NFL Line Move Plays
Predictem doesn’t offer a line movement tracker, but this page is as good as anything you’ll find. First, because it’s free. Second, because we reverse engineer the line move, pinpoint what caused it, and provide analysis which helps us as football bettors determine if it’s worth betting. Lastly, these are the bets wiseguys, sharps and astute handicappers are making. We’ll update this page multiple times per week with final updates late Saturday night. We highly recommend bookmarking us, as this should be one of the more profitable NFL picks pages you’ll find on the web!
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Rich Crew’s Line Move Plays
Pro capper Rich Crew is taking charge for the rest of the season. He’ll break down a play or two, explaining why the line moved—or if it didn’t, he’ll tell you why that could signal a smart play and where to put your money.
Week 15
Panthers -3
This line opened with Carolina as a slight -1.5 favorite but has climbed to the key number of -3, despite the Panthers receiving as low as 30% of the action, according to some consensus sites. The move signals sharp action backing Carolina, driven by key injuries on the Cowboys’ defense. Dallas’ leading tackler, MLB Eric Kendricks, seems unlikely to play, and starting CB Trevon Diggs has already been ruled out—significant blows to an already struggling unit.
Carolina has been quietly profitable at home, going 4-3 ATS and covering four straight at home after a slow 0-3 SU and ATS start. The Panthers have also been reliable overall, covering five straight games, including a narrow road loss to Philadelphia last week. While they’re just 2-3 SU in their past five games, all three losses were by six points or fewer, including close home losses to Tampa Bay and Kansas City by three points each. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ run defense has been abysmal, allowing a 31st-ranked 141.9 yards per game and a 29th-ranked 4.8 yards per carry. Carolina should be able to run on the Cowboys, and QB Bryce Young’s improved play should get them the W and spread win .
With sharp bettors driving this line movement and Carolina proving their value against the spread, I’ll back the Panthers to cover the -3 in this spot.
Week 14
Raiders +7 (-120)
The line for this matchup has seen movement, dropping from Bucs -7.5 to as low as -6.5 at some books, signaling sharp bettors finding value on the Raiders. While public sentiment (58% of spread bets) leans toward Tampa Bay at home, the smart play here is grabbing Las Vegas at +7 (-120) while it’s still available.
The Raiders have shown legitimate defensive improvement, particularly against the run, which forces the Bucs into a one-dimensional passing attack—something that plays right into the strength of Las Vegas’ defensive scheme. Tampa Bay has struggled to establish any consistent ground game, and their passing attack led by Baker Mayfield will face resistance against a Raiders secondary capable of keeping them in check. Meanwhile, Aidan O’Connell continues to gain confidence under center, with emerging tight end Brock Bowers and steady contributions from Jakobi Myers giving the Raiders the weapons to exploit Tampa Bay’s vulnerable pass defense.
Adding to the value is Tampa Bay’s shaky record against the spread at home, where they’ve struggled to cover as favorites. The combination of an improving Raiders defense and a capable passing attack positions Las Vegas to keep this game competitive. With the line ticking down and sharp money backing the Raiders, we’re grabbing the +7 at -120 for what looks like an excellent value play.
Week 13
Bills -6.5 (35-10)
This matchup has seen the biggest line movement of the NFL betting week, as the Bills shifted from three-point favorites to -6.5, with some books even showing -7. The movement stems from a combination of factors. The 49ers are coming off a crushing 38-10 loss to the Packers, a game in which injuries to key players derailed their efforts. Brock Purdy was scratched late with a shoulder injury, Trent Williams and Nick Bosa were both sidelined, and linebacker Renardo Green suffered a neck injury. These absences have decimated the defending NFC champs, who now sit at 5-6 with fading playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a bye and could get back critical players like WR Keon Coleman and LB Matt Milano, further bolstering their already dominant squad.
We’re backing the Bills to cover -6.5 in this spot. Buffalo has won six straight games, scoring 30 or more points in five consecutive contests, and has consistently outplayed their odds with a 7-4 ATS mark. Note that six of their nine victories came by margins of 7 or more points. This is a team firing on all cylinders offensively, and their defense will face a banged-up 49ers squad struggling to find consistency. With Buffalo rested, healthy, and playing at home in prime time, this line movement is justified, and the Bills are the clear play to extend their dominance with another decisive win.
Week 12
Vikings vs. Bears Under 39.5 (Lost 30-27)
The total for the Vikings-Bears matchup opened at 40.5 and has steadily dropped to 39.5, with some books even showing 39. While public bettors are leaning on the Over—typical for lower totals—the line movement signals sharp action on the Under. The stats and trends back up the sharps’ play here.
Minnesota’s offensive production has sharply declined. After averaging 29 points per game in their first four contests, they’ve hit a ceiling of 23 points in their last four. A significant factor has been the diminished impact of running back Aaron Jones, who was a dynamic dual-threat early in the season but has been hampered by injuries. Meanwhile, the Bears have been equally inept offensively, managing just 11.5 points per game over their past four. Both teams, however, have leaned on their defenses. The Vikings have held opponents to 17 or fewer points in seven of ten games, and Chicago has allowed more than 21 points just once all season. With both teams struggling to score and playing strong defense, this game profiles as a defensive grind, making the Under 39.5 the sharp side.
Week 11
Raiders/Dolphins Under 44 (Loss 34-19)
The total for the Raiders-Dolphins Week 11 clash opened at 45.5 but has nosedived to 43.5 at some books, even as 70% of public bets are hammering the Over. The sharps, however, are taking a hard stance on the Under, and the numbers explain why this is the smarter play.
