Jags vs. Titans Week 18 Prediction: Tough Call Backing Jax

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (5-11 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)

The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans on Sunday in key week 18 AFC South division action from Nashville. The Titans lost their third in a row on Sunday to the Texans, 26-3, as their season has bottomed out with them sitting at 5-11 with two wins in their last nine games. The Jaguars, meanwhile, bounced back from a rough 4-game losing streak last week with a dominant 28-0 win over the Panthers as they look to make a push into the postseason. Can the Jags get it done on the road this week, or can the Titans play the role of spoiler on their division rivals?

Playoff Ramifications

The Titans await the finish line of what has truly been a crummy season, with some potential draft ramifications that are too murky to meaningfully parse through at this point. For the Jaguars, the agenda is far more critical—win, and they’re in the playoffs. It’s not a win-and-in situation purely for the Jaguars, with some other scenarios in the AFC potentially shaking out that they would get in even with a loss. But if they win, they are AFC South divisional champions, and that’s the far more desired route than to lose, and hope things shake out so they can creep in as a fortuitous wild-card entrant.

The Pros and Cons of Jacksonville Heading into This Spot

A lot shakes out to make it so that it’s hard not to forecast a win for the Jags in this spot. Tennessee is coming off a 3-point performance, and while scrappy in certain spots in the second half of the season, they haven’t found much success as of late. But last week was really the first decent development for the Jaguars, and it coming against the Panthers makes it not so special, perhaps. Whereas we saw a Jaguars team thrive late last season, we’re seeing one this season trying to just keep it together to get into the playoffs after looking like a cinch to make the postseason a handful of weeks ago.

Injuries have played a role in the Jaguars falling short in the final third of the season, with Trevor Lawrence banged up recently and missing last week’s game. But in any event, they’re not hitting this time in the season with the same crescendo they did last season. You would tend to figure a gutty guy who rarely misses games like Lawrence will rise to the occasion of a final-week scenario like this. But if Lawrence is out there looking like Ollie Lee, it’s hard to win games on the road in the NFL against divisional opposition, even when the other side of the bet is a far from appetizing one in the Titans. Needless to say, Lawrence’s status bears watching in the days leading up to this game.

Granted, the Jags already trounced the Titans this season, beating them at home, 34-14, on November 19. Calvin Ridley had a big game for the Jaguars through the air with two scores. Tennessee was flat on offense once again. But this is when the Jaguars were 7-3, cruising along and looking like a nice little darkhorse contender. Since then, they’re 2-4. On one hand, maybe they’re being cagey with Lawrence and figured they could beat the Panthers last week without him, making him a go for this weekend. Or maybe his shoulder is really that bad, so who knows? It’s another shadow of doubt surrounding a team that seems likely to win this week, but their recent form and the Lawrence deal makes things a little shaky. It was good to see RB Travis Etienne deliver last Sunday, though, as they needed someone to start putting forth big games again.

What to Expect from Tennessee This Week?

With the Jaguars, a dicey proposition, where the Titans are in terms of spirit, becomes a big consideration. Morale-wise, there seems to be some dissent, with Derrick Henry palpably unhappy about his situation. QB Will Levis left the last game with a foot injury. Will he be ready, or do they go with Ryan Tannehill, who played a lot last week without getting his team into the end zone? Their main aerial weapon is a vet in DeAndre Hopkins, who is also likely feeling demoralized by this point. Do they mix things up personnel-wise, as we’ve seen teams with nothing to lose do in the final week? Even with all their issues and the wins becoming hard to come by, they had been pretty scrappy the past month or so, beating the Dolphins, taking Houston and Indy to OT, and losing to the Seahawks by a FG. Then, last week, the offense was insufferably bad against the Texans, with a bad offensive line finding new depths of which to descend.

Tennessee is a team with a lot of veterans and I’d expect a professional performance, as guys don’t want to dissuade other teams in the league from wanting them or to alienate the current Titans’ coaching staff. But when one team has an urgent week facing them and the other team is a deflated squad that might say the right things while deep down wanting it to all be over, that can have a way of showing on the field.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

Anyone looking at this as a slam dunk should be forewarned. The Jags are no sure bet at this point, much less laying five. What the reasons or potential excuses are don’t really matter, as they’ve spent recent weeks not really looking the part. I’m still prepared to take the leap of faith in the Jaguars here with their coaching, the quality of Lawrence, and the doable nature of this particular spot. I’m going with Jacksonville this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus 5 points. Bankroll running low? Check out our big list of 100% sportsbook bonuses!