Jaguars at Lions Betting Analysis & Point Spread Prediction

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Detroit Lions (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 17
Where: Ford Field
TV: CBS

Point Spread: Jacksonville +13 / Detroit -13
Money line: Jacksonville +550 / Detroit -800
Over/under: 47

The Detroit Lions continue their quest for the top seed in the NFC when they host the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon at Ford Field.

Detroit is considered by many to be the best team in the league, possibly even surpassing unbeaten Kansas City. Meanwhile, Jacksonville, perhaps without its starting quarterback, is navigating a difficult season.

While the Lions are likely to win this game, the question remains—can they cover the two-touchdown spread?

NFL Betting Odds

The NFL Week 11 betting market opened with Detroit at -12.5 for Sunday’s game, with an over/under near 48. Early betting action moved that spread to -13.

So far this season, double-digit favorites are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread, winning by an average margin of 37-14.

Jaguars Betting Preview

Jacksonville enters off its third straight close loss, a 12-7 home defeat to Minnesota last Sunday. With Mac Jones starting in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars managed little on offense. Despite three turnovers by Minnesota’s QB Darnold, Jacksonville held a 7-6 lead deep into the fourth quarter before a pair of Minnesota field goals and a Jones interception sealed the outcome.

However, Jacksonville managed to cover as a 7-point home underdog.

The Jaguars were out-gained by Minnesota 402-143, out-rushed 169-56, and lost the time-of-possession battle by a 42:18 split. Jacksonville has been out-gained and out-rushed in each of its last three games, though it has covered four straight times against the spread (ATS).

Lions Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Detroit rides a seven-game winning streak into Sunday after overcoming an early deficit to edge out Houston 26-23 on Sunday night. The Lions trailed 23-7 at the half before scoring 19 unanswered points, including a field goal at the buzzer to claim victory.

Despite quarterback Jared Goff’s five interceptions, Detroit out-gained Houston 345-248. Detroit, at 8-1, holds the best record in the NFC but is only a game ahead of the Eagles and Vikings. The Lions are competing for top seeding, making each game critical as they approach the season’s end.

These teams last met two seasons ago in a game that saw Detroit claim a 40-14 home victory, with Goff and Lawrence as the opposing quarterbacks.

Common Opponents

Detroit and Jacksonville have played three common opponents this season: the Vikings, Packers, and Texans. Detroit went 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-1 ATS, averaging -15 yards per game (YPG), while Jacksonville went 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS, averaging -138 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are 75-72 SU and 65-80 ATS this season. Favorites are 105-47 SU and 78-72 ATS.

Totals Report

Overs are 6-4 in Jaguars games this season, which average 47 total points. In Lions games, totals are split 4-4, with games averaging 51 points.

Props Board

• Jacksonville TE Evan Engram, third on the team in targets this season with 42 but with just one touchdown, is lined at +325 to score one TD.
• Any team to score 40+ points is lined at +465.
• The “first score” touchdown/field goal ratio this season stands at 91/60.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Detroit is favored to win, but the final margin remains a question. While the Lions have eight wins this season, only two victories have come by more than 13 points. Jacksonville’s eight losses include only two by more than 13 points, with six losses by one score or less. Given Detroit’s draining game against Houston last week, it’s possible the Lions may not bring their best on Sunday. Thirteen points is a significant spread in the NFL, so we’re backing Jacksonville to cover.