Jags vs. Fish Player Prop Bet

Licking My Chops – a Gazelle with a Limp!

Sunday NFL play:

Evan Engram Over 43′ yards, -117

Having been an odds maker myself while running a Vegas sportsbook I’m pretty good at spotting a weak line, or as I call it – the gazelle with a limp. I saw one this week and I pounced on it like a lion.
Or Jaguar, I should say.

Since escaping the hell hole of the New York Giants, tight end Evan Engram has had the best two years of his career (proving once again the NY Giants suck at personnel management; see my article dated August 10th on the Giant’s Regular Season Wins total.)

Of course it doesn’t hurt having Doug Pederson as your head coach. Tight ends play a big part in Peterson’s offensive game plans.
In 2018, while coaching the Eagles, Pederson’s tight end Zach Ertz set the NFL season record for most receptions by tight end with 116.

When you think of the top tight ends in the NFL your mind automatically goes to Kelce, Kittle, and Andrews, but which tight end led the NFL in receptions in 2023?
It was none of the above.
It was Evan Engram.

Last season Engram averaged 4.2 receptions per game. Let’s look at what he achieved with those numbers in relation to this week’s total of 43′.

He surpassed 43′ yards in 12 of 17 games, 70%.

His average yards per game was 56′.

Once he and quarterback Trevor Lawrence found their rhythm, Engram closed the season on a tear. Here’s his yards per game over the last seven games of the season:
79, 60, 95, 28, 95, 82, 49.
All but one of them easily exceeded this week’s total. And no shame in that game – it came against the NFL’s number one defense, the Baltimore Ravens.

Again, after he and Lawrence found their rhythm, Evan saw an increase in targets. Over the last six games of the year he averaged 8.3 targets per game – more than DOUBLE his overall season average.
And I expect that this season the two of them will pick up right where they left off last year.

Another factor going into my handicap of this game is the changes in the Jaguar’s wide receiver group. Only ONE starter remains from last year, Christian Kirk.
I expect this will have Lawrence relying on his familiar tight end for a few additional targets until he finds a rhythm with his new wide receivers.

I’m also liking the fact that this week’s opponent, the Miami Dolphins, gave up the 7th most catches to tight ends last season.

Yup, that gazelle is definitely limping.
It’s dinner time!

It also doesn’t hurt that the game has the highest total on the board this week at 49′, which means we should see a lot of production from the offenses.
And I expect Engram will see more than his usual share of targets and gain more than his usual number of yards.

I’m hoping for Miami to be leading on the scoreboard buy a TD or more entering the fourth quarter, putting Lawrence in a pass heavy situation as he plays catch up.
There’s still a couple shops offering 43′ but like I said it’s a bad number and it’s getting hit on the Over. If you have to lay one or two more yards don’t worry about playing 44 or 45, I see this one as landing north of 55.

****

In my column dated August 8th I gave out an early buy notice on the Denver Broncos, based on a play that was 2-13 over the past 6 years, an 85% Fade.
I only bought a half unit because I wasn’t sure which way the line would move, it was all based on Geno Smith’s availability. He’s available and starting, and the common number is now -6.
I doubt it will get to a full TD but there’s a better chance of it going up to -6′ then dropping down to -5′ so no sense buying it today. I’ll buy it Sunday and post the final number I get in the PredictEm forum before kickoff.

I also made a good move on buying Atlanta in the preseason, anticipating it was going to go higher. I got the Falcons at -2′, -107, they’re now at -3 with a price of anywhere from – 115 to -120.

Sundays prop bet:

Engram Over 43′, -117

Open bets placed during the preseason:
Atl -2′, -107
Sea -5′ (half a unit)