Los Angeles Chargers Season Wins Predictions: Over/Under Analysis

Los Angeles Chargers Season Wins Over/Under Pick
Bovada Betting Line: Over 9.5 Wins (+120), Under 9.5 Wins (-160)

Analysis

We see a line on the Chargers here where it’s not even a proposition, with a -160 line on the under as the favorite, with over fetching +120. There have been a slew of changes on this team. With change comes promise, but also the recognition that to go over in this bet, you need ten wins, something they’ve done once in the last five seasons.

Part of the optimism comes from the hiring of Jim Harbaugh, a proven winner with a track-record in the NFL and coming off a title-winning campaign with Michigan. They have a talented quarterback in Justin Herbert and a slew of big-time defensive talent Harbaugh, and his staff hopes to finally whip into shape. The flip side of that equation is the mass exodus of talent, mostly on offense.

Granted, the core of Austin Ekeler, along with receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, never really got the Chargers to where they needed to be, but it’s daunting when such a huge chunk of your offensive talent departs. Sure, age was catching up, and injuries made it problematic with that previous group of contributors, but I’m not sure all of it was properly addressed, with the plucking of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins from the Baltimore backfield, along with the acquisition of wide receiver DJ Chark.

The draft could help, getting a high-end left tackle in Joe Alt, along with second-round receiver Ladd McConkey. There is a growth potential for receiver Quentin Johnston after an uneven rookie season. And Edwards and Dobbins, if healthy, could be productive. It’s just hard to forecast better results for the Chargers overall with what first comes across as an offense that has taken a step back in terms of productivity. There are no stars on this offense with whom Herbert can work, and that’s cause for concern.

QUESTION! DID YOU KNOW YOU CAN BET ON GAMES AT -105 ODDS INSTEAD OF -110? IMAGINE HOW MUCH MONEY THIS WOULD SAVE YOU! FIND THIS KILLER OFFER AT BETANYSPORTS SPORTSBOOK! HOME OF REDUCED JUICE FOOTBALL BETTING!

Still, it’s not like there is nothing here with which Harbaugh can start forging a winning path. The foundation of that might be the defense. While Harbaugh is a former QB and came up coaching-wise on the offensive side of the ball, his teams are usually characterized by a solid defense, as seen in Michigan and previously with the Niners. He is bringing over defensive coordinator Jesse Minter from Michigan with the hopes being that he can get what has been an underachieving Chargers’ defense to start playing according to the talent they possess.

So, while the promise is limited on the offensive side, that doesn’t mean an overhaul of this team can’t begin on the other side of the ball. The added Wolverine linebacker Junior Colson in the draft who should be a good fit, but it’s the presence of Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James that could start coming together properly. Throw in the return of Denzel Perryman and the acquisition of Bud Dupree, we start to see this staff has a lot of pieces on this side of the ball.

The nuts and bolts of whether or not they surpass 9.5 wins is tricky, made all the more difficult by the shifting dynamics within the AFC West. The perennial contenders and defending two-time Super Bowl Champion Chiefs still loom as a thorn in the Chargers’ sides. And trying to pinpoint the immediate trajectories of the Broncos and Raiders is no easy task.

Having to go through the NFC South is perhaps not the toughest divisional assignment, with that quartet of teams going a combined 27-41 last season. The Chargers might get through that OK, but the AFC North is no easy pickings, as the Bolts have to play all four of those teams, none of whom were under .500 last season. The rest of their schedule is outside of their own division, and those two divisional tours see them taking on the Cardinals, Titans, and Patriots, which isn’t too difficult.

It’s hard to say the Chargers have a tough schedule. The two games against KC and the tour through the AFC North is tough. But they’re not likely to go winless in that 6-pack of games, and their other 11 games don’t figure to be spots where they’d be more than a very small underdog at worst. While an overall team-assessment maybe doesn’t bode well, their schedule could cooperate if the Chargers find their bearings and get in gear.

In his last two gigs, we saw Harbaugh take the Niners from 6 wins to 13 wins in his first season while taking the Wolverines from 5 wins to 10 wins in his first season in Ann Arbor. Twice might be a small sample size, but the general metamorphosis that Harbaugh engineers don’t typically need tons of time to take hold. Whether he has the pieces on offense to thrive in this league remains to be seen.

Still, maybe Harbaugh can help engineer a different identity on offense. Without the same explosive potential on offense, maybe he can bridge the gap with less self-undermining and more overall competence, a stronger line, and a more consistent and impactful run-game. Perhaps he can get the offense to be more competent, take what they can, and help keep the defense off the field, allowing them to take a bigger hand in controlling the game. At times over the last handful of seasons, it seemed like both sides of the ball were independently-operating entities. I’d look for Harbaugh to create more harmony among the different aspects of the team.

Los Angeles Chargers Season Wins Over/Under Pick

A 10-7 season isn’t that hard to picture with Harbaugh now at the controls. However, I think I’d like slightly more than +120 for picking that. And not that laying -160 on the under is exactly ideal, but I think it’s fair to some extent, too. Not all the issues on defense are going to go away to make that a unit that’s going to carry the Chargers to glory. And the prospects of what they can get out of this offense are iffy, to say the least. It’s possible that they get that “D” in order, see the offense overachieve, and still not get to ten wins. I’m going under on the Chargers this season.

Betting Pick: I’m picking the Los Angeles Chargers to go under 9.5 season wins at -160 betting odds.