Jets vs. Browns Predictions – TNF Week 17 Pick

The New York Jets come to Ohio for an AFC showdown with the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. Both teams face a difficult short week right after the holidays. But for the Browns, they are rising the crescendo of some success, with their 36-22 win over Houston being their third win in a row, lifting them to 10-5 on the season. The Jets, meanwhile, are showing some signs of life, winning two of three, including a 30-28 win over the Commanders on Sunday. Who should we get behind in this tough little Thursday Night Football spot?

Going Against Cleveland: Why It’s Tough

With their 10-5 mark, the same record they have against the spread, the Browns have really stretched the limits of what is possible this season. Sure, they have all that talent on their defense, with all areas of that “D” featuring big-time production. And with guys like Amari Cooper at wide receiver, there is always that chance for a big game. But to lose the main cog of their offense in Nick Chubb and now have the offense in the hands of a previously forgotten-man in Joe Flacco and to be winning and being on the verge of earning a wild card playoff spot is hard to disregard. And with all they have managed to overcome, you have to give a nod to their coaching, heart, and the inner-resource that was necessary for them to somehow thrive this season.

It’s not easy to take the Jets in this spot. There is a point-allowance, the notion that Cleveland is maybe due to sag in the face of a better Jets’ defense, and the fact that the Jets are still playing hard and not getting terrible results. Still, other than a time or two, the Jets have relied on a specific set of conditions in order to succeed and the common thread is taking on a bad team or at least one that is at a crisis-point the week they play the Jets. Still, it’s not always as easy as it looks.

The Case for the Jets

They’re a well-coached team with some good things going for them. Despite an offense that usually puts a lot of pressure on the “D” to do the heavy lifting, the Jets’ defense is still a hurdle for opposing offenses to overcome. You see a team with guys like Trevor Siemian or maligned Zach Wilson at starting quarterback and the mind makes the leap that this will be easy pickings. And against-the-spread, sometimes that has been the case this season. But we see talented Breece Hall coming off one of his biggest games on the ground and through the air. Garrett Wilson is a real weapon at receiver. And sometimes, it’s enough with a good defense to keep them in games.

After losing back-to-back games to the Broncos and Rams, we saw the Browns beat a depreciated Jaguars team, the Bears, and the Texans last week without CJ Stroud. And not that they’re up against it this week with the 6-9 Jets, but could a better defense shine a brighter light on Joe Flacco’s viability as a starting QB in 2023? Could the talent of an apparently dialed-in Breece Hall give this Cleveland “D” something extra to think about? Will the short week bother an aging Flacco? Are they overlooking the Jets at home?

Matchup Issues for the Jets

We will need to see leading up to game-time who will start for the Jets at quarterback. With Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, it’s not like they’re without hope. But a Cleveland home defense can be a heck of a force. A Jets’ O-line that hasn’t always been great at repelling the pass-rush will be facing Myles Garrett and a big rush in Cleveland on Thursday. Both Siemian and Wilson are dealing with injuries; Wilson trying to bounce back from a concussion, and Siemian is dealing with an elbow. Neither of them even in optimal condition would be in a good spot this week with the defense they are facing. And the Jets’ “D” didn’t look that wonderful late last Sunday, blowing a 20-point lead and having to hang on for dear life against a Jacoby Brissett-led Commanders’ squad.

The Jets carry with them a certain level of moxie. To even be at 6-9 with zero luck, a slew of personnel issues, and after starting four different quarterbacks this season isn’t so bad perhaps. They’re out there still trying hard for head coach Robert Saleh and while things didn’t go according to plan in what was supposed to be a transformative season for the Jets, you sense they are at least trying to square things away for what could be a big season next year with things better falling into place. But with this offense, they need certain conditions to thrive and this would appear to be one of the worst ones. And we’ll see if a “D” that has carried this Jets’ team all season isn’t maybe starting to fray at the edges a little bit.

Take the Home Favorite

Again, Joe Flacco is not infallible and this Jets’ defense can still be opportunistic. We’ll see if the Browns can continue being a team on the move on offense with a tougher assignment on defense on the short week at home on Thursday. It’s just hard to have a rosy outlook on the Jets’ offense this week and I think they’ll hit a bit of a wall in Cleveland, with the Browns doing enough to get the win and cover. I’ll take Cleveland in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Cleveland Browns minus 7 points.