Kansas City Chiefs (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time:Sunday, October 8, 2017 at 8:30 P.M. EST
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: NBC
by Jerbeek, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC pk/Hou pk
Over/Under Total:45.5
The Kansas City Chiefs will try to remain undefeated when they travel to Houston on Sunday night to meet the Houston Texans. The Chiefs remained undefeated both SU and ATS with a miraculous cover in Week 4 against the Redskins. Washington had a chance at the lead but dropped a pass in the end zone. The Chiefs then drove the field in less than 1 minute and kicked a field goal to take a 23-20 lead with 4 seconds left. For anybody that was holding a Redskins ticket it looked like a sure win until they started pitching the ball around and KC defender Justin Houston got his hands on the ball and took it in for the score. The late touchdown not only got a cover for the Chiefs but also pushed the total from under to over. It was surely a game that gamblers will remember for a long time whether they were on the winning or the losing side. Houston is coming off a week 4 dismantling of the Tennessee Titans beating the Titans 57-14. Houston has been on a roll since replacing QB Tom Savage with rookie QB Deshaun Watson. Watson is 2-1 as a starter but almost pulled off the upset in New England in his second career start.
Chiefs QB Alex Smith is off to a great start to what could possibly be his last year in Kansas City. Smith has thrown for 1,067 yards completing 76% of his passes. He has thrown for 8 touchdowns and has not yet been intercepted. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt, who was not expected to be a starter this season until Spencer Ware went down with a season ending injury, has been off to an amazing start. Hunt leads the NFL in rushing with 502 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns and has added another 2 touchdowns and 157 yards receiving. The receiving game is led by Tyreek Hill who has big play ability with his amazing speed. Hill has 288 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns. TE Travis Kelce has also chipped in with 255 yards receiving and a 2 touchdowns.
The Texans have been on fire since QB Deshaun Watson has taken over as they have scored 93 points in their last 2 games. Watson has 811 yards passing and 7 touchdowns and as ran for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns. The ground game is led by Lamar Miller who has 257 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. WR is Deandre Hopkins is the leading receiver for the Texans with 311 yards and 2 touchdowns.
This is not your normal conservative Kansas City offense as they have proven to be one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL so far in 2017. Kansas City has rushed for 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 4.6 yards per play. They have passed for 8.0 yards per attempt against teams that average 7.6 yards per attempt. Overall they are averaging 7.3 yards per play against teams that average giving up 6.3 yards per play.
Houston has rushed for 4.2 yards against teams that average 4.6 yards per attempt. They have passed for 6.1 yards per attempt against teams that average 6.8 yards. Overall they have been below average as they have averaged 5.1 yards per play against teams that give up an average of 5.8 yards per play.
The Kansas City defense struggled to start the game against the Redskins in week 4 as the Redskins scored on their first 2 possessions to take a 10-0 lead but the Chiefs got tougher as the game wore on. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run as the defense has given up 4.3 yards per rush against teams that average 4.2 yards. In passing the Chiefs have given up 6.8 yards per attempt against teams that average 7.5 yards. Overall the defense has given up 5.8 yards per play against teams that average 6.1 yards.
On defense, Houston have held opponents to 3.7 yards rushing against teams that average 4.1 yards. In the passing game they have given up 7.1 yards per attempt against teams that average 7.0 yards. Overall they have given up 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 5.6 yards.
Jerbeeks Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Chiefs have been on a great roll the past 2 seasons but I think they are in a letdown spot as they go on the road and look ahead to their next 3 games against the Steelers, Raiders and Broncos. The Texans can not afford another loss and I think they will be ready to roll in this night game. I also like the fact that the line has moved from KC being favored to now a Pick em game. I look for the Texans to win a hard fought game by a score of 20-17. My recommendation is to play the Houston Texans at Pick. Bet this game and all of your wagers at a sportsbook that lets you bet at discounted odds (-105 instead of -110), thatoffers live in game betting and that has the biggest variety of wagers (including high school football betting). Oh, and they offer FAST no hassle payouts as well! —> 5Dimes!