The Raiders’ offense struggles to generate yards, ranking 29th in the league with just 280.2 yards per game. Even with a bye week and new offensive leadership, a significant turnaround seems improbable. Meanwhile, the Dolphins face a different issue—efficiency. Despite their explosive playmakers, they rank 31st (corrected) in yards per point at a staggering 19.3, highlighting an inability to turn yards into meaningful scoring. Combine this with a Las Vegas defense ranked 10th in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.3) and strong against the run, holding six of their last seven opponents to 4.2 yards per carry or less, and this game projects as a defensive battle. The Under is the sharp play here, with both offenses struggling to meet expectations.
Week 10
49ers -6.5 ( Loss 23-20 but didn’t cover)
The line has bumped up from -5 with personnel news driving the movement. Star RB Christian McCaffrey is back for the 49ers, making his season debut, and he’s joined by WRs Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings, both expected to play. Rookie Ricky Pearsall showed flashes last week, adding depth with 38 receiving yards and a 39-yard run, which could keep the Bucs’ defense on its heels. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is missing critical pieces in the passing game, relying heavily on TE Cade Otton to pick up the slack. Without their key receivers, keeping up with San Francisco’s balanced and deep attack looks unlikely.
— With San Francisco’s offense back to full strength and Tampa facing limited options, the 49ers are positioned to cover the spread. Notes: The 49ers had nearly double the yards but struggled to get it in the end zone, and their kicker had a bad day going 3 for 6.
Week 9
There hasn’t been a lot of movement in the lines at this time (Saturday, 8 PM ET). If there is a big move tomorrow, we’ll tackle it then, but the way it stands, there are no moves large enough to discuss.
Week 8
Dolphins -4.5 (Lost outright 28-27)
I’m going back to the Dolphins. The line movement on Thursday for Miami, pushing it to -4 or -4.5, is a direct response to confirmation that Tua Tagovailoa would be starting. With Tua back, Miami’s offense gets a substantial boost, prompting sharp bettors to seize value before the line adjusted. Tua’s return elevates Miami’s passing game, especially with his chemistry with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, which gives the Dolphins a decided edge that savvy bettors recognize.
Several factors contribute to Miami’s appeal beyond just Tua’s return. Arizona’s defense is depleted, missing key contributors like Dennis Gardeck, Roy Lopez, and Sean Murphy-Bunting, which hinders their pass rush and weakens both their line and secondary. Additionally, the Cardinals are on a short week after a Monday night game, giving Miami’s high-tempo offense a prime chance to exploit fatigue and injuries. While public money has shown up on Arizona, sharp bettors favor Miami, seeing a motivated Dolphins team ready to rebound from recent losses and capitalize on a compromised Cardinals lineup. Notes: The Dolphins led 20-10 mid-third quarter but the Cards had everything go their own way with seeing eye passes etc.
Week 7
Dolphins +3 (Lost 10-16)
The Colts opened as high as -4.5, but we’re now seeing that line sitting at -3 across most sportsbooks, and it’s clear why. Despite the public favoring Indy with up to 63% of the action, sharp money is pulling this line down on the news that Anthony Richardson will start over Joe Flacco. Flacco has been steady, completing 65.7% of his passes with a solid 7-to-1 TD-INT ratio, whereas Richardson has struggled with accuracy (50.6%) and has thrown 6 interceptions to only 3 TDs. Sharps are spotting the downgrade at QB and are taking advantage of this shift.
Astute bettors are also eyeing Miami, fresh off a bye week, with Tyler Huntley getting more comfortable in the offense. Huntley is facing the weakest defense he’s seen during his starts with the Dolphins, giving him a prime opportunity to succeed. Combine that with the rest advantage and the Colts’ QB downgrade, and it’s easy to see why the sharp money is on Miami, moving this line agianst the public sentiment. If you’re thinking like a sharp, this is a spot where Miami +3 is the play.
Note: The Fish were leading before losing their starting QB. They turned the ball over on a fumble in the red zone, missed a chip shot field goal and drove into field goal range late in the game before turning it over on downs when the third string QB forgot which down it was and threw it away.
Week 6
Chargers -3 (Won 23-16)
The line moving from -2.5 to -3 tells me everything I need to know: sharp money is driving this market, and we’re on the right side with the Chargers at -3. While the public is jumping on the Broncos as a home underdog at 67%, books aren’t budging. They’re holding the line firm at -3 for good reason—too much sharp action on the Chargers. The number 3 is key in NFL betting, and when books hold a line there, it’s because they expect a close game with a solid chance the Chargers win by that exact margin. Dropping back to -2.5 would be a disaster for them, exposing themselves to sharp bettors who already saw the value at -2.5 and would pounce again.
I’m betting the Chargers at -3 because the sharps know that injuries on Denver’s offensive line and receiver corps will limit their offense. Herbert is fully healthy, and despite questions about a couple of Chargers’ key players, the smart money is showing faith in Los Angeles’ ability to cover this number. The fact that books won’t back off -3, even with public money on the Broncos, speaks volumes—sharp bettors and I are confident the Chargers will get it done. Notes: The game wasn’t as close as the final score suggests with LAC leading 23-0 heading into the 4th. Something to keep youre eye on this week is the Chargers injury report as a handful of players got banged-up in the game.
