Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Spread Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Week 2 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1PM EDT
Where: Everbank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS
Point Spread: KC -3/JAC +3 (Bovada – The best bookie on the web!)
Money Line: Kansas City -145, Jacksonville +125
Over/Under Total: 52
The Kansas City Chiefs come to the Sunshine State to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in a massive week two AFC showdown. Kansas City opened the NFL season at home, coming out on the wrong end of a 21-20 squeaker to the upstart Lions. They look to right the ship against the team they beat in the divisional playoffs last season en route to their Super Bowl win, as they will be hosted by a Jaguars team that labored a bit in week one before eventually vanquishing the Colts, 31-21. Who should we be getting behind in this week two AFC conference battle?
Status of the Chiefs
When dealing with longtime contenders and teams with Super Bowl glory, some unevenness is expected at times during the regular season. Without Travis Kelce, the Chiefs were taking on a rising Lions’ team and got nipped at the wire. The sounding of any alarm bells would be premature. You’d think, coming off the long week, they’d get Kelce back in there, as it is truly a faceless aerial package without him. There is talent, with some receivers with nice upside, but for a Super Bowl winning team that doesn’t really run the ball a lot and isn’t known for defense, it creates a situation where a lot is riding on Kelce to get back in there and keep things rolling and he’s going to be 34 next month. It didn’t seem to hurt them last season, but if injuries to Kelce or age starts creeping into the equation, they might be facing a lot of questions this season.
Be that as it may, it’s hard not to notice that in the last several seasons under Patrick Mahomes, they usually produce when they need it. With all their success and ease in taking down the AFC West year after year, you’re not going to see them shot from a cannon every week. But when they need to answer the call, or there’s a hint that things are about to go sideways, they are quite adept at righting the ship in quick order. Jacksonville is a team on the rise, and it’s been a drastic rise, going from a 4-8 team last season to winning a playoff game. And there are difference-makers on both sides of the ball. But I’m not sure I’d be feeling so secure about a Jaguars’ defense facing a more urgent KC offense that comes into week two with an ax to grind.
Edges for the Jaguars this Week
Again, it rings empty to call out the Chiefs for a mish-mosh offense with less-defined roles and no real stars outside of Mahomes and Kelce. It’s still hard not to like what has been formed over the past season with Lawrence and this offense, with guys like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne. They add a returning Calvin Ridley, who looked great in week one, along with rookie Tank Bigsby, who looks to make some nice contributions and scored a TD in week one. And it’s understandable why people would prefer an offense with more clarity and, frankly, better overall talent. Whether it’s enough to bridge the gap created by the Mahomes Factor is another matter, but this Jacksonville offense has really come together and with the stakes as high as they get, only lost by seven at Arrowhead in the divisional playoffs. You’d figure now at home, they could maybe make a run at this thing.
Looking at KC a Different Way
The Kelce component to this equation is a critical one. But perhaps we’re placing too much stock in a Kansas City offense that just doesn’t strike fear on paper. Whereas we see a tight circle of proven contributors littering the Jacksonville offense, we see a big old committee for the Chiefs. Even with Kelce out last Thursday, we saw Mahomes connect with 11 different ball-catchers. He handed the ball off to five different players. And just because it’s hard to put a finger on it doesn’t mean it can’t work. It’s just odd, is all. Usually when a team with this much success that doesn’t run the ball well and doesn’t play great defense, there are clear aerial star players you can identify, and it’s just not like that on this team. It’s not that different from last season when they won the whole thing, so what’s the problem?
People can start to form storylines in their mind. They take a Chiefs team that is far better in reality, with a standardized NFL assessment not really doing justice. They come into a stadium of a team that has given the home faithful something to finally get excited about, as this is their home-opener. They have been red-hot and, since 2/3 through last season, have hardly experienced any setbacks, a narrow playoff defeat to KC in Arrowhead their only semi-recent loss. This is big for the Jaguars, who, with a win, will already distinguish themselves as a bonafide legitimate conference threat. In their home-opener, expecting anything other than an urgent Jags’ bunch could be a mistake.
Take the Points
I anticipate a close game where having three points might come in handy. I can’t help but think that this Jacksonville offense is better built to succeed at this time. I don’t think they’ll run over the Chiefs defense, nor will they completely subdue Mahomes. I just see them able to make this a close game, using their wealth of options and the fine play of Lawrence to take it to a Chiefs’ defense that isn’t that good. I see the Jags either keeping this really close or maybe even making a little run at the “W.” I’ll take the Jaguars in this one.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus 3 points. Bet your Week 2 NFL predictions for FREE by scoring a massive 100% real cash bonus when you use promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
