Jaguars vs. Texans: NFL Week 4 Free Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Houston Texans (2-1, 0-2-1), 9/29/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 29

Where: NRG Stadium

TV: CBS

Point Spread: Jack +7/Hous -7 (Bet your picks at -105 instead of -110 at BAS Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Jack +250/Hous -310

Over/Under: 45

Two teams looking to bounce back after bad losses last week meet when the Texans host the Jaguars for an AFC South bout on Sunday afternoon.

The Texans are coming off a bad loss at Minnesota last week while Jacksonville is coming off a bad loss at New England. But while Houston’s loss was its first of the season Jacksonville owns nothing but defeats.

How might this divisional battle play out?

NFL Betting Line

The NFL Week 4 betting market opened Houston at -4.5 for Sunday, with an O/U of right around 45. Early betting action then steamed the Texans to -7.

Jaguars Betting Preview

 
Jacksonville is 0-3 on the season after getting bombed at Buffalo Monday night, 47-10. The Jaguars allowed touchdowns the first five times their defense hit the field, trailed 34-3 at the half, and offered little challenge from there. Jacksonville also totally whiffed ATS at +4.5.
 
The Jags got out-gained by the Bills 388-239.
 
On the prop board Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence managed only 188 passing yards, which played under his yardage O/U of 225.5. But RB Travis Ettienne, thanks to some garbage-time yardage, ended up with 68 rushing yards, which played over his total of 49.5.
 
Jacksonville opened this season three weeks ago with a 20-17 loss at Miami. The Jaguars led that game 17-7 well into the third quarter before eventually losing on a Dolphins field goal at the buzzer. Jacksonville then lost at home to Cleveland 18-13 even though they out-gained the Browns 323-297.
 
Stretching back into last season Jacksonville is 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS over its last nine games.
 
The Jaguars went off this season playing against a wins O/U of 8.5. So reaching that over looks like a tall task for the Jags from here on out.

Texans Betting Preview

 
Meanwhile Houston is 2-1 after getting bombed at Minnesota Sunday 34-7. The Texans, favored by one point on the road, trailed 14-0 at halftime, then gave up the first seven points of the second half and mounted little challenge from there in a suprisingly poor performance.
 
Houston got out-rushed by the Vikings 118-38 and lost the turnover battle 2-0, creating a -14 points differential.
 
On the prop board Texans quarterback CJ Stroud managed only 215 passing yards, which played under his total of 262.5.
 
The Texans opened this season with a 29-27 win at Indianapolis, then beat Chicago 19-13.
 
The Texans are playing against a wins O/U this season of 9.5. But after winning a bunch of close games last season we thought Houston might have trouble getting to 10 wins this season.
 
On the injury front the Texans list RB Joe Mixon, who missed last week’s game, and WR Tank Dell as questionable for Sunday.

Jaguars-Texans Recent History

Houston beat Jacksonville nine times in a row from 2018 into 2023 but the Jags are 2-1 SU and ATS over the last three meetings. Last season, these teams split their two meetings, each winning on the other’s home field.

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are just 23-24 SU and 20-26 ATS this season.

Favorites are 29-19 SU, 22-25 ATS this season.

Lawrence is 20-33 as an NFL starter.

Stroud is 11-7 as an NFL starter.

Teams that out-rush their opponents are 34-14 SU, 31-16 ATS this season.

Totals Report

• Unders are 2-1 in Jags games this season, averaging 42 points.
•  Unders are 2-1 in Texans games, averaging 43 points.
•  The totals split 1-1 when these teams met last season, the games averaging 50 points.
•  Unders are 27-20 in the NFL this season.

Prop Bets

Jacksonville WR Gabe Davis, third on the team with 16 targets but without a touchdown, is catching +325 to score one TD, +2600 to score two.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Houston lost badly at Minnesota last week. Was that an anomaly? Or might the Texans be a bit too highly regarded? Meanwhile, Jacksonville stunk Monday night at Buffalo. Are the Jags really that bad? Our pick on this game basically comes down to the doubts we still harbor about Houston and our belief Jacksonville, which had a chance to win each of its first two games, isn’t as bad as the press they’re getting. Plus, our guess is the Jags will win the ground battle on Sunday, which is a good way to cover a spread. We’ll take Jacksonville, the divisional dog, plus the points.

Betting Tip: Do yourself a favor and learn about reduced juice!