2024-25 YTD: 1-10-0 -10.0 Units
Week 5 Line Move Play (10/3 through 10/7)
The Carolina Panthers opened as +5.5 underdogs and the line has been bet down to +4 despite only 38% backing the Panthers. (Lost 10-36)
The Jacksonville Jaguars opened as -2.5 home favs and have been bet up to -3 and even -3.5 at some books despite only half of the public betting on them. Indy’s defense has numerous injuries to key players. (Won but didn’t cover 37-34)
Week 4 Line Move Picks (9/26 through 9/30) One of the higher percentage picks we make has started out ice cold this season! Don’t give up on it yet!
The Chicago Bears opened as short -1.5 favorites against the Los Angeles Rams. The line has moved up to Bears -3 despite only 35% of bettors backing Da Bears. Many are going to get bit by recency bias tomorrow! The Bears aren’t as bad as they’ve looked and the Rams aren’t as good as they looked at SF! (Won)
The Cleveland Browns opened as -1.5 road favs at Las Vegas. The Raiders are expected to be without numerous key players including Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby. The Browns DL holds the biggest mismatch of Week 4 against the Raiders OL. We’re predicting an easy Browns win. (Lost)
Week 3 Line Move Plays (9/19 through 9/23) The Tennessee Titans opened as -2.5 home favs to the Packers. The line has gone up to -3 despite only 42% betting the Titans. The line move is primarily because Jordan Love was announced as out. The Packers will likely run the ball a bunch, which plays right into the Titans hands as run defense is their strength. (Lost 16-30)
The Miami Dolphins opened as +6.5 road underdogs at Seattle and the line has dropped to +4.5 despite only 36% betting the Phins. Seattle is banged up and has only played a bad Denver/New England teams. Miami lost Tua, but can still compete. Getting +4.5 includes two key numbers. Nice value! (Lost 3-24)
The Atlanta Falcons opened as +4.5 home favs and the line has dropped to +3 despite only 37% betting the Dirty Birds. This is a tough spot for KC, who hasn’t fared well vs. Raheem Morris defense. (Lost 17-22)
Week 2 Line Movement Bets (9/12 through 9/16) Detroit Lions -7.5. The Buccaneers suffered numerous losses in their secondary in Week 1. They’ll be without one of their safeties and their second, third and fourth cornerbacks. This spells big trouble for the Bucs! The line has moved up from Det. -6.5 to -7.5 despite only 38% of bettors backing the Lions. (Lost 16-20)
The Miami Dolphins opened as -1 favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills. The line has since moved up to Mia -2.5, despite the game receiving action. There are very few trends/angles that I follow, but a favorite line moving up while an underdog is receiving half of the action (or better) is one that has paid off handsomely over the long term. I’m betting the Phins -2.5. (Lost 10-31)
Week 1 Line Move Plays (9/5 through 9/9) The Las Vegas Raiders opened as +3.5 underdogs at Los Angeles. The line has since moved to +3 and is threating to break out into the 2’s. LV is a much better team than the Bolts at this point in the season. The Chargers have a ton of injuries to key players, including their QB, who is battling plantar fasciitis. It should also be noted that the line dropped despite only 36% backing the Raiders, who will be starting Gardner Minshew, a BAD quarterback. Expect Vegas to run the ball a ton and control his risk. Bet LV plus the points. (Lost 10-22)
The Cleveland Browns opened up as +1.5 home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys. The line has moved a full four points to Cleveland -2.5, despite only 43% backing the Clev. The Cowboys are really banged up. Meanwhile, the Browns are solid on both sides of the ball. Lay the number with the Browns. (Got smoked)
2023-24 YTD: 16-14-1 +0.60 Units
Conference Championships (1/28) The Baltimore Ravens opened as -3.5 home favorities against the Kansas City Chiefs. The line has risen to -4.5, despite both teams receving equal action at the windows. The Chiefs will be missing stud offensive lineman Joe Thuney, which is a nightmare for the KC OL. Baltimore is stout on both sides of the all and should be able to run against KC. While not probable, it’s very possible that KC gets blown out on Sunday.
Divisional Playoffs Weekend (1/20 through 1/21) The Baltimore Ravens opened as -8.5 home favorites against the Houston Texans. The line has raised to -9.5 and pushing -10 at some sportsbooks, despite only 37% of bettors backing Baltimore. These teams don’t matchup well at all. Baltimore’s defense is no joke. As good as C.J. Stroud is, he’s young and forces the ball into tight coverage. That won’t work in Baltimore on Saturday. I’m forecasting the Ravens to blowout Houston. (Won 34-10)
Wild Card Weekend Plays (1/13 through 1/15) Passing
Week 18 Line Move Predictions (1/6 through 1/7) The SF 49ers opened as -3 home favorites against the Rams. The line moved up to -4 despite only 50% of the public betting on the Niners. Yes, the 49ers will be resting multiple key starters, but their backups aren’t bad at all. Not to mention, Carson Wentz will be starting for the Rams, who is an absolute disaster. (Lost 20-21)
Week 17 Line Move Plays (12/28 through 12/31) The Philadelphia Eagles opened as -9.5 home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. The line has moved up to as high as -12 at time of print, despite only half of bettors backing Philly. Arizona has nothing to play for, Philly does. More importantly, the Eagles offensive line is healthy and should absolutely truck the Cards defense. (Lost)
Week 16: Passed
Week 15 Line Move Bet Recommendations (12/14 through 12/18)
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as +10.5 road underdogs at New England. The line has since dropped to +8.5 despite only 36% of NFL bettors backing the Pats. KC is in disarray. We’re betting the Pats to stay within the number.
