Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills ATS Pick

Las Vegas Raiders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Week 2 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1PM EDT

Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

TV: CBS

Point Spread: LV +8.5/BUF -8.5 (Bet on games at -105 odds at BetAnySports! Be smart!)

Money Line: Las Vegas +310, Buffalo -415

Over/Under Total: 47

The Las Vegas Raiders make the long trip to western New York on Sunday to battle the Buffalo Bills in a big week two AFC matchup. The Raiders took care of business on Sunday with a nice road-win in Denver, 17-16. They find themselves on the road again this week in a really tough spot, taking on a Buffalo team that was handed an overtime loss to the Jets on MNF, 22-16. The Raiders might have to brace for what should be an urgent Buffalo squad in their home-opener on Sunday.

Too Tall of a Task for the Raiders?

It would be quite the bonanza for the Raiders to open the season with two road wins, and this one would really put wind in their sails. They are catching a Buffalo team coming off an overtime game on the short week, though you’d figure maybe that doesn’t mean much in week two. At any rate, the Bills didn’t look good, albeit against a defense in the Jets that vastly outshines what the Raiders bring to the table. It’s still a big opportunity for the Raiders to start the season by flying out of the gates with two wins away from home.

The Raiders’ win over Denver was hardly awe-inspiring, as the key to the game was the Raiders’ defense performing better than advertised and keeping a Denver offense subdued, which hasn’t been that hard to do since the beginning of last season. New addition Jimmy Garoppolo was pretty good, other than a pick, throwing two TDs. Newly-added WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable) looks like a decent fit, as he caught a pair of touchdowns in his Raiders debut. And with Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, there are two guys who are always candidates to put forth a big game. In other words, if there is, in fact something askew with the Bills, it’s not like the Raiders don’t have enough to make them pay for it.

But Not So Fast…

It’s easy to fall for the old Week One Fallacy, where NFL observers long-starved for actual on-field info place too much stock in a week one result. The fact is that there are going to be times where even a Josh Allen-led Buffalo offense isn’t going to fire. Going against that Jets’ defense on the road is a prime spot for something like that to happen. Even during the Bills’ run of contention over the last several years, there are duds sprinkled in there left and right. It happens. The fact that the Bills are working in a revamped run game, along with several other pieces on offense, only contributes to the notion that week one’s showing isn’t what we’re going to continue seeing.

Week one made Buffalo look bad, and the Raiders look good. But how good would the Buffalo defense have looked if playing a Denver offense that might not ever get it together with what they now have? How good would the Raiders’ offense have looked in East Rutherford against the Jets’ “D?” So, context is everything. I think what really compounds things for the Raiders is the urgency I’d expect to see from the Bills come this Sunday. Over the last handful of years, they usually respond in the affirmative when put into bad spots in the regular season. Not that one loss will elicit the utmost urgency, but contenders aren’t looking to start the season 0-2, losing to the Rodgers-less Jets and a Raiders squad most figured to be pretty bad.

Major Issues for the Raiders on Sunday

I’d look for Josh Allen to play well and really take it to the Raiders’ defense, a unit that was made to look pretty good in game one. The type of aerial options he has should really resonate against a Raiders’ defense that is left to pick up the pieces after a period of time where seemingly not one personnel move went their way. Whether it’s Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, one of their two tight ends, or these other big-play Buffalo receivers who pop up here and there, it’s going to be a lot for this Raiders’ defense to contain.

I’m not sure the other side of the ball offers abundantly more promise for the Raiders. Again, guys like Jacobs and Adams can be matchup-proof, but that offensive line is going to struggle mightily against the aggressive Buffalo front seven. This just doesn’t ring of a spot where you’re going to see Garoppolo able to operate in a clean pocket, with Jacobs peeling off runs left and right. For them to hang in there on offense, they’re going to need the defense to play in tandem, and having both sides of the ball in fine working order in this spot seems to be asking for a lot to go right.

Lay the Points

There is always a chance that a team has enough things change subtly to alter the recipe for success. We’ve seen teams like the Bills, who have been knocking on the door for several years, sometimes take a step backward. To be fair, Allen seems more mistake-prone as time goes on, and maybe they’re getting passed by other AFC contenders on the rise. I just can’t imagine they’ve receded enough to where they’re still not an extremely-dangerous proposition at home, with a more urgent mind frame and an opponent where they can start to put week one behind them. I’ll take the Bills.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills minus 8.5 points.

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