Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Pick ATS | Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 8
Date/Time: Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs come to Allegiant Stadium for an AFC West showdown with the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders fell to 2-5 with their third straight loss on Sunday, a 20-15 defeat to the Rams. They return home for this familiar divisional pairing against the two-time defending champion Chiefs. On Sunday, Kansas City moved to 6-0 with a 28-18 win over the 49ers on the road. They are back on the road this week, looking to push it to 7-0 in what seems like a winnable spot. Let’s break it down!

Sad State of the Raiders

Things have been getting sour for the Raiders for a number of weeks, and Sunday seemed to be the stamp of confirmation. Other than rookie tight end Brock Bowers, the sources for optimism are thin. Even with the Rams sputtering in really all dimensions of the game, the Raiders never really looked like they were going to win the game. The QB-switch to Aidan McConnell went south with him hurting his hand, with Gardner Minshew going back into action and promptly throwing three picks.

Between Davante Adams being traded and other talented veterans of the team rumored to be trade bait, the lack of response head coach Antonio Pierce is getting, the shambolic situation at quarterback, and low morale, you have to start wondering. It’s getting bleak and since a Week two road-win over Baltimore and a subsequent narrow win over the Browns, there have been some ugly sequences. Everywhere you turn, there is no solace. They’re back at home, but that hasn’t paid off much. They ran the ball a little better last week, but it still didn’t amount to much. Bowers looks to be a real star at the position, but with this QB play and all the miscues, it doesn’t resonate.

Letdown Spot for the Chiefs?

Some details could be tantalizing for the prospective Raiders bettor this week when looking at the conditions the Chiefs face. First off, they just seem a little easier to beat on paper than what you end up seeing on the field. That’s the first aspect of the mirage that often leaves people chasing their tails going against the Chiefs. They are back on the road for the second straight week, already with a nice buffer at 6-0. They see their opponent is on the field flailing and fighting to keep their noses above water, so a little mental let-up is natural in that spot. And while they are 6-0, we’ve seen the Chiefs in their championship era sometimes not press the issue at all points during the regular season. Throw in a nice-sized number they need to cover, and you can at least see the angle.

For the purposes of this game, though, can the Raiders even capitalize on a lack of urgency? After putting up 15 points in a must-win against a bad Rams defense last week, what happens here against a far better defense? And while the Chiefs’ offensive corps lacks some fire, what can a Raiders’ defense really do about it at this point? While this can’t reasonably be pinpointed as a week to catch the Chiefs at their best, it’s questionable whether the Raiders are even together enough to make it matter.

Kansas City: Good Value?

It’s not easy covering double-digits on the road in this league, regardless of opponent. When you’re unbeaten with margin for error on the road for the second week in a row, it can be an extra hurdle. Again, it’s worth mentioning what a mirage the Chiefs can be at times. Just this past Sunday, we saw Patrick Mahomes labor to a 154-yard performance, throwing no TDs and two picks. Kareem Hunt led the way on the ground, averaging under 4 yards a run. The leading receiver on the day was backup tight end Noah Gray. On the surface, that combination of events wouldn’t seem to be enough to beat the defending conference champions by ten on the road, but it was.

At a more-frequent clip, we see the KC defense taking over games and if they can do it to the 49ers, even a version of the team dealing with injuries, they can certainly do it to the Raiders. On Sunday, it came in the form of turnovers, with the Chiefs’ defense registering three picks from San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy. Still, it’s a big number to cover, and for the Chiefs to cover this spread, they will need to win by a margin they’ve only surpassed once this season—against the Saints starting a rookie first-timer. The Chiefs can sometimes be the kind of established team that is more or less comfortable with going at its own pace and doing enough to just win. It’s not like they have anything to prove against the Raiders in week 8.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

Just when you think it’s not such a horrible idea to take the value on the Raiders, different things pop into your mind. Whether it’s the lack of firepower aerially, the mess at QB, the lack of a running game, the issues in the trenches, or the general disconnect that seems to exist in the locker room, it’s not an easy team to back at the moment. You have two teams here at the opposite ends of the spectrum of functionality, with things coming seemingly so easy for the Chiefs, while the Raiders need different stars to align for something positive to happen. And while there could be some good value that lies ahead for the Raiders, I need to see it first. I’ll take the Chiefs this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 10 points.