Week 14 Line Move Plays: (12/7 through 12/11)
The Chicago Bears opened as +4.5 home underdogs to the Lions. The line has dropped a point and a half down to +3, despite only 33% of the public betting Da Bears. Detroit struggles to contain rushing quarterbacks. They’ve also looked suspect lately. On the offensive side of the ball, the Lions will be missing center Frank Ragnow. I LOVE fading teams when their center is out. It’s one of the most important positions on the field. The Bears have gotten healthy and are playing at a high level (Can’t believe I’m saying that!) I’m expecting a low scoring grinder of a game with the Bears winning straight up. (Won straight up 28-13)
The Cleveland Browns opened as +3.5 home underdogs to the Jaguars. The Jags have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. The line has moved six points to Cleveland -2.5. I like the Browns to win in a game that will probably give you diarrhea if you watch it! (31-27 winner)
Week 13 Line Movement Predictions (11/30 through 12/4)
The Carolina Panthers opened as +5.5 road underdogs at Tampa Bay. The line has since been bet down to +3.5 despite only 27% backing the Panthers. (Covered the spread 18-21)
Week 12 Line Move Picks: (11/23 through 11/27)
The Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Indianapolis Colts over/under opened at 42.5 and has moved all the way up to 45.5 despite half of bettors siding with the under. Both sets of receivers matchup really well with the opposing corners, which are below average. I’m think there’s still value in betting the OVER 45.5, despite the line already moving three points. (Won with 47 points)
The Cleveland Browns opened as +2.5 underdogs at Denver. The line dropped to +1.5 despite only 40% backing Cleveland. The Browns should win this game easily. Denver’s offensive line won’t be able to holdup against a nasty Cleveland D-line. If you watch Broncos games, it’s really obvious that Russell Wilson isn’t willing to get hit anymore. He folds like a cheap tent when pressured. On the other side of the ball, the Browns should be able to run all over a really bad Broncos run defense. The Broncos really struggled to defend a running QB in Josh Dobbs last week. DTR plays a similar style of football, albeit not as good as Dobbs. I think this is a really horrible matchup for Denver and that Cleveland should be favored. (Got clocked 12-29. One of the grossest games I’ve watching in a LONG time)
Week 11 NFL Line Move and Wiseguy Plays (11/16 through 11/20) The Los Angeles Rams opened up as +1.5 home underdogs to the Seahawks and the line has moved four points to LAR -2.5, despite only 43% backing Sean McVay’s club. The Rams would have gone 4-1-1 ATS with a -2.5 point spread over their last six meetings with Seattle in Los Angeles. I’m betting the Rams minus the points. (Rams won the game, but didn’t cover)
The Chicago Bears opened as +8.5 road dogs at Detroit. The line has since been bet down to +8 (7.5 at a few sportsbooks) despite only 43% backing the Bears. Detroit hasn’t figure out how to contain Justin Fields. Between that, their healthy and it being a division games, two scores is simply too many. I’m taking the points with Da Bears! (Won 26-31)
Week 10 Line Move Picks (11/9 through 11/13) It’s rare that I bet a line move while siding with the public, but that’s exactly what I’m doing Sunday with the Pittsburgh Steelers who opened as -2.5 home favorites. The line has since moved to -3 and even as high as -4 at some sportsbooks. The Packers can’t stop the run and I envision Najee Harris ramming it up the middle, right where GB is weak. To further strengthen this play, LB Quay Walker is doubtful. I like the Steelers to win convincingly, but will be betting the moneyline at -180 against a Packers team who just can’t seem to put it together. (Won 23-19)
Week 9 NFL Line Move Plays (11/2 through 11/6) The Green Bay Packers opened as +1.5 home underdogs to the L.A. Rams. The line has moved 5 points and the Pack are now -3.5 favorites despite only 39% of the public betting them. (Won 20-3)
The New York Giants opened as +3 road dogs at Las Vegas. The line has dropped to NYG +1 despite only 37% betting the Gmen. The Raiders have cleaned house, firing some of their coaching staff. There is concern that the team is now in tank mode. Even without that, the Giants are getting healthier and playing way more competitively lately. (Got smoked 6-30)
Week 8 Line Move Plays (10/26 through 10/30) The Dallas Cowboys opened as -6 home favorites against the Los Angeles Rams and moved to -6.5, despite only half of the public betting the Pokes. Dallas’s offensive line is healthy. Their defense is going to eat the Rams crappy OL alive. (Won in blowout fashion by a score of 43-20)
The Atlanta Falcons opened as -1.5 road favs at Tennessee. The line has moved up to -2.5 despite only 37% of the public betting on the Falcons. The Titans are going to start QB Levis and sprinkle in some Malik Willis. Levis has zero career snaps and Willis is bad. (Levis balled out and we lost 28-23. Unfortunately, Ridder left with the game with a concussion as well.)
