Miami Dolphins (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-2 SU, 2-3
ATS), Week 6 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 17, 2010, Lambeau
Field, Green Bay, Wis., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Mia OFF/GB OFF (Rodgers status is ?)
Over/Under Total: OFF
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Nobody knows what to expect this Sunday when the Miami Dolphins board
the plane for their trip north to legendary Lambeau Field to face the
Green Bay Packers, especially the Dolphins and their coaching staff.
After spending their bye week last week setting up a gameplan to
attack the Packers, the Dolphins learned late Sunday along with
everyone else that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a
concussion at the end of last weeks 16-13 overtime loss at Washington.
And its not just Rodgers who is questionable for the Packers, as
they are currently listing 21 players on their injury list (eight are
listed as questionable for Sunday).
So its a double-edged sword for the Dolphins. They might catch a
break and not have to face the Packers offense with Rodgers calling
the shots, but they still have to prepare as if he will play on
Sunday. Now the Dolphins also have to prepare for what they think
they might face if backup quarterback Matt Flynn is forced to play,
which is a complete guessing game because Flynn has all of 17 pass
attempts in two games as an NFL player.
Its no surprise to anyone that because of the uncertainty of Rodgers
and several of the other Packers that the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas
have yet to release any odds for Sundays contest. The game will
likely remain off the board up until kickoff, unless word comes down
later in the week as to the status of Rodgers.
With so much still up in the air its hard to handicap this game, but
there are a few things we do know that we can break down before the
point spreads are released.
Miamis offense relies heavily on the running game of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but the ground attack has not been as effective
this season (107 ypg 16th) so quarterback Chad Henne has been
forced to throw it more often. Henne has struggled, even with new
receiver Brandon Marshall to throw to, hitting only 64 percent of his
passes and throwing almost as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (5).
The Dolphins are also stalling out in the red zone and its reflected
in their scoring numbers, as they are near the bottom of the league
with just an average of 16.5 points scored each week.
The good news for the Dolphins is that their defense is capable of
shutting down the Packers passing game, even with Rodgers at the
trigger, because their pass defense is ranked 4th overall allowing
just 181.5 yards per game.
If Flynn is forced to play he wont have the luxury of a dominate
running game to rely on, as the Packers have lost their main running
back Ryan Grant weeks ago and are ranked 15th in the middle of the
league with a 107 yards per game average.
The Packers only hope is to rely upon their defense, which is better
than their numbers indicate (14th overall 317.2 ypg) because they
have been keeping teams out of the end zone (17.8 ppg 8th).
The Dolphins special teams units were exposed two weeks ago on Monday
Night against the Patriots, another area where the Packers could take
advantage if their depth wasnt so compromised because of their
injury woes.
For what its worth, these two teams last played each other in 2006
in what turned into a 34-24 victory by the Packers (as 6-point
underdogs) in Miami. Although Im not entirely sure why the Dolphins
were so heavily favored in that game since they had Joey Harrington
as their QB at the time.
GB has won all three of their head-to-head games against the Fins played at Lambeau Field (in 1997, 99 and 2002, going 2-1
ATS in those same three games. Two of the three games stayed under
the total.
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Even if a point spread and total are released for
this game, Im staying far, far away. With Miamis issues on offense
and strong defense, if Flynn is given the start Id expect the total
to be in the 35 to 38 range. An under play might be a worthy wager,
but without a number youll have to make that call on your own.
