Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Pick 12/1/19

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7 SU, 3-6-2 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (3-8 SU, 6-5 ATS)

NFL Week 13

Date/Time: Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 4:25PM EST

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: CBS

Point Spread: LAC -2.5/DEN +2.5 (GTBets – Deposit $500 and get $500 FREE!)

Over/Under Total: 38.5

The Los Angeles Chargers come into Mile High on Sunday for an AFC West showdown with the Denver Broncos. For the Chargers, it’s tough to be sitting here at 4-7 after a 12-win season last year. But after a week off, maybe they got a little healthier and cleared the air a little. They still get a tough one coming off the bye in Denver at a time when things can get a bit chilly. But Denver might be run a little ragged after losing twice on the road in consecutive weeks. On Sunday, they fell to Buffalo, 20-3. Will they look better at home or is a tough season catching up with him?

The Importance of Game One

Well, maybe it’s not so important after all. These teams played in week five, with Denver taking that road-game, 20-13. After an 0-4 start, it was the Broncos’ first win of the season and started a little spurt where they won two in a row and three of five. It also showed how well the Broncos match up against the Chargers and that even with the Bolts better overall over the last few seasons, the Broncos have been able to compete with them very well. In week five, we saw a still-productive Denver defense making plays, stopping the Chargers’ run-game, and running the ball well enough on their own to keep an upper-hand in that matchup. Maybe they can do more of the same at home.

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Chargers: Underachievement vs. Potential

You can blame injuries and truth be told, not many teams can overcome having one contributor after the next ending up on IR. But they haven’t been very resilient either, and despite still having some good things going for them, it hasn’t materialized into winning results. Close wins from last season became close losses, as all their losses this season are of the one-score variety. They can still air it out with Philip Rivers working with good weapons like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and Hunter Henry. But an offensive line in shambles often prevents him from doing his thing or fails in springing the run-game that opened up the pass so well last season. And on defense, they have one of the best secondaries in the conference despite endless injuries, with playmakers up front like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. But not being clutch and sometimes flimsy against the run has been an Achilles’ heel.

Denver Finished or Refreshed at Home?

With all due respect to Brandon Allen, he’s not anyone’s long-term solution at quarterback. Completing less than 50 percent of his throws, it’s just not working, and Denver was not prepared for life without Flacco. Granted, a home Buffalo defense this season is a hard spot in which to thrive, but a field goal of scoring is pathetic when you have a nice run-game with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, with receiving talent like Courtland Sutton and other ball-catchers who should be more productive. At the end of the day, it isn’t always a breeze trying to cover spreads with Brandon Allen leading the way.

At home, Denver can be a different animal. You might tune in some weeks and see a really flat Denver team, and when you run with that idea, they’ll look good at home. Before running into Buffalo last week, they lost by just four on the road against a good Vikings’ team and beat the Browns here at home. Other than a bad loss to the Chiefs at Mile High, they have either won or lost very narrowly at home in all their other games. For all the different parts of the team that have eroded since their high-water mark, the “D” has held firm, primarily the secondary. They make plays, get after the quarterback, and are pretty stingy at home, averaging just over 18 points a game and that includes when they were run over by KC.

Week Off at Right Time for Bolts?

Let’s also not forget that even going back to San Diego, the Chargers have a traditional knack of doing an about-face and finishing a season strongly to offer hope for the next season that they will invariably fail to deliver on. Could this be one of those Chargers’ teams that looks dead in the water only to spring to life without warning? It could be. With injuries, a major culprit of this being a letdown season, getting healthier could do the trick, and the time off to decompress could also serve them well.

It hasn’t come off this season for the Chargers. You tune in week after week with this dwindling hope that maybe the Chargers from last year will resurface, and the best they show you are the occasional fleeting glimpse. But still, the ceiling is higher than Denver’s by a fairly substantial margin, particularly on offense. Maybe a run-game that hasn’t taken off will here against a Denver “D” that can be exploited on that front. The Chargers are hoping the week off cleared out some of the “stench” from the first 11 games of the season, and maybe they can start this week anew

Take the Home Dog

After two road losses and a pretty emphatic one on Sunday, I think there could be some hidden value with the Broncos this week at home. I still see this as a tough spot for the Chargers, with that defense and how much better the Broncos play at home. Especially, against a team that has played them pretty tough as of late. A week off didn’t make it all better. In a nip-and-tuck game, I’m inclined to take the points on the home team. I’ll go with Denver in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 2.5 points.