Jets vs. Pats Week 7 Odds & Predictions

Week 7 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 1PM EDT

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

TV: CBS

Point Spread: NYJ +7/NE -7 (Bovada – Absolute BEST live wagering platform on the web! They offer lines almost 100% of the game; where others only do so on commercial breaks! Good stuff!)

Over/Under Total: 42.5

The New York Jets come to Foxborough for an AFC East battle with the New England Patriots on Sunday. This familiar pairing features a different dynamic, as normally, a 1-4 Jets squad would really be up against it against their longtime division tormentor. And that may well be the case, but at 2-4, the Patriots have their own problems. On Sunday, they were beaten in overtime by the Cowboys, 35-29. They now await an incoming Jets team coming off the bye following a 27-20 loss to the Falcons in London two weeks ago. Let’s break it down!

Pats Still a Cut Above?

It’s early in the season to be seeing part two of a division rivalry, but the Pats already hammered the Jets, 25-6, in East Rutherford. Notable on the day were the zero Jets’ touchdowns and the four interceptions by Zach Wilson. A lot has happened in the last month, with the Patriots taking some lumps, both in their overall results but also with some injury setbacks. But needless to say, anyone who saw that first game might not find it so easy to get behind the Jets this week.

While the gap has narrowed and the Patriots are no longer the division kingpins, they may still be a clear notch above a Jets’ team that is struggling to keep their nose above water. Last week was disastrous how the Patriots managed to give away a win against the Cowboys, but just being in that position probably puts them ahead of the Jets, whose out-of-nowhere win over Tennessee is their only triumph on the season.

Hope for the Jets?

The landscape has changed a bit. With their win over the Titans, at least the Jets showed what can happen on a good day. They are coming off the bye, where they hopefully figured some things out. New England, conversely, is coming off a deflating overtime loss to the Cowboys when everything went wrong late when it seemed they pulled it out behind rookie Mac Jones. Not that coming home from London after losing to Atlanta and then having an extra week to let it ruminate will mean the Jets come into this with the wind in their sails, but New England might be sagging a bit more than they were when these teams met earlier this season.

While completely undermined by turnovers in the first game, the Jets weren’t totally without success in part one against the Pats. They ran the ball with Michael Carter and others, while Wilson was connecting with his receivers when he wasn’t throwing it to the other team. With Jamison Crowder back in the fold, they have some interesting weapons aerially alongside of Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, and others. It’s a pretty thin cast to be sure, but if Wilson can showcase a steadier hand, one can make a case for a more competitive showing.

When a team is working in so many new pieces and has a long history of excellence, you want to cut them some slack. But maybe the Patriots are just bad. Other than the first win over the Jets, they beat Houston on a last-second FG. They were the only team to lose to Miami so far this season, and their high-water mark of the season might be a two-point loss to Tampa in Brady’s return to Foxborough. But despite figures across the board that aren’t all that alarming overall, there’s something negative about this team that’s hard to define.

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What to Expect

A few aspects of this game could be steady, such as New England being able to peck away offensively. They will run the ball while Jones hits receivers. Even with Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Nelson Agholor making for a no-frills group, they can sometimes get a lot out of it, with good tight end play and Damien Harris getting his on the ground. It’s a formula that worked with some success a month ago. With Rhamondre Stevenson, a revamped tight end scheme with Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, we’re seeing the Pats’ offense start to form an identity. But like his rookie counterpart, Jones has been prone to throwing the ball to opposing defenders, with a big Dallas pick-six on Sunday being key to the Patriots’ eventual loss.

With two mistake-prone rookie quarterbacks, it could come down to defense. And while the Patriots defense hasn’t been clutch all the time this season, they have shown a greater ability to change a game in their favor. It happened the first time these teams played this season, and it’s been more characteristic of them as a defense overall. It’s just that a four-interception performance isn’t something this defense can depend on from Wilson this week. And without all the miscues and a number to cover on top of it, is this a spot where you want a possibly deflated Patriots’ team?

Take the Points

It’s not an easy pick, not if you’ve seen the Jets in any other game than the one they won and not if you saw the first game between these division rivals. I just think with the bye week, in comparison to the physical and mental toll the Pats took last week, sets up well for the kind of game where having a TD is going to be a good feeling. If Wilson starts faltering, this could get ugly quickly. But maybe the Jets can help elicit some miscues from New England’s rookie quarterback in this one and keep this from getting too out of hand. I like the Jets this week.

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