Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: October 4th, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Paul Brown Stadium
TV: Direct TV, CBS Locally
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, jhsportsline.com
Point Spread: KC +3.5/ CINN -3.5
Over/Under Total: 44
The Kansas City Chiefs were the latest victim to go against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. On Monday Night Football, Green Bay defeated Kansas City 38-28 as 5.5-point home chalk. The line was bet down from Packers minus seven as bettors were hoping that Kansas City would bounce back after committing five turnovers two weeks ago. The Chiefs were outgained 448-326, and most of their yards were gained when the Packers were playing a prevent defense. Kansas City sits at 1-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. The good news for the Chiefs is that a wide receiver finally caught a touchdown pass after going the entire season without one last year. Jeremy Maclin caught eight passes for 141 yards and that touchdown, with most of his production coming in “garbage” time.
The Cincinnati Bengals continue to roll, even as underdogs. They defeated the Ravens 28-24 as 2.5-point road dogs in comeback fashion. Andy Dalton’s 7-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Green with 2:10 capped off the winning drive. The Bengals outgained Baltimore 458-398, with 372 of those yards coming through the air. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green had monster games going up against the Ravens’ weak secondary. The Bengals are 3-0 ITS this season and have won the stats in five straight games, dating back to last season. The Bengals defense did not record any sacks for the first time this season. Look for the Chiefs’ offensive line to struggle, coming off a short week against a pissed off pass rush.
This line feels a tad low to me with the Bengals bringing in the better offense and defense. The Chiefs do have a significant advantage in special teams play. The Bengals have won three straight games in come-from-behind- fashion. You have to wonder if that eventually comes back to haunt this team. However, the Bengals offense is averaging 28.3 points and 414 yards per game. They are plus two in turnover margin, which seems low for a 3-0 team. The defense looks solid, holding foes to 18.7 points and 332 yards per game. The Bengals should be able to contain the Chiefs’ running game with an extra defender while playing bump-and-run coverage on the outside.
The Chiefs offense is averaging 26.3 points and 323 yards per game. Those numbers are a bit inflated after facing the Packers’ prevent defense for much of the second half. The Chiefs don’t really attempt to throw the ball down-field when the games are close. It was the same offense the Chiefs ran last year. At some point, they must open things up or it will be a long season in Kansas City. The Chiefs’ defense is allowing 29.7 points and 381 yards per game. They have recorded nine sacks on the season after sacking Aaron Rodgers twice. The Chiefs can win this game if their front seven plays tenacious. That’s going to be tough off a short week. Not to mention, the Chiefs will be playing their second consecutive road game. That road game is against a quality opponent, in which the Bengals’ defense did not record any sacks last week. Look out Alex Smith, here comes the boom!
I see the biggest advantage on the offensive line. The Bengals have been solid at run blocking and pass protection while the Chiefs have struggled in both areas. The Chiefs are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points since 2012. The Bengals are 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in all home games over the last three seasons. No letdown in this spot for the Bengals. Cincinnati is 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS after playing a division game over the last three seasons.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
The Bengals have been tough at home and will be playing a team that is coming off a short week, while playing its second straight road game. I will swallow the points and take the home team in this spot.
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