Week 7 Wiseguy Plays: (10/19 through 10/23) The Baltimore Ravens opened as -2.5 home favorites against the Detroit Lions. The line has since moved up to -3, despite only 36% of bettors backing Baltimore. The Lions are in a bad spot with the loss of David Montgomery, which leaves them with an ineffective run game, as Gibbs isn’t built to do so. Fading Goff outdoors and on the road is also one of my favorite angles. Detroit is an up and coming team, but they’re in a bad spot today. (Balt CRUSHED 38-6)
The New Orleans Saints opened as +1.5 home underdogs to the Jaguars. The line has since moved to N.O. -2.5, despite more people betting on Jacksonville. The Saints defense is really balling out right now. Lawrence is banged up (almost didn’t play) and the Jags don’t cover pass catching RB’s well, which is what Kamara specializes in. Jags CB Tyson Campbell is expected to miss, enhancing Chris Olave’s matchup. I like the Saints to win a low scoring game. (Lost 24-31)
Week 6 Line Movement Predictions (10/12 through 10/16) The Minnesota Vikings opened as -3.5 road favorites and the line has been bet down to Bears +3, despite only 41% of the public betting on Chicago. The Vikings are in turmoil after losing Justin Jefferson to injury. There’s talk of Cousins being traded and the team tanking for a high draft pick. This can’t be good for team morale. The Bears are actually playing better football too. I’m betting the Bears at +3. (Lost 13-19. The Bears had multiple shots to win the game but with Fields hurt, it took Bagent too long to get settled in and then he got picked at the end of the game.)
Week 5 NFL Line Move Bets (10/8 through 10/9)
The Las Vegas Raiders opened as +1.5 home underdogs (A line I was ok betting!) and has moved to LV -2, despite only 41% wagering on the Raiders. The Packers are beat up. They’ve allowed 189 yards or more in three of their first four games. Jacobs looks like he’s back on track and should smash tonight! The Packers get a couple offensive linemen back, but are still missing the heart of their line in David Bakhtiari. This game would be a great/even matchup in a few weeks. Not tonight though! Advantage Raidas! (Winner 17-13)
The New Orleans Saints opened as +2.5 underdogs at New England. The line has dropped to N.O. +1.5 despite only 37% of bettors backing them. The Pats are in disarray right now. Their offense is ineffecient and their defense is missing numerous players, including their best three. I’m betting the Saints at +1.5 (34-0 Win).
Week 4 NFL Line Move Plays (9/28 through 10/2) The Cleveland Browns opened as +1.5 home underdogs. The line has since moved to Clev. -2.5, despite only 53% betting the Browns. Baltimore is not a good team. The loss of Chubb is being overstated. The Browns offensive line are road graders and this is a plug and play situation. YOU could probably run behind that line! The Browns are incredible on defense too. I’m betting the Browns -2.5. (Got destroyed 3-28)
The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as -4.5 road favorites at Houston. The line has been bet down to +3 despite only 37% backing the Texans. Houston is playing decent football, despite their offensive line being a patch-work situation. If your book has player props, I highly recommend betting Nico Collins to go OVER 50.5 yards. He’s got a sweet matchup against Levi Wallace which he should dominate. I’m betting the Texans at +3. (Crushed 30-3)
The Lions and Packers get together at Lambeau for Thursday night football where both offensive lines are missing key pieces. This will likely create timing issues, which can lead to more false starts. We’re also getting worse blockers, so both teams should struggle more than usual to run the ball. The over/under opened at 46 and has been bet down to as low as 44.5 at some books. (You can still find 45). The public is betting the over, yet the line is dropping. This tells us other astute/big money bettors are hitting the under as well. Lions QB Jared Goff’s home/road splits are unbelievably different. This guy never seems to play well on the road. Lastly, both teams are on a short week. I like this game to land in the mid-30’s (or lower). (Lost – 54 points scored)
Week 3 Line Move Bets (9/21 through 9/25) The Atlanta Falcons opened as +5.5 underdogs at Detroit. The line has been bet all the way down to +3. Detroit is banged up on their offensive line, defense, and offense. Atlanta plays an efficient brand of football and their arrow is pointing up. I’m betting the Dirty Birds at +3. (Lost 6-20)
The Washington Commanders opened as +6 home underdogs. The weather is supposed to be miserable Sunday. If this game comes down to running and defense, Washington has the edge. Buffalo’s weakness is runs up the middle. That’s exactly what Brian Robinson Jr. does and he’s good at it. The Commanders will bring pressure at Josh Allen, who becomes mistake prone. Washington can get away with becoming one-dimensional in bad weather. The Bills can’t. (Got smoked 3-37)
The Saints opened as +2.5 underdogs at Green Bay in Week 3. The line has been bet down to +1 despite only 41% predicting the Falcons will cover. The Packers are banged up on their offensive line, secondary and Aaron Jones and Watson are trying to come back off of injury. They may be rusty and more importantly, the timing will be off. This is just a bad spot for the Pack with not just injuries, but injuries to key players. (Crap luck as Carr went down and the Saints blew a fat lead. Pushed 16-17)
Week 2 MNF (Added 9/18/23 at 2:22PM ET) The Cleveland Browns opened as -1.5 road dogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The line has gone up to -2.5, desite half of bettors wagering on the home underdog Steelers. What’s to like about Pittsburgh? They just got absolutely crushed by the 49ers, who are very similar to the Clevland Browns. Cam Heyward is out for Pittsburgh. The Niners gashed the Steelers run defense after the injury. Chubb runs right up the middle on most carries. This is a huge concern and likely big issue for the Steelers. Their secondary got roasted too. Levi Wallace is a low rated CB and Patrick Peterson is 33-years old. On offense, the Steelers looked horrible last week. I expect them to struggle with the fat pressure that Clevleand can put on an offensive line. Harris looks slow, Diontae Johnson will miss and they continue to misuse one of the most athletic receivers in the game in George Pickens. This game could be a replica/repeat of what happened in Week 1 vs. San Francisco. Give me the Browns at -2.5 and I may even consider betting some props all the way up to -9.5 as it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see Clev win by double-digits!
