Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins : Week 1 NFL Predictions & Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins – NFL Week 1 Betting Pick & Predictions

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 8

Where: Hard Rock Stadium

TV: CBS

NFL Betting Odds

• Point Spread: Jax +3.5/Mia -3.5 (Make sure you’re wagering at the best betting sites!)
• Money Line: Jags +150/Phins +180
• Over/Under: 49 points

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins Game Preview

It’s a Sunshine State showdown when the offensive-minded Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars kick off their seasons Sunday afternoon down in South Florida.

Miami is looking to take the next step after two straight wild-card round playoff exits. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is eager to return to the playoffs after a disappointing late-season collapse last year.

NFL Betting Line Movement

The Week 1 NFL betting market opened with Miami as a three-point favorite over Jacksonville, with an over/under of 49. Early betting action nudged the Dolphins to -3.5.

Weather forecasts predict sunny skies and temperatures around 90 degrees in Miami, with a slight chance of rain.

Jaguars Betting Outlook

Jacksonville started strong last season with an 8-3 record, featuring key wins against Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Houston. However, a 1-5 finish kept them out of the playoffs. Over the offseason, the Jaguars lost wide receiver Calvin Ridley but added LSU WR Brian Thomas and reinforced their defense with several draft picks.

The Jaguars are currently catching +2000 odds to win the AFC and +4500 for the Super Bowl, with an over/under win total of 8.5.

Dolphins Betting Outlook

Miami is aiming for its third consecutive playoff appearance under Coach McDaniel and QB Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins played 11-6 last season before losing in the wild-card round to Kansas City.

This season, Miami looks to improve on hosting playoff games instead of facing colder climates in January. With minimal offseason changes, the Dolphins return a high-powered offense and solid defense. They are listed at +1000 to win the AFC and +2200 for the Super Bowl, with a wins O/U of 10.5.

By the Numbers: Key Stats from Last Season

• Jacksonville Jaguars: Ranked 13th in total offense (340 YPG), 24th in rushing (97 YPG), 22nd in total defense (343 YPG), and 9th against the run (103 YPG).
• Miami Dolphins: Ranked 1st in offense (401 YPG), 6th in rushing (136 YPG), 10th in defense (318 YPG), and 7th against the run (97 YPG).

Jaguars-Dolphins Recent Matchups

Jacksonville is 3-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) over the last four meetings with Miami. Their most recent game, three seasons ago, saw the Jaguars win 23-20 on a last-second field goal. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 319 yards, while Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa passed for 329 yards and two touchdowns.

NFL Betting Trends to Watch

• Miami went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home last season.
• Jacksonville went 5-3 SU and ATS on the road last season.
• Both teams faced five common opponents last season, with Jacksonville going 3-3 SU and ATS, while Miami went 1-6 SU and ATS.

Totals Report

• Unders played 9-8 in Jaguars games last season, averaging 44 total points per game.
• Overs played 9-8 in Dolphins games last season, averaging 52 total points per game.
• Unders played 12-4 in NFL Week 1 games last season.

Free NFL Betting Pick: Dolphins -3.5

We give Miami the edge at quarterback, offense, and defense. The Dolphins should win the ground game, and teams that outrush their opponents cover the spread 65% of the time in the NFL. We’re surprised the line isn’t higher and will confidently back the Dolphins to cover at -3.5.