Lions at Packers Betting Analysis & Free Pick | Nov. 3, 2024

Detroit Lions (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (6-2, 4-4)
When: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 3
Where: Lambeau Field
TV: Fox
NFL betting odds: Det -3.5/GB +3.5
Money line: Det -175/GB +145
Over/under: 48

Perhaps the best match-up of NFL Week 9 will take place on the not-so-frozen tundra at Lambeau Field when the 6-2 Packers host the 6-1 Lions for an NFC North rivalry bout. These teams have combined to win their last nine games but are just now beginning to play these all-important divisional matchups.

Both starting quarterbacks are nursing injuries this week; however, while Detroit’s Goff is almost certain to play, Green Bay’s Love is uncertain. Bettors may want to monitor later injury reports before wagering on this game.

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 9 betting market opened with Detroit at -4.5, with an O/U of 48. Early betting action, even with Green Bay’s QB situation, has moved the line to -3.5.

Lions Betting Preview

Detroit rides a five-game winning streak into this Sunday after dominating Tennessee 52-14 last Sunday. The game was tied 14-14 in the second quarter when the Lions scored 38 unanswered points to secure both the win and the cover at -13. While Detroit was out-gained by the Titans 416-225, they won the turnover battle 4-0, creating at least a +21 points differential. Additionally, the Lions scored on a 90-yard punt return in the third quarter, putting the game out of reach.

On the prop board, QB Goff, with little need to throw, recorded only 85 passing yards, falling well below his O/U of 235.5. However, his three touchdown passes paid off at +300. RB Gibbs ran for 127 yards, surpassing his rushing total of 64.5, with a 70-yard breakaway run.

Since starting the season 1-1, the Lions have won tough games and posted high scores, with notable victories over Arizona, Seattle, Dallas, and Minnesota. Detroit, now 6-1, would be the NFC’s No. 1 seed if the playoffs started today and needs just four wins over its last ten games to hit the season total over of 9.5.

Packers Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Green Bay brings a four-game winning streak of its own into Sunday after edging Jacksonville 30-27. The Packers led 27-17 midway through the fourth quarter before allowing Jacksonville to rally for a 27-27 tie. Green Bay then drove 64 yards to set up a game-winning field goal at the buzzer, though blowing that late lead cost them the cover at -3.5.

Even with QB Love missing half the game, the Packers produced 422 yards of total offense, though the defense allowed 390 yards as it loosened up late. On the prop board, Love threw for 196 yards, which was under his passing total of 261.5, while RB Jacobs ran for 127 yards and two touchdowns, paying off at +450.

Green Bay started 2-2 this season but has since outplayed their opponents in four straight wins, including over the Rams, Cardinals, Texans, and Jaguars. At 6-2, the Packers would be the NFC’s No. 5 seed if the playoffs began today, needing five more wins over their last nine games to hit the season total over of 10.5.

Injury Update

Green Bay’s Love (groin) is questionable for Sunday, with backup Malik Willis ready to make his third start if needed. Green Bay also lists RB Jacobs, three offensive line starters, and four defensive starters as questionable. For Detroit, Goff (ankle) is also questionable, though he is more likely to play than Love.

Lions-Packers Recent History

Detroit is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five matchups. Last season, each team won on the other’s field, with Detroit out-gaining and out-rushing Green Bay in both games. Both meetings last season also went over the total, averaging 53 points per game.

NFL Betting Trends

• Home teams are 59-60 SU and 52-66 ATS this season.
• Favorites are 83-40 SU, 65-57 ATS.
• Home dogs are 17-27 ATS this season.

Totals Report

• Overs are 4-3 in Lions games, averaging 53 total points.
• Overs are 4-3 in Packers games, averaging 48 points.
• Overs are 65-57 in the NFL this season.

Touchdown Props

Detroit WR Isaiah Williams, likely to see reps with Jameson Williams suspended, is at +1400 to score a touchdown. The “first score” TD/FG ratio this season stands at 72/50.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Detroit is arguably the best team in the NFC, if not the league, and should win outright. The Lions posted 52 points last week without pressing. Meanwhile, Green Bay might be wise to rest Love this week, with Willis doing well in backup stints and a bye coming up. Plus, the Packers may struggle against Detroit even with Love playing. Detroit has won its last two games at Lambeau, and we expect the Lions to make it three straight on Sunday.