Jets vs. Dolphins Week 14 Pick: Can NY Cover in Miami?

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 12/8/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 8
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: CBS

NFL Betting Odds

Point spread: NYJ +6/Mia -6
Money line: NYJ +225/Mia -275
Over/under: 45

The Dolphins seek to keep their slim postseason hopes alive while the Jets are probably already thinking about tee times, heading into Sunday afternoon’s AFC East bout down in South Florida.

Miami stumbled at Green Bay last week, putting a dent in their playoff hopes. New York, meanwhile, is playing out the string on a very lost season.

Can the Dolphins cover a short touchdown? Or can the Jets pull an upset?

NFL Betting Odds

This week’s NFL betting market opened Miami at -6 over the Jets, with an O/U of right around 45. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Jets Betting Preview

New York dropped to 1-8 in both SU and ATS over its last nine games after falling at home in Seattle last Sunday, 26-21. The Jets, favored at -1.5, led 21-7 in the second quarter and were looking for more when QB Rodgers got pick-6’d by a defensive lineman. New York finally fell behind for good with five minutes left and came up empty on a last-gasp drive.

That game played very equal all over the stat sheet; the only real difference was that Seahawks pick-6.

The Jets have now been out-gained by five of their last six opponents.

Two games ago, New York blew a 24-16 fourth-quarter lead and lost to Indianapolis 28-27. Three games ago, the Jets got embarrassed out at Arizona 31-6.

At 3-9 overall, New York is probably playing out the last few games of the Aaron Rodgers era.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Miami is trying to bounce back this week after falling in the cold at Green Bay last Thursday night, 30-17. The Dolphins, catching 3.5 points, fell behind 14-0 early, trailed 24-3 at the half, and never really got back into the game.

Miami got out-rushed by the Packers 114-39.

The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Dolphins; a month ago, they beat the Rams out in LA 23-15; then they beat Las Vegas 34-19; then they defeated New England 34-15.

So Miami is now 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS this season with Tagovailoa at QB, averaging 24 PPG.

At 5-7 overall, the Dolphins trail 8-5 Denver by 2.5 games in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings. So while Miami ain’t dead yet they’re on life-support.

By the Numbers

New York ranks 31st in the League in offense this season at 291 YPG and 29th in rushing at 87 YPG. Defensively, the Jets rank 3rd overall, holding opponents to 301 YPG but 20th against the run, allowing 126 YPG.

Miami ranks 19th in offense at 328 YPG, 22nd in rushing at 110 YPG, 7th in defense at 311 YPG, and 9th against the run at 108 YPG.

Jets-Dolphins Recent History

Miami is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over the last eight meetings with the Jets. Last year, the Dolphins swept the two games from New York by scores of 34-13 and 30-0. Neither of those games involved Aaron Rodgers, although how much of a difference he would have made is up for debate.

Common Opponents

These teams have played five common opponents this season: the Titans, Patriots, Bills, Seahawks, and Cardinals. Miami played those foes to 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, and +13 YPG, New York to 2-4 both SU and ATS and +21 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are 95-95 SU and 86-101 ATS this season.

Favorites are 139-56 SU, 103-89 ATS.

Teams that win the time of possession battle this season are 120-74 ATS (62 percent). Miami ranks 6th in the League in TOP at 31:36, New York 24th at 29:01.

Totals Report

• The Over is 6-5 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 41 total points.
• The Under is 7-5 in Dolphins games, which are averaging 42 points. But that per-game average jumps to 47 in games Tagovailoa played QB.
• The overs are 101-93 in the NFL this season.

Touchdown Props

New York TE Conklin, who’s fourth on the team this season with 49 targets, is catching +300 to score a touchdown.

Miami WR Malik Washington, who’s listed as a 1st-stringer this week, is catching +650 to score a TD.

Free NFL Betting Pick

New York is a mess, but one thing occurs to us: six of their nine losses have come by six points or less. Meanwhile, Miami is only a .500 team with Tagovailoa this season. Also, the Dolphins are only averaging 66 YPG rushing their last four times out. Do the Jets have enough to pull the upset here? Sure they do. A victory isn’t out of reach if they use their heads and play with some heart. We’ll take New York, plus the points.