francisco out at Santa Clara and won 31-17.

NFL Betting Trends

The Vikings are 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS since losing starting QB Cousins for the season to injury.

The Bengals are 2-1 both SU and ATS since losing starting QB Burrow for the season to injury.

Vikings QB Mullens is 5-12 SU, 7-10 ATS as an NFL starter.

Totals Report

The Unders are 10-3 in Vikings games this season, which are averaging 39 total points.

The Overs are 7-6 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 44 points.

Over the last three weeks, the Overs are 26-18 in the NFL, but on the season, the Unders are 116-92.

Free NFL Betting Pick

We’re calling this QB comparison a wash because Browning’s dreamy play can’t last forever, while we’ve liked some things Mullens has done in the past. From there, Minnesota might be banged up on offense, but they also own the better defense. The Vikings just continue to play close games, and three and a hook in our pocket sounds like a good idea for this one. We like Minnesota, plus the points.