Knicks vs. Nuggets Picks & Predictions 11/16/22

New York Knicks (7-7 SU, 7-7-0 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (9-4 SU, 6-7-0 ATS)
When: Wednesday, November 16th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: ALT

Point Spread: NY +4.5/ DEN -4.5
Total: 233.0
Money Line: New York Knicks +160/ -190

Notable Injuries

Knicks

• Mitchell Robinson (Out) Knee

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Illness
• Ish Smith (Doubtful) Calf
• Nikola Jokic (Out) Health Protocols
• Bones Hyland (Doubtful) Health Protocols
• Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Recent Form

So far, the Knicks have put together an overall record of 7-7, while going 7-7-0 vs the spread. In the team’s past 3 games, their overall mark sits at 2-1. New York is 1-2 vs. the spread in these matchups.

The Knicks are coming off a 118-111 win over the Jazz. This away win came despite entering the game as the 5-point underdogs. New York went into halftime with a narrow 3-point lead before being able to slightly add to that margin by the games end. Leading the team in scoring was Jalen Brunson, as he contributed 25 points while hitting 50.0% of his shots.

So far, the Nuggets have put together an overall record of 9-4, while going 6-7-0 vs the spread. Against the spread, Denver has a mark of 1-2. Straight up, their record is 2-1 in these games.

In their previous game, the Nuggets took down the Bulls by a score of 126-103. Not only did they come away with a straight-up win, but they also covered the spread as 2-point favorites. Not only did the team win the game, but they also outscored the Bulls in every quarter. In the win, Michael Porter Jr. led the team in scoring with 31 points on a field goal percentage of 68.8%.

The Historicals

In their 2 wins over the Knicks, the Nuggets won by scores of 113-99 and 115-99. Similar to their season-long average, the Knicks averaged 107.0 points per game vs the Nuggets. On the other side, Denver saw an improvement in their scoring numbers when playing the Knicks, as they averaged 122.5 points per game in these matchups. In terms of betting, Denver has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous 5 matchups vs New York. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +15 points per game in favor of the Nuggets. New York and Denver averaged a combined 217 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

The Knicks come into today’s game as one of the better scoring teams in the NBA at 114.9 points per game (11th). When looking at the Knicks’ pace of play, they tend to play an up-tempo style of basketball. So far, the team is in the upper half of the NBA in possessions per game, averaging 101.8. Heading into the game, the Knicks will look to continue with their formula of playing fast and getting to the basket, as they are near the top of the league in two-point fields made per game.

Defensively, the Knicks are one of the top-performing units in the league, giving up 106.6 points per contest (6th).

This season, the Knicks’ offense has primarily worked through Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson, who are 1st and 2nd on the team in scoring. In his 14 games, Randle is 43rd in the NBA at 20.43 points per game. So far, he and Brunson have accounted for 32% of the team’s field goal attempts while combining to average 40.36 points per contest. In addition to sitting 2nd on the team in scoring, Jalen Brunson is grabbing 3.5 rebounds for New York to go along with 6.93 assists.

Coming into today’s action, Denver is averaging 117.1 points per contest. This figure places them 5th in the league. When looking at the team’s pace of play, the Nuggets are currently below the league average in possessions per game, averaging just 100.0 per contest. So far, the team’s deliberate style of play has not slowed down the offense, as they have been particularly effective inside the arc, ranking 6th in made 2-point field goals per game.

Against the Knicks, the Nuggets will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked just 14th in points allowed.

Denver will be counting on Michael Porter Jr. to put together a strong scoring performance vs. the Knicks, as Nikola Jokic has been ruled out for today’s game. So far, Jokic leads the team in scoring at 20.77 points per game. Porter Jr. is 2nd on the team at 18.0 points per contest, which sits 62.0th in the NBA. In his 12 games, he has hit 49.7% of his field goal attempts and is grabbing 6.42 rebounds per game.

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Betting Trends

• Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
• Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.