Lions at Chiefs Week 1 Point Spread Pick

Detroit Lions (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, September 7, 2023 at 8:20PM EDT
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: NBC

Point Spread: DET +6.5/KC -6.5 (Bovada)
Over/Under Total: 53.5

The Detroit Lions meet the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, as the NFL regular season kicks off with this Thursday Night Football showdown. The Chiefs will be hoisting another championship banner, on the heels of another Super Bowl title. But they also have their hands full with an NFC team entering the season with high hopes following a year where there was some real promise. Kansas City is at home, largely intact from last season, but will be facing a hungry team eager to announce that ’23 might be their season. Who can get it done for us in the season-opener at Arrowhead?

Built-In Urgency Edge for the Lions?

For two teams both considered to be good, you couldn’t find more opposite positions. The Chiefs are in the midst of their most-successful period—two Super Bowl titles and three trips to the big game in the last four seasons. Contrast that to a Lions team that has never gone to the big game in the entire Super Bowl era. The Lions got a taste of some real success last season and for the first time in an eternity, enter a season with some real hope. And this stand-alone Thursday Night Football game against the defending Super Bowl champions is a great way to announce the optimism on them is well-founded. Yes, it’s one game. And even if the Lions fall on their face, it doesn’t mean they aren’t up-to-snuff, as a lot of good teams have recently looked so-so at Arrowhead against this Chiefs team. Let’s also point out that the proverbial Super Bowl Hangover quotient hasn’t really ever taken a hold of KC yet that we’ve really seen. Still, there’s something to be said for one team having already achieved all their success taking on a team looking for its first real taste of it. We just might see a Lions team breaking a little quicker out of the gate is all.

Harsh Football Realities for the Lions

They stumbled upon a nice formula last season, but are taking on a team that has survived a lot. We see star players leaving and the Chiefs nary missing a beat. Even with an offensive cast last season largely comprised of bit players, that side of the ball didn’t really take a step back last year. It almost gives the image of a foolproof recipe for success. On the other sideline is a team that has never seen through the progression of a promising team into a real sustained contender. And it’s not like last season’s Detroit formula for success is imperturbable. First of all, QB Jared Goff has clearly shown his fortunes can vary from season to season. Add in a running-game that was responsible for a lot of production being overhauled and the aerial corps being disrupted, the Lions graduating to the next level is no slam-dunk.

Offensive Hopefulness for Detroit in This Spot

There are things to like with Detroit, who does have some continuity with a stable QB and intact coaching staff. The Chiefs’ defense can’t be criticized when they’re making it to three of four Super Bowls and winning two. But we all know it lags well behind the KC offense and herein lies Detroit’s best hopes. It’s championship banner night and you’d have to expect some decent energy from the Chiefs, which means points. If the Lions want to get a sniff of this spread or maybe even a win, they’re going to need to see a new-look run-game hit the ground running. It’s just not clear and perhaps unlikely that the inconsistent David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs can replicate last season’s results. You’d also like to see a TE like TJ Hockenson in there now, but he’s gone. Jameson Williams is out until week 7. They get Marvin Jones back in the fold, but outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown and maybe Montgomery, there aren’t a ton of proven difference-makers around Goff going into week one to really test the biggest weakness of the Chiefs.

Goff really turned things around last season. And that offensive line is the envy of almost every other team, a real gem of a front for Goff and the rest of this offense to lean on. You just wonder that between the potential downgrades in their running game and receiver package, in addition to a draft class where they seemed to reach in a few cases if they have the personnel that matches all this optimism we’re seeing. Not that this will necessarily be a track meet, but they’re going to need to come up with a lot of offense in this spot.

Kansas City’s Offensive Prospects Against Detroit

It’s hard to say anything about Kansas City’s offense on the heels of winning a ring. You could say there aren’t any real stars outside of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and the veteran tight end will soon be 34. That Detroit defensive front is pretty good, led by Aidan Hutchinson, who appears to have the potential to be a DPOY candidate moving forward. They added some dependable veteran talent to their secondary with CJ Gardner-Johnson coming aboard, among others. The secondary might end up being the most-improved part of the team, but suffice to say it wasn’t hard for some teams to take it to Detroit last season and a home Chiefs’ squad shouldn’t be encountering too much resistance this week in relation to what they’re going to be seeing the rest of the season.

Lay the Points

Even if you think Detroit will be the goods this season, taking on the Super Bowl champs in a stadium a lot of these players have never seen might not produce the best representation of the Lions. I see the Chiefs getting some energy from a pulsating home-crowd, with any potential Bowl hangover settling in later if it ever comes at all. While the Chiefs lack some of their prior star-power, their depth and versatility are enough to throw a still-dicey Detroit defense for a loop. And with KC able to lock onto the few individual threats Detroit wields offensively, with Chris Jones and others doing their thing, I see them keeping Detroit from having one of their explosive type nights offensively. I’ll take the Chiefs in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 6.5 points.

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