Miami at Buffalo Best Bet | NFL Week 9 Predictions
Miami Dolphins (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (6-2, 5-3)
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 3
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: CBS
NFL betting odds: Mia +6/Buff -6
Money line: Mia +220/Buff -270
Over/under: 49
The Bills are hot again while the Dolphins are nearing must-win mode, heading into Sunday afternoon’s AFC East bout in Orchard Park.
Buffalo just extended its winning streak to three with a victory on the other side of the country last Sunday. Meanwhile, Miami just got its starting quarterback back last week, but it still blew a game against Arizona.
The Bills own this rivalry as of late, winning 14 of the last 16 meetings. Can Buffalo extend that run, too? Or do the Dolphins have an upset bid in them?
NFL Betting Odds
The NFL Week 9 betting market opened Buffalo at -6.5 over Miami, with an O/U of right around 49. Early betting action shaved that spread to -6.
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Dolphins Betting Preview
Miami is trying to bounce back this week after losing a heartbreaker at home to Arizona last week, 28-27. The Dolphins, with Tua back at QB, scored the first 10 points of the game and still led 27-18 midway through the fourth quarter. But Miami then allowed the Cardinals to drive 70 yards to a touchdown and 73 yards to a field goal at the buzzer to lose.
The Dolphins got out-gained by Arizona 389-377.
On the prop board, Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards, which played under his passing yardage total of 250.5. But RB Achane, with help from a 47-yard bolt, tallied 97 yards on the ground, which played over his rushing total of 57.5. And RB Mostert, getting back into the swing of things, scored two touchdowns, which paid off at +500.
Two weeks ago, Miami, still without Tua, blew a 10-0 lead and lost at Indianapolis 16-10. So the Dolphins are 1-5 SU and ATS over their last six games, the only win coming against New England.
At 2-5 overall, Miami trails the 4-3 Chargers by two games in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings. So they’re not out of anything yet. But the Dolphins also need nine wins over their last ten games to play over their season betting total of 10.5, and that’s probably not going to happen.
Bills Betting Preview
Meanwhile, Buffalo rides a three-game winning streak into Sunday after beating Seattle 31-10 last Sunday. The Bills drove their first possession of the game 90 yards to a touchdown, led 14-3 at the half, then scored the first 17 points of the second half to pull away and cover at -3.
For those interested in the travel aspect of NFL betting, teams based in the Eastern time zone are now 6-4 SU and ATS, and they are playing in the Pacific time zone this season.
Buffalo out-gained the Seahawks 445-233, out-rushed Seattle 164-32, and dominated time of possession 38:22.
On the prop board, Bills QB Allen threw for 283 yards, which played over his passing total of 227.5, and RB Cook ran for 117 yards, which played over his rushing total of 63.5.
Two weeks ago, Buffalo struggled for a half against Tennessee, then exploded in the second half to win 34-10. Three weeks ago, the Bills beat the Jets 23-20.
At 6-2 overall, Buffalo leads the AFC East by 3 1/2 games already. But they also trail 7-0 Kansas City by a game and a half in the battle for the top seed in the AFC.
Buffalo also needs five wins over its last nine games to play over its season betting total of 10.5.
On the injury front, the Bills are listing WRs Cooper and Samuel as questionable for Sunday while the Dolphins list five (!) defensive starters as Q? Bettors might want to check later reports before betting on this game.
Dolphins-Bills Recent History
Buffalo owns a five-game winning streak on Miami, going 3-2 ATS in the process. Last year, the Bills swept the two games from the Dolphins by scores of 48-20 and 21-14. Then Buffalo won the first meeting between the teams this season back in Week 2 in Miami 31-10.
The Bills actually got out-gained by the Dolphins back in September 351-247 but won the turnover battle 3-0, creating a +17 points differential.
Also, that game played under a total of 49.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 59-60 SU, 52-66 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 83-40 SU, 65-57 ATS.
Totals Report
- Unders are 5-2 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 36 total points.
- Totals are split 4-4 in Bills games, which are averaging 47 points.
- Unders are 5-3 over the last eight meetings between these teams.
- Overs are 65-57 in the NFL this season.
Touchdown Props
Miami WR Waddle, second on the team in targets with 36 but without a touchdown, is catching +190 to score one TD and +1100 to score two.
Buffalo WR Hollins, who could get some reps if Cooper can’t go, is catching +350 to score one TD and +2900 to score two.
The “first score” TD/FG ratio this season sits at 72/50.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Buffalo stands as the better team in this match-up and should win this game outright. However, Tua makes Miami competitive; the Dolphins are averaging 19 PPG in games. Tua took most of the snaps this season, which isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than the 9 PPG in games he didn’t. Also, if not for Dolphins turnovers, the game these teams played back in Week 2 would have been much closer. We won’t call for the outright upset here, but we like Miami plus the points.