Week 2: (9/14 through 9/18) The Los Angeles Chargers opened as -3 road favorites at Tennessee. A rare occurence has happened in not only is the world betting the Bolts and the line moved, but it came off the “3”. That should tell you all you need to know right there. L.A. isn’t going to be able to stop Derrick Henry. They won’t be able to run on the Titan’s stout run defense either. As you may have heard, Austin Ekeler has been ruled OUT for the game and Kelley will step in. I expect him to struggle mightily. LAC will have to air it out and they’ll likely have some success in doing so, but Mike Vrabel has a way of turning these kind of games into a slosh that ends up in his favor. I’m betting the Titans at +2.5 (Won 27-24)
The Atlanta Falcons opened up as -1 home favorites vs. the public darling Green Bay Packers. Green Bay had a nice game last week, but it was against the Bears, who possess one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The line has moved up to -1.5, despite only 40% of the public betting the Dirty Birds. Truth-be-told, Atlanta has a better offensive line, defense line, run game (and everything else) than Green Bay. The Packers won’t be able to stop Bijan Robinson and Co. and aren’t likely to turn the ball over either, as Arthur Smith is managing Ridder with kid gloves. (Very few passing attempts and very short ADOT). I’m betting the Falcons heavily at -1.5. (Lost 25-24 on a Koo missed extra point! Woes me!)
Week 1: (9/7 through 9/11) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +2.5 home underdogs against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals. The line has dropped to as low as +1 at some books, with most carrying it at +2. Meanwhile, the public is only backing the Browns to the tune of 41%. Joe Burrow has had calf issues in the preseason and the Browns have won five straight home games vs. Cinci. We’re betting the Browns today at +2. (Won 24-3).
The Denver Broncos opened up as -2 home favs vs. the Denver Broncos. The line has gone up to Denver -3, despite only 40% betting on the Broncos. Many bettors still have recency bias on the brain. Hackett is gone! There’s a whole new system in place with Sean Payton running the show. We’re saying the -3 with the Broncos! (Lost 16-17)
Added 9/11 at 2PM ET – New York Jets +2. The Jets opened as +3 home underdogs to Buffalo. The line has dropped to +2 despite 60% betting the Bills. (Won 22-16)
There we a few more Week 1 line moves, but we prefer to tread lightly, because nobody truly knows how things will playout until we have two to three weeks of data and the eye test under our belts.
2022 Record: 15-8-1 +6.20 Units
Super Bowl (2/12) The line has held steady so our Eagles pick doesn’t qualify.
Championship Weekend (1/29) No games qualify.
Divisional Playoffs (1/21 through 1/22) The Philadelphia Eagles opened as -7 home favorites against the New York Giants. The line has moved to Philly -7.5 despite only 33% of bettors backing the Eagles. Yes, the Giants looked pretty good last week. But it was against the Vikings crap defense! The Eagles are going to be able to do whatever they want on offense and Daniel Jones isn’t going to be able to throw to anybody but his tight ends against a tough Eagles defense. We’re betting Philadelphia at -7.5. (Won 38-7)
The Buffalo Bills opened as -4 favorites against the Bengals. The line has since bumped up to Bills -5.5 despite only 34% betting on Buffalo. Cinci grinded out a nice win vs. a tough Ravens defense, but lost another offensive lineman in the process, which now leaves them with only two healthy starters on the offensive line. Joe Burrow was able to pull this off last season and get to the Super Bowl with a similar scenario. but will not be able to get away with it against this Buffalo Bills team. We’re betting heavily on Josh Allen and the Bills at -5.5. (Lost straight up)
Wildcard Weekend: 1/14 through 1/16) The Buffalo Bills opened up as -10.5 favorites. The line has since bumped up to -13.5. Third string QB Skylar Thompson is starting for Miami, they have offensive line issues, Mostert is out, Waddle is banged up and their top offensive lineman is playing with 4 separate injuries. We believe this will be a lopsided blowout with a final score of something like 30-6. (Lost 34-31)
Week 18: (1/7 through 1/8) The Denver Broncos opened as +3 underdogs to the LA Chargers. The line has since moved 6 points to Denver -3 due to the probality Chargers starts will sit if the Bengals beat the Ravens which they’re projected to do. (Won straight up 31-28)
Week 17: (12/29 through 1/2) The New York Jets opened as +1.5 underdogs but are now -1.5 to -2 favorites despite only 39% of the general public betting them. The team performs completely different under Mike White. (Lost 6-23)
Week 16: (12/22 through 12/26) The Kansas City Chiefs opened as -9.5 favortes and bumped up to -10 despite only 40% of bettors backing them. This is a horrible matchup for the Seattle Seahawks. We project a BIG win for KC! (Won 24-14)
Week 15: (12/15 through 12/19) The Raiders opened as a small +1 to +2 home dog at many books but have climbed to -2 on game day. The keys to the move are based on the injuries with the Pats top two RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, and top receiver Jakobi Meyers all iffy to play. The news is all good for the Raiders, who are expected to have back WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller. Play the Raiders. (Won 30-24)
Week 14: (12/8 through 12/13) The Detroit Lions opened as +2.5 home underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings. The line has since moved to Detroit -2 despite Minnesota taking more money at the betting windows. Detroit should be able to exploit Minnesota’s weak seconday and their defense is playing much better as well. (Won 34-23)
