Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Pick & ATS Prediction

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans, 12/15/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 15
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: CBS

Point spread: Mia +2.5/Hous -2.5
Money line: Mia +135/Hous -155
Over/under: 47

The 8-5 Texans pick up their chase of a second straight AFC South title when they host the 6-7 Dolphins Sunday afternoon.

Houston’s won two of its last three games and is coming off its bye week.

Meanwhile Miami sits near the edge of playoff elimination, two games off the pace in the AFC wild-card race, with time running out.

NFL Betting Odds

The NFL Week 15 betting market opened Houston at -2.5 over Miami, with an O/U of right around 47. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS over its last five games after outlasting the Jets in overtime last Sunday 32-26. The Dolphins, favored at -6, trailed 23-15 through three quarters. But Miami tied it at 26-26 on a field goal in the waning moments of regulation, then drove the opening possession of overtime 70 yards to a game-winning touchdown.

The Dolphins got out-gained by the Jets 402-375 and only managed 44 yards on the ground. They just won the game.

A month ago Miami beat the Rams out in Los Angeles 23-15. The Dolphins then returned home and defeated the Raiders 34-19, then beat New England 34-15. Miami then lost up at Green Bay 30-17 but bounced back last week to defeat New York.

So the Dolphins are now 5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS this season with Tua Tagovailoa at QB, averaging 25 PPG.

At 6-7 overall Miami trails 8-5 Denver by two games for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings. But the Broncos have some tough games yet to play. Could the Dolphins make up a couple games on the Broncos and win a tie-breaker? Maybe. But probably not if they lose Sunday.

Texans Betting Preview

Meanwhile Houston is 2-1 over its last three games after winning at Jacksonville two weeks ago 23-20. The Texans then enjoyed last weekend off.

Houston, favored at -3 over the Jaguars, led that game 23-6 late, before allowing Jacksonville to make the final score a bit more interesting.

The Texans got out-gained by the Jags 373-326 but nearly half the yardage the Houston defense gave up came in prevent mode.

The Texans started 5-1 this season, with a win over Buffalo, then lost three of their next four games. But two of those losses came on field goals on the last plays of the game against Green Bay and Detroit, two pretty good teams. Houston then trounced Dallas but laid an egg at home against Tennessee, before beating Jacksonville.

At 8-5 overall the Texans lead the AFC South by two games over 6-7 Indianapolis. But Houston’s got a couple tough games coming up, too, vs. Kansas City and Baltimore, so nothing is certain yet.

These teams last met two seasons ago, a 30-15 Miami home victory. Tagovailoa quarterbacked the Dolphins that day against Kyle Allen for the Texans.

On the injury front Houston could be without as many as three defensive starters Sunday.

By the Numbers

Miami is averaging 332 YPG on offense this season, 105 rushing. But that YPG figure jumps to 357 in games Tagovailoa played. Defensively the Dolphins are holding opponents to 318 YPG, 106 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin (Sagarin.com) ranks as the 23rd-toughest schedule in the League.

Houston is averaging 335 YPG on offense, 114 on the ground, while holding foes to 309 YPG, 110 on the ground. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 17 schedule.

Common Opponents

These teams have played seven common opponents this season, members of the AFC South and East and the Packers. Houston played those foes to 6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS and +35 YPG, Miami to 4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS but +46 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Houston ranks 4th in the League in turnover margin at +10, Miami 16th at -2. Teams that win the turnover battle are covering the spread 73 percent of the time this season.

Totals Report

The unders are 7-6 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 43 total points. That PG average jumps to 48 with Tagovailoa.

The unders are 8-4 in Texans games, which are averaging 46 points.

The overs are 107-100 in the NFL this season.

Game Props

Both teams to score 24.5 points is catching +350.

Free NFL Betting Pick

We’ve loved Joe Mixon for a while and never understood why Cincinnati didn’t just feed that guy. This season Houston is 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS when Mixon runs for 100 yards. Meanwhile Miami is averaging just 59 YPG on the ground over its last five games. So we expect the Texans to win the ground battle Sunday. Also, Houston is coming off what we believe to be a well-timed bye while the Dolphins went to OT last week. Finally, we’re a little suprised the line on this game isn’t higher. We’ll take the Texans Sunday, minus the short spread.