Jags vs. Colts Betting Predictions: Free Pick and Analysis for the Season Opener

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS in 2022) at Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1, 6-11), 9/10/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 10

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium

TV: Fox

Point Spread: Jax -3.5/Ind +3.5 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 instead of -110 at Betanysports Sportsbook? 10+ years here and ZERO complaints!)

Total: 43.5

AFC South rivals seemingly headed in opposing directions meet when the Jaguars and Colts open their seasons on Sunday, Sept. 10, in Indianapolis.

The Colts were supposed to win the AFC South last season; instead, they stunk. Jacksonville, on the other hand, wasn’t supposed to contend; instead, it won the division title and a playoff game.

So, the roles are reversed for these two teams heading into this new NFL betting season.

How are we playing this game with our free Jax/Indy pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 1 NFL betting odds opened Jacksonville as a 3.5-point divisional road favorite over Indianapolis, with an over/under of right around 43.5. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Jaguars-Colts NFL Betting Preview

Jacksonville arrived as a playoff contender about a season ahead of schedule last year. The Jaguars only started 2-6 last season, splitting the season series with Indianapolis along the way. But all six of those losses came by one score. The Jags later sat at 4-8 but awoke and won their last five games, topping Tennessee in the season finale to clinch the division. Jacksonville then came back from a 27-0 deficit against San Diego in a wild-card game to win 31-30, then gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs a tough game at Arrowhead in the divisional round before falling 27-20.

Now, the trick for the Jags is to avoid a letdown this season and build upon that success.

Jacksonville ranked 10th in the League in total offense last year at 357 yards per game and 14th in rushing at 125 YPG. The Jaguars then used their top three picks in the draft on that side of the ball. On the other side of the ball, the Jags ranked 24th in total defense, allowing 353 YPG, but 12th against the run at 114 YPG.

After winning nine games last season, Jacksonville is playing against a “Season Team Wins” over/under of 9.5.

The Colts, meanwhile, devolved into one of the biggest disappointments in the League last year. Indianapolis was supposed to ride Jonathan Taylor to a playoff run. Instead, following a 3-2-1 start to the season, the Colts lost 10 of their last 11 games, a total collapse, and fired Coach Reich along the way.

Over the off-season, Indianapolis brought in former Philadelphia OC Shane Steichen as its new HC. The Eagles put up some good offensive numbers while he was there, although they’ve got some nice talent there, too.

The Colts ranked 27th in total offense last year at 312 YPG, 23rd in rushing at 110 YPG, 15th in total defense at 334 YPG, and 21st against the run at 124 YPG.

Indianapolis used three of its top four draft picks on offense, most notably QB Anthony Richardson out of Florida, who will begin this NFL season as the starter.

But the big news for the Colts right now is Taylor’s holdout; one of the best running backs in the game doesn’t want to play for Indianapolis anymore.

After winning just four games last season, the Colts are playing against a wins O/U this season of 6.5.

Jaguars-Colts Recent History

These division rivals have split their season series each of the last five seasons. Last year, the Jaguars won the first meeting in Jacksonville 24-0, while the Colts won the second meeting in Indianapolis 34-27 on a score in the last half-minute.

Matt Ryan quarterbacked the Colts in both of those games last year. He’s retired now.

NFL Betting Trends

The home team is 11-0 SU, 8-2-1 ATS over the last 11 meetings between these teams.

Totals Report

The unders played 9-8 in Jaguars games last season, which averaged 44 total points.

The unders played 10-7 in Colts games last season, which averaged 42 points.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Normally, we might consider Jacksonville a candidate to regress this season, following its big jump last season. And that might happen yet; health/injuries and good luck/bad breaks have a way of balancing out over the course of two or three seasons. But Indianapolis is a mess, with another new head coach, a rookie starting at QB, and without its disgruntled top offensive weapon. Also, the Jags came within 20 seconds of sweeping the Colts last season. We’re betting on Jacksonville in Week 1.

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