Lay the Points: Cards vs. Seahawks Pick

Arizona Cardinals (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

Week 7 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 22, 2023, at 4:05 PM EDT

Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

TV: Fox

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ARI +8/SEA -8 (Bovada – Spend 2 minutes checking them out! You’ll quickly see why it’s where WE bet!)

Money Line: ARI +300, SEA -400

Over/Under Total: 44.5

The Arizona Cardinals make the trip up to the northwest to take on the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West battle on Sunday. Neither team had a pleasant Sunday, each taking losses. The Cardinals slipped to 1-5, losing to the Rams, 26-9. The Seahawks, meanwhile, made a game of it but fell on the road to the Bengals, 17-13, snapping their three-game win streak. Back at home where they’re typically better, they have a winnable spot this week. Can they get it done at home, or will some of the feistiness we’ve seen from the Cardinals in spots resurface at Lumen Field on Sunday?

Is Arizona Fraying at the Edges?

Some of the early-season mojo seems to be fading for Arizona. After two close losses and a win over Dallas, the Cardinals opened by covering three straight spreads. They haven’t covered once in the last three weeks, taking more pronounced beatings to the Niners, Bengals, and Rams in their last three games. Last week, we saw their run-game suffering without James Conner. That line is starting to wane, and Joshua Dobbs is probably being asked to do too much as a runner, while also getting the ball into the hands of all of Arizona’s different targets. The run-game has lost its edge, and aerially, they’re just strapped with a subpar starting QB who isn’t operating in a lot of clean pockets.

Defensively, the Cardinals also appear to be fading. Having been torched both aerially and on the ground in the last two weeks, Arizona can’t really stop anything. We’ve seen Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams run rampant over this group, while also becoming the first “D” this season to allow a big game from Joe Burrow. They have what might be a slightly underrated pass-rush and can make some big plays here and there, but some injuries have started to cost them, and we’re not seeing the same level of resistance we saw the first few weeks.

Can Seattle Take Advantage?

On the surface, one would have to think so. First of all, it’s hard not to notice how the Seattle offense takes on a new light when at home. It seems Geno Smith is better at home and therefore overall team returns seem to improve. In a spot like this, some of Seattle’s team liabilities wane a bit, namely their dicey line and issues on defense. Against a more subdued defensive line with Arizona and an offense that is spinning its wheels, some of the more positive features of Seattle can better resonate.

Geno Smith’s paths to offensive success this week are multiple. Kenneth Walker II is running hungry and could be trouble for an Arizona run-defense that has really soured over the last month. For all their issues up front, Seattle’s line hasn’t been terrible in opening holes and helping spring forth a run-game. With the one-two wide receiver punch of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Smith should also be able to exact a toll aerially. And I’m not so sure Seattle isn’t thinking about their only other divisional game of the season in week one when the Rams upset them with a stunning 17-point win. Divisionally, they’d like to get on the board this week.

The Seattle defense won’t be accused of being good, but maybe there’s a slight turn in form. After their first three games, where the point and yardage allowances were jarring, they’ve steadied the ship. First, they clamped down on the Giants, which may be no major feat. But last week on the road against a Bengals team that had seemingly gotten their act together the prior week, they gave up just 17 points, with some nice play in the secondary. So, while exploitable, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t decent spots for this defense to show its fangs a little bit.

Matchup Issues for Arizona This Week

The problem for Arizona is that it’s hard to really latch onto something positive that you think can take you to a win/cover. We’ve seen Dobbs flash some feet, scampering off with some nice runs. Marquise Brown is a nice weapon, and Zach Ertz is still dependable. They have these other pieces, like WR Michael Wilson and WR Rondale Moore who can do damage. But with Conner out, the state of that line, and non-ideal pieces throughout this unit, a home-Seattle defense could start to build on some of the positive developments we’ve seen unfold in the last few weeks.

You look at Seattle on both sides of the ball and there’s at least some continuity with cemented pieces—a longtime coach, key entrenched offensive pieces, etc. Then you look at the Cardinals with a new head coach, a new face behind center in Dobbs, a new top receiver in Brown, and new faces in the backfield, along with a no-name defense where it’s hard to locate real difference-makers.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

Seattle as a larger-sized favorite, even if it is perceived as a good spot, leaves something to be desired. I just sense a little extra urgency this week coming off last week and not wanting to take home losses to the two worst teams in the division, having already lost to the Rams. Seattle should be able to hold it together on defense, while their backfield and aerial-attack start to exact a toll on the Cardinals’ defense. I think with the Seahawks showing some edge this week, along with the waning returns we’re seeing from Arizona, I can see Seattle cruising to the finish line with the win and the cover on Sunday. I’ll take the Seahawks.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Seattle Seahawks minus 8 points.