Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Pick ATS

The Kansas City Chiefs come to Allegiant Stadium for a Week 12 AFC West faceoff with the Las Vegas Raiders. Neither team had a good time of it last week. The Raiders saw their mini two-game streak come to an end with a 20-13 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. The Chiefs, meanwhile, played the Eagles at home on MNF, coming off the bye-week and losing 21-17, to fall to 7-3. They take to the road this week and hope to get back on the right track. Let’s break this one down!

State of the Raiders

It’s hard to sugar-coat a season where the head coach is let go midway through the year. That’s usually not a good sign. Against the Jets and Giants at home, they were able to get things back on track and didn’t humiliate themselves last week against Miami. A lot of people thought coming off the bye, the Dolphins offense would mangle the Raiders, and scoring just 20 points continues a nice trend we’ve seen from the Raiders’ defense since Antonio Pierce assumed head coaching duties on an interim basis.

There is some promise on offense, as would be the case with any team that has talent like RB Joshua Jacobs and WR Davante Adams. But with Aidan O’Connell presumably still at starting quarterback, what you’re going to be able to count on getting from this group is iffy. They have some talent, with a rising tight end in Michael Mayer, a nice number-two receiver in Jakobi Meyers, and others, as well. It’s just that the QB play has been so shoddy in spots, exacerbated by a line not always upholding its end of the deal. Vegas quarterbacks have combined for 17 interceptions and only ten passing touchdowns. So maybe being .500 up to last week isn’t so bad considering all their different drawbacks.

Having failed to cover the spread just twice in their last 8 games, it seems the Raiders are generally a bit underrated. And this is a spot, as a home-team getting a nice cushion of points, where a team like this can hold some value. After all, we’ve seen the Chiefs languish in spots within their division, taking a loss to Denver a few weeks ago. They’re not the thrill-a-minute offense they once were, making a Raiders team that is more competent than they appear on the surface seem like perhaps not such a bad choice this week.

Challenges for the Raiders this Week

It’s never ideal to go against a Chiefs team looking to atone for a loss the previous week. If anything, during the Chiefs’ long run here at the top of the conference, they respond pretty well when things start to go south a little. They generally reel it in pretty quickly. Losing a winnable game coming off the bye last week, I’d look for the Chiefs to be trying to restore order. But for all the improving results we’ve seen and a better overall energy with McDaniels gone, the name of the game is points. We look up and see the Raiders putting up 12 against Chicago, 14 against Detroit, 16 against the Jets, and 13 against the Dolphins last week. Other than a 30-point performance against the Giants, their recent stretch of games doesn’t promote a ton of offensive optimism.

This Kansas City defense is no joke. In their last two games, they gave up a combined 35 points to the Dolphins and Eagles. That pass-defense has really come around, and they can generate a nice pass-rush that could trouble this Raiders’ offense. We’ve seen the Raiders thrive in some situations this season, and there is a built-in quirk in playing divisional teams at home that could resonate in this spot in some way. But you also wonder if playing good teams who have an ax to grind the weeks they play the Raiders is a good set of conditions for Vegas. A look at their successes this season shows opponents who were not very good and in a valley the week the Raiders played them. Against good teams with an agenda, the results might not be as great.

Value

Alas, these observations are reflected in the spread. It’s not a small one for a home divisional opponent, getting almost double-digit points. Even in losing last week, they hung in there nicely against the ‘Fins and with two wins before that, you get the feeling taking the Chiefs that you’re betting into a Raiders team that has some fire in their belly. Guys are playing hard out there. That defense isn’t getting pushed around as they were earlier in the season. On the other sideline, we see a KC offense that while still capable, isn’t pounding opponents like they used to. From a value standpoint, the Chiefs perhaps start looking like a slightly less-rosy proposition.

Take the Points

This is not a bet made without some trepidation. It’s just that when watching the Chiefs’ offense, it’s hard to fancy them as a team covering big spreads on the road. The receivers are really struggling, leaving them with an aging, but still great tight end, and the magic of Mahomes. Not that this can’t be enough, but I think there are enough good signs on the Raiders’ defense to make it so maybe they can keep this one in the ballpark at home and emerge with the cover this week. I’ll take a whirl on the Raiders in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Las Vegas Raiders plus 9.5 points.