Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Wildcard Betting Predictions

Miami Dolphins (9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)
AFC Wildcard Weekend
Date/Time: Sunday January 15th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)
Where: Highmark Stadium Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: MIA +10.5/BUF -10.5 (Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE when you use bonus code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook! This offer is good for $300 up to $300 if you want to go bigger!)
Moneyline: MIA +455/BUF -575
Total: 44.5

In recent weeks, the Miami Dolphins have struggled tremendously with a streak of 5 straight losses, which nearly ended their chances at the playoffs despite being one of the best teams in the NFL through the first half of the season. Last week, Miami had one final chance to capture their playoff berth and just narrowly pulled out an 11-6 victory over the New York Jets. Obviously, the Dolphins were not at full strength without star QB Tua Tagovailoa who has been sidelined for multiple weeks with yet another concussion. However, Miami found a way to pull out an ugly win to capture their first playoff appearance since 2016. The Dolphins’ reward will be a trip north this Sunday in a battle against the AFC’s No. 2 seed in the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium.

In reality, the Dolphins’ chances to contend this Sunday perhaps rely on the availability of Tagovailoa, who has still not been cleared to practice. If Tagovailoa is unable to play, the Dolphins will turn to backup QB Teddy Bridgewater who has completed 62% passing for 683 yards with four touchdowns and four picks in 3 starts this season. As a result, Buffalo is currently listed as a rather large 10.5-point favorites despite the fact both teams have produced two extremely close games earlier this year. Even if Tagovailoa returns, many could argue Buffalo is still playing at a very high level to warrant the 10.5-point betting spread. The Bills returned from the Damar Hamlin incident to record a 35-23 emotional victory over the Patriots last week, which was fueled by two kickoff returns for touchdowns. Needless to say, the Bills appear to have picked up where they left off, which now includes a streak of 7 straight wins, and will be heavy favorites once again at home against Miami.

Prior meetings this season: Miami vs. Buffalo

Sunday’s AFC Wildcard match-up between the Dolphins and Bills will be the 3rd meeting this season between both AFC East rivals. Looking back at those prior meetings, the Dolphins pulled out a 21-19 victory in week three despite the fact Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw for 400 yards through the air. For those that remember, the Dolphins only produced 212 total yards but came up with some valuable turnovers and defensive stops in the 2nd half to capture the victory in one of their most anticipated games in recent memory.

Then, in week 15, fans got a taste of the shootout paced offensive game that most expected in the first meeting. Led once again by QB Josh Allen who threw for over 300 yards with four touchdowns and added 77 yards on the ground, the Bills pulled out a hard-fought 32-29 victory. Unlike the first meeting, the Miami offense received help from WR Jaylen Waddle (3 receptions, 114 yards, and a TD) and RB Raheem Mostert (17 carries, 136 yards), who helped produce more than 400 yards of total offense in the close loss. Therefore, Miami has shown the ability to not only beat Buffalo, but they have remained within striking distance in each contest this season, but they undoubtedly will need another big offensive effort similar to their week 15 performance to give themselves the best opportunity this Sunday.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Breakdown

If you look at both previous games and study the way these two teams match up against each other, there are a few things that become extremely clear. For starters, Buffalo’s defense has held Miami’s air raid in check in both prior games, which should not be surprising considering the Bills have a pretty strong defensive secondary, especially when healthy. For Miami to keep this game within reach, the Dolphins’ defense and running game has to provide support.

The Bills have been susceptible to opposing rushing offenses, and we saw Miami have a lot of success in the week 15 meeting. Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert is questionable after breaking his thumb in the victory against the Jets last week. His availability is worth keeping track of throughout the week, especially since Jeff Wilson has slowed during the 2nd half of the season. If the Dolphins are without Tagovailoa and Mostert, their chances of contending are absolutely minimal. However, if both stars are able to return to action, this double-digit betting line becomes very intriguing, and that is why both Dolphins players’ availability should be followed closely throughout the week.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

• Miami is 1-5 SU in the last six games
• Miami has hit the “over” in six of the last seven games on the road
• Miami is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against AFC opponents
• Miami is 0-6 SU in the last six games on the road at Buffalo
• Buffalo is 7-0 SU in the last seven games
• Buffalo is 11-1 SU in the last 12 games at home
• Buffalo is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings against Miami
• Buffalo has hit the “under” in seven of the last ten games against AFC opponents
• Buffalo has hit the “over” in 11 of the last 16 games against Miami

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Prediction

Before anyone pulls the trigger on this spread, I think we need to know the status of Tagovailoa and Mostert. From some of the early week reports, it really appears Tagovailoa may not be available again, and I believe that is why this spread is so wide. If that holds true, I like the Bills to cruise despite the wide number!

Jay’s Pick: I’m betting the Buffalo Bills at -10.5. Bet your NBA predictions for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus promo code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!