Lions vs. Bears Week 16: Lay the Points, Back the Lions?

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 12/22/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 22
Where: Soldier Field
TV: Fox

Point spread: Det -6.5/Chic +6.5
Money line: Det -300/Chic +250
Over/under: 47

 
The playoff-bound Lions and tee-time bound Bears get together for an NFC North bash Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.
 
Detroit just suffered its first defeat since September. Still, the Lions would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.
 
Meanwhile, Chicago hasn’t tasted victory since mid-October.
 

NFL Betting Odds

 
The NFL Week 16 betting market opened Detroit at -7.5 for Sunday, with an O/U of right around 48. Early betting action shaved that spread to -7.
 

Lions Betting Preview

 
Detroit is trying to bounce back this week after having an 11-game winning streak snapped last Sunday by Buffalo 48-42. The Lions fell down to the Bills 14-0 out of the gate, later trailed 35-14, and did not get back to within one score until only a few seconds remained in the game.
 
Detroit, with defenders falling like flies to injuries, gave up 559 yards of Buffalo offense and could not produce a single takeaway. Offensively the Lions racked up 521 yards but a huge chunk of that came after falling down by three scores.
 
Last week was the first time since Week 9 at Green Bay that Detroit got out-gained and/or out-rushed. And the Lions won that game anyway.
 
Two weeks ago, Detroit beat the Packers again 34-31. Three weeks ago, the Lions defeated this Chicago team by 23-20. So Detroit’s games are getting closer after they rolled through October and most of November.
 
At 12-2 overall, the Lions are now tied with Philadelphia and Minnesota for the best record in the NFC. But Detroit owns the tie-breakers on both those teams so it would be the top seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.

Bears Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Bears lug an eight-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at Minnesota Monday night 30-12. Chicago trailed 13-0 at the half, botched the hell out of a chance to get back in the game in the third quarter, and just generally looked inept. They also whiffed ATS at +7.
 
The Bears only got out-gained by the Vikings by a margin of 329-284 but converted just 1/12 on 3rd downs.
 
So Chicago has now been out-gained by seven of its last eight opponents.
 
Back in November the Bears lost consecutive games to Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit by a combined seven points. But their last two defeats came by 43 points.
 
At 4-10 overall, the Bears are once again playing out the string on a lost season.
 
On the injury front, the Lions are really banged-up on defense, while Chicago is hurting along the offensive line. So, the injury situation might be a wash.

By the Numbers

 
Detroit is averaging 404 YPG on offense this season, 144 rushing. Defensively the Lions are allowing 336 YPG, 101 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin (Sagarin.com) ranks as the 6th-toughest schedule in the League.
 
Chicago is averaging a League-low 288 YPG on offense, 106 on the ground, while allowing 351 YPG, 133 on the ground. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 12 schedule.
 

Lions-Bears Recent History

 
Detroit is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS over the last five meetings in this rivalry. The Lions won the first meeting between the teams this season back on Thanksgiving 23-20 but could not cover the spread at -10.
 
Detroit led that game 23-7 through three quarters, then allowed Chicago to get within a field goal with five minutes left. The Lions then watched as the Bears botched a chance to send the game into overtime by basically letting the last 30 seconds run off the clock.
 
That game played under a total of 47, even though the teams combined for over 700 yards of total yardage.
 

Common Opponents

 
These teams have played eight common opponents this season: members of the NFC North and AFC South, as well as the Rams and Cardinals. Detroit played those foes to 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS, and +15 PPG, Chicago to 3-6 SU, 4-3-2 ATS, and -2 PPG.
 

NFL Betting Trends

Detroit is out-rushing opponents this season by 43 YPG; Chicago is getting out-rushed by 27 YPG. Teams that win the ground battles this season are covering the spread 66 percent of the time.

Home dogs are just 33-52 ATS this season.

Totals Report

• The over is 7-6 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.
• The Under is 9-5 in Bears games, averaging 41 points.
• The Under is are 5-2 over the last seven meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

 
Detroit’s banged up on defense, but at least they can out-score most opponents. And you wouldn’t think they’d have much problem doing that against this Chicago offense. The Lions will win the ground battle in this game and probably the turnover battle and that’s usually enough right there to cover a spread. And besides, the Bears are just botching things left and right these days – last week, they had a touchdown canceled because an offensive lineman forgot to report as eligible! That comes down to coaching and focus, both of which Chicago lacks. Detroit’s injuries are playing a part in keeping the line on this game down where it is, but they should win this game and cover this spread.