Miami Dolphins (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date/Time: Monday, November 13, 2017 at 8:30 P.M. ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium
TV: ESPN
by Jerbeek, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mia +9/Car -9
Over/Under Total: 40
The Miami Dolphins travel to Charlotte on Monday night to take on the Carolina Panthers in Week 10 action. This game features 2 teams heading in opposite directions as Carolina has won its past 2 games and Miami has lost its last 2 games. The Panthers sit a half game behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South division and the Dolphins are fighting to stay relevant in the AFC wild card race. The Dolphins record of 4-4 may not be indicative of the team they are since they have been outscored 116-179 on the season. This may be a sign as to why the Dolphins decided to trade one of their best offensive weapons in Jay Ajayi at the trade deadline to the Philadelphia Eagles. Carolina also made a surprising move at the trade deadline when they sent their leading WR Kelvin Benjamin to the Buffalo Bills.
Miami entered the season with high hopes but then starting QB Ryan Tannehill went down with a torn ACL in preseason. The Dolphins coaxed Jay Cutler out of the broadcast booth to come and be the starter in a move that has not worked out so well. Cutler was replaced by Matt Moore against the New York Jets in week 7 and Moore rallied the Dolphins for a win and earning him the starting job while Cutler was out. Moore did not fare so well as the starter as they were shutout against Jacksonville in his first start. The Dolphins have really struggled on offense as they are averaging only 16.5 points per game. Illustrating their problems is the fact that they are only averaging 4.5 yards per play against teams that give up 5.4 yards.
Carolinas offense has struggled despite the latest winning streak as they have only scored 40 points in the last 3 games. QB Cam Newton is only completing 62% of his passes and his QB rating is only 78.4 as compared to his career high of 99.4 when the Panthers made their Super Bowl run. Rookie RB Christion McCaffery has been a bright spot in the passing game with 54 catches and 406 yards but he has struggled running the ball with a 2.9 yards per carry average. This has led to the Panthers needing to use Jonathan Stewart more and becoming more predictable depending on who is in the lineup. Kelvin Benjamin was leading the team receiving but those duties will now go to Devin Funchess with the Benjamin trade. I would also expect the Panthers to use McCaffery even more in the passing game as they line him up in the slot position more.
On defense, the Dolphins have been stingy in yards but they have still given up quite a few points because they are giving up a point for every 14 yards gained which is a bad ratio for a NFL team. The Dolphins run defense has been good but teams have had success throwing on them. I look for Carolina to take advantage of this with lots of short passed to McCaffery. If you are a DFS player, I think McCaffery will have catch a lot passes in this game and may be a good value play. However, dont expect much from him in regards to rushing.
The Carolina defense has been very good as they are only allowing 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 5.6. Overall on the season they have allowed 17.7 points per games against teams that average 23 points per game so they are keeping their team in the game every week.
Jerbeeks Pick to Cover the Point Spread: As I said earlier, I think these are 2 teams headed in opposite directions. I also think that both teams are still trying to figure out how to replace key offensive players. I think Carolina will shut down the Dolphins offense and win by a score of 24-10. This would indicate a play on both the Panthers and the under; however, I dont like laying that many points in the NFL. My recommendation is to play under the total of 40. – Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a 50% bonus up to $250 at one of the web’s oldest and most trusted betting sites: BOVADA