Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Best Bet for Week 15

Miami Dolphins (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (10-3 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, December 17, 8:15 PM EST
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: NFL Network

Point Spread: Buf –7.5 /Mia + 7.5
Over/Under Total: 42

The Miami Dolphins head to Western New York for a Saturday Night division clash with the Buffalo Bills. BOVADA.LV is making the Bills 7.5 point favorites, and the game total is 42. It’s never fun to lay more than a touchdown in a division rivalry, but it’s less fun to bet on Tua the way he has looked the last few weeks, so let’s join the Bills Mafia this week and buy a Bills ticket. Here is the handicap.

Miami’s Offense Has Been Exposed

The Dolphin attack opened the year looking like the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were running wide open, and Tua Tagovailoa was getting them the ball. Until two weeks ago, the most common phrase in the NFL was that the Dolphins hadn’t lost a game that Tua started and finished. That was before they had just completed two games in California against the 49ers and Chargers. Both teams pummeled the Dolphin attack, revealing a lot of kinks in Miami’s armor and handing the Fins 2 losses. Tua was constantly under pressure in San Francisco, leading to 3 interceptions, and followed that performance up with a 10 for 28 outing for 145 yards against the Chargers – not exactly a spectacular defense. Tua was unstoppable against the Bears, Lions, Texans, and Browns but looked scared for his life the last two weeks. The rushing game didn’t bail him out in those contests, averaging only 62 yards per game. Coach Mike McDaniel abandoned the run and put the game on Tua’s shoulders, which obviously didn’t work out. Miami will see a Bills defense on Saturday that is just as hungry and aggressive as they saw the last two weeks, and I expect similar results.

Buffalo’s defense has been up and down this year but has played well since LB Matt Milano has returned to full health. Buffalo annihilated Mike White last week, sacking the Jet QB 4 times and hitting him hard multiple other times. They will smell blood again this week, knowing that Tua will get rattled as the pressure gets cranked up. Buffalo ranks 9th in the league is sacks but only got to Tua and Teddy Bridgwater twice in their week three contest. They held the Dolphins to 41 rushing yards on 17 carries, and they should be just as stingy this week. It is looking like a long Saturday night for Tua and the Miami offense.

nBuffalo’s Offense Is Getting In Gear

Josh Allen started the year playing like an MVP favorite before suffering an elbow injury and looking mediocre for a stretch. Things were starting to heat up again before last week’s performance against the Jets. I think we can write off that performance to knowing that the Defense had that game in hand and playing not to make a mistake and expect Allen to rebound this week. Buffalo had the ball 40 minutes and ran up almost 500 yards in the week three game in Miami, but did not find the endzone after reaching paydirt twice in the first 20 minutes of the game, then only adding one field goal the rest of the way. Look for the Bills to be more efficient on their home turf. Buffalo has begun working James Cook into the backfield rotation, and he is adding a spark, but Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis should be in for big days, along with Allen running the ball.

The Dolphins D is similar to their offense. They do well against bad teams but can’t hold up against better competition. Last week Justin Herbert completed 39 passes on 51 attempts, while Mike Williams and Keenan Allen combined for 208 yards and a score. I’m expecting similar results this week against Buffalo’s stellar receivers. Miami will get some pressure against Allen – they sacked him 4 times in week 3 – but Justin Fields scampered for 178 yards against this Defense a month ago, so Allen is going to make some big plays on the ground. Look for the Bill offense to again control the game this week, but this time look for them to put the ball in the endzone.

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This Is A Great Spot For Buffalo

The Bills will have revenge on their mind this week. Miami won the first meeting in September despite Buffalo outplaying them. Buffalo is only 1-2 in their division, so they know they have to take care of business against the AFC East to keep home-field advantage in the playoffs. But the biggest advantage for Buffalo will be the weather. The forecast calls for a cold, windy evening in Orchard Park. Allen has proven he can drive the ball through the wind, while Tua struggles to push the ball down the field even in good conditions. This is Miami’s 3rd consecutive road game, 2 in California, now 1 in Western New York. Miami has injuries in their backfield, and Hill is also banged up. It’s a big hill to climb for the squad from South Beach.

Lay The Points With Buffalo

As the season winds down and the playoff race heats up, these teams are showing their true characters. Buffalo is a Super Bowl contender, while Miami is not yet ready for prime time. Lay the points and ride with the Bills.