The Philadelphia Eagles opened as -5.5 road favorites at New York. The Giants are down multiple receivers, their run stuffer on defense and Saquon Barkley is banged up. The line moved up to -7 despite the Giants getting bet heavily at the sportsbooks. (Won 48-22)
Week 13: (12/1 through 12/5) The Cincinnati Bengals opened as +3 home underdogs to the KC Chiefs. The line has dropped to +2.5 despite only 41% of the public betting on Cincy. We’ve on the Bengals at +2.5 (Won SU 27-24)
Week 12: (11/24 through 11/28) The Jets opened as -3.5 home favs against the Bears and the line has moved to -6.5 and even higher at some sportsbooks. It’s believed that Justin Fields won’t play (banged up shoulder) and even if he did, the Jets have the best defensive line vs. offensive line matchup in Week 12, plus the Bears lost two more players on defense. This could be an absolute bloodbath with the J-E-T-S having huge advantages in the run game, passing game and on defense. Bang the Jets today! (Won 31-20)
Week 11 (11/17 through 11/21) The Philadelphia Eagles opened as -10 road favorites against the Colts. The line has been bet down to +6.5 because the Eagles can’t stop the run and they’re likely to get a fat does of Jonathan Taylor. (Lost 16-17) The New England Patriots opened as -5.5 home favs to the Jets. The line has since gone down to -3.5, but it’s public money causing the move as tons of bettors are hammering the NYJ. We’re fading the line move in anticipation that NE wins handily. (Won 10-3)
Week 10 (11/10 through 11/4) The Houston Texans opened as +5.5 road underdogs at the New York Giants. The line has since been bet down to +4.5 despite only 28% of the public betting on the Texans. The Giants offense is inept and we should be good as long as we’re on the + side of “3”. (Lost 16-24)
Week 9 (11/3 through 11/7) The New Orleans Saints opened at +3.5 and the line has been bet down to +2.5 despite only 35% of bettors siding with the Saints. Baltimore is missing two running backs, their stud TE and their deep threat WR. They’re also missing key defensive pieces. Wrong team favored! (Lost 13-27)
Week 8 (10/27 through 10/31) The Carolina Panthers opened at +6.5 and have been bet down to +4 despite only receiving 36% of the action at the sportsbooks. The Falcons secondary is depleted and the new regime in Carolina has shown the willingness to move the ball downfield with PJ Walker. The Panthers also ran the ball extremely well last week against a tough Bucs front line. I’m expecting the Panthers to win this game straight up! (Covered 34-37)
Week 7 (10/20 through 10/24) The Washington Commanders opened up as +5.5 underdogs and have been bet down to +4.5. The Packers simply aren’t playing good enough football to be favored by that many points on the road. As nutty as it may seem, losing Carson Wentz to injury may actually make Washington better. He held the ball to long, took too many sacks and made poor decisions. (Won 23-21)
Week 6 (10/13 through 10/17): Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5. The Bucs opened as -6.5 road favorites at Pittsburgh, and the line has moved three points up to -9.5 due to the Steelers missing four defensive backs. We expect Tom Brady, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to all have a big day. On the other side of the ball, Pitt possesses one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Conversely, TB has one of the best defensive lines in football. We expect a route! (Lost 20-18)
Week 5 (10/6 through 10/10): The Cleveland Browns opened as +2 home underdogs to the severely injured Los Angeles Chargers. The line was created with the expectation that Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Taven Bryan would miss. Garrett has now been removed from the injured list, Clowney got in a limited practice but is still questionable, and Bryan may play. The Chargers are banged up and won’t be able to stop the run. Amari Cooper has a plus draw on the outside. This game could be a shootout and Cleveland should actually be favored. (Pushed 30-28)
Week 4: Passed.
Week 3 (9/22 through 9/26): The Atlanta Falcons opened as +3 road underdogs at Seattle. The line has been bet down to +1. The Falcons are a much-improved team, while Seattle is weak on both sides of the ball. They got absolutely crushed by the Niners last week, and even though they won their game vs. Denver, the Broncos beat themselves. If you watched the game, you’d have seen that Denver should have won by two touchdowns. I’m betting Atlanta +1. That’s it for line move plays this week. There’s been plenty of movement, but not anything I feel good about. Good luck today! (Won 27-23)
Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): The San Francisco 49ers opened as -8.5 home favorites against the Seattle Seahawks and have been bet up to -9.5, despite only 33% wagering on the Niners. This is a horrible matchup for Seattle, who looked decent on MNF, but could have easily lost by 14+ points had Denver not beaten themselves with penalties and fumbles. The Hawks lost the heart of their defense in Week 1 (Jamal Adams), they’re playing on a short week and don’t match up well with SF at all, as we’re projecting the defensive line to eat the Seahawks OL alive. Don’t read too much into San Fran’s Week 1 performance at Soldier Field, The field conditions were miserable and that variable won’t be in play in Week 2. Lay the points with the San Francisco 49ers and enjoy a blowout winner! (Won 27-7).
Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened up as -3.5 road favorites at New Orleans. TB is an unwarranted favorite on the road in Week 2 as their whole offensive line is banged up, almost all of their wide receivers are hurt or questionable and Chris Godwin will miss. Marcus Lattimore has more or less owned Mike Evans who has a calf issue. The Saints defense is above average. This game projects to be a slugfest and low scoring. We’re not into Jameis Winston revenge game theories, but you can throw that in too if that’s your thing. The spread has dropped from -3.5 to 3, and even 2.5 at some online sportsbooks. Bad spot for TB. We’re betting the Saints at +3 (lost 20-10)
Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): The Indianapolis Colts opened as -4.5 road favorite against Jacksonville. The line has been bet down a full point and a half despite the general betting public hammering the Colts to the tune of 61%. Indy will be without two wide receivers (Pittman/Pierce) and multiple key defensive players are banged up as well. The Colts haven’t won @Jags since 2014, spanning six straight losses on Jacksonville’s home field. This is a rough spot for Indy and we project the Jaguars to win-win this game straight up (Won 24-0).
Week 1 (9/8 through 9/12): The Philadelphia Eagles opened as -3.5 road favorites against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are improved this season, but this matchup is horrid for the Lions, as it puts them in a situation in which their horrible defensive line is going up against the Eagles top-ranked offensive line. Don’t be surprised if Miles Sanders comes back from the dead and puts up 100 yards or more. Philly’s defense looks good this season as well. The public is hitting Philly to the tune of 62% and the Eagles are receiving bets from sharps/wiseguys as well. We anticipate the Eagles to win by a touchdown or more. (Philly blew a huge 38-21 fourth-quarter lead and we lost 38-35)
The New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans game opened at +6.5 and has been bet down to +5.5 as of Saturday night. The G-Men have made a huge upgrade at head coach, and their offensive line and Saquon Barkley appears to be healthy. Oddsmakers are pulling the wool over bettor’s eyes, assuming that the general consensus still sees the Giants as a bad team. Unbelievably, over 70% of football bettors believe the Titans are going to cover. We make this line at NYG +2.5. (Won 21-20)
What Causes NFL Line Moves
There are a number of variables that cause a point spread or money line odds to move. The first notion is that bookies like to have balanced action. This way, you bet one side, I bet the other, and they collect the vigorish. Mind you; this is a perfect world type of situation for the book. I use the word “Notion” because I’ve personally seen a sportsbook be completely one-sided and hold its ground because they like its position. So it’s not always a lock that they’re trying to balance action.
When the sportsbook gets one-sided, they’ve move the point spread in an effort to attempt to attract bettors on the other team. They obviously don’t want to move the spread too much, otherwise, a margin is created where a bettor who got in early can come back and bet on the other side creating what’s called a middle. Sharp bettors jump at the opportunity to bet “middles”, as they only need to cash in one in every 21 bets to break even. This is a pretty astute way of making money, and believe me, when I saw there are people out there making a living doing so. (more so in college basketball)
The second reason lines move in the NFL is sharp action. Astute handicappers with big bankrolls hammer one side of a game which forces the books to move their lines. These bettors are referred to as sharps, wiseguys, and, if it’s a group, “betting syndicates.” This type of a bettor is super rare but has the ability to move lines with their wagering action. This bettor has boots on the ground at practices, is tied into team beat writers, has computer programs that run simulations and is tuned in to the weather, and has very deep knowledge of the game. If you see a line move on a game and can’t decipher what caused it, there’s a good chance a sharp has found value and acted on it.
The third reason lines move is the weather. Rain, wind, and snow create issues for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends alike. Rain makes it tough to get a footing and makes for a slippery ball. The wind obviously affects the flight of the ball and creates problems when it exceeds 15MPH. Lastly, snow creates slipperiness and visibility issues and, when in big amounts, can make some players not want to be on the field. Today’s NFL is a bit different than that of the old days, as there are more domed stadiums in play these days. Tip: As noted prior, wind affects a quarterbacks passing ability when it exceeds 15 miles per hour. This is not my opinion. It’s statistically proven. Keep a close eye on the NFL stadium’s weather. It can make you some good money!
The Holy Grail: Reverse Line Movement
If you’re a novice football bettor but serious about winning, we highly recommend keeping an eye on line moves where the general public is betting in the opposite direction. This is a clear sign of sharp action and is one of few instances in which we don’t have a problem with betting on a game blindly. Example: The Los Angeles Chargers are a -7 point favorite against the Green Bay Packers. The line drops down to Green Bay +4. However, the general consensus is that 70% of bettors are siding with the Chargers. This is a huge signal that sharps are hammering the team whose point spread has dropped. The question now becomes, “has the line moved so much that there’s no more value?” This is a good time to mention the importance of knowing NFL key numbers (common final score margins). Generally speaking, these numbers consist of 3, 4, 6, and 7, and if you cross too many, there’s a good chance that you got to the party too late and the value doesn’t exist anymore. NFL betting isn’t easy!
Live Betting
Needless to say, if you’re betting a game live-in-progress, the line is going to move often. This article was built with pre-game betting in mind. On an unrelated note, numerous sportsbooks offer live wagering. Most of the platforms out there leave something to be desired, as you have to click a bunch of times to get your bet down, and oftentimes, the damn line has moved while you’re attempting to complete this protocol. If you’re a person who enjoys betting games live, we HIGHLY recommend checking out the live betting platform at Bovada Sportsbook. It absolutely blows away all the rest in terms of quality, ease of use, and pick-to-click efficiency! They also offer a 50% signup bonus up to $250, rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose, and they pay fast if you’re using crypto!
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