Jags vs. Bucs Pick: Bet this team in Sunshine State Battle

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 9-5), 12/24/23

When: 4:05 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 24

Where: Raymond James Stadium

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point spread: Jax +1.5/TB -1.5
Total: 43.5

Bet the game for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook!

Division leaders meet when the surging Buccaneers host the slumping Jaguars Sunday afternoon in Tampa. The Bucs rode a hot Baker Mayfield to a third straight victory last week in Green Bay. The Jags, on the other hand, are saddled with a three-game losing skid.

Can Tampa keep the good times rolling? Can Jacksonville snap out of its funk? And who do we like for our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 16 NFL betting market opened Tampa Bay at -1.5 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 43.5. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Jags-Buccaneers Betting Preview

Jacksonville lugs a three-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at home to Baltimore last Sunday 23-7. The Jags only trailed that game 10-7 through three quarters but faded from there and came up short ATS as four-point home dogs.

Jacksonville got out-gained by the Ravens 396-333, gave up 251 yards on the ground and squandered several scoring opportunities.

The Jags have now been out-gained by each of their last three opponents and out-rushed by their last four foes.

Two weeks ago Jacksonville fell down 14-0 early and lost to Cleveland 31-27. Three weeks ago the Jaguars fell to Cincinnati 34-31 in overtime.

At 8-5 overall the Jags, who once held a big lead in the AFC South, are now tied for first place with Indianapolis and Houston. Jacksonville owns the tie-breaker on the Colts and Texans and would be the No. 4 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. But it’s definitely trending in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay rides a three-game winning streak into Sunday after beating defenseless Green Bay at Lambeau last Sunday 34-20. The Buccaneers, getting 3.5 points, led 13-10 at the half, then hit paydirt on each of their first three possessions of the second half to pull away.

Tampa racked up 452 yards of offense, as QB Baker Mayfield posted a perfect passing rating. However, Bucs fans shouldn’t read too much into that, considering that Packers’ defense stinks.

Two weeks ago, Tampa Bay scored with 30 seconds left to beat Atlanta 29-25. Three weeks ago, the Buccaneers beat Carolina 21-18.

At 7-7 overall, Tampa is tied for the lead in the NFC with New Orleans. But the Bucs also own a tie-breaker that gives them first place, for the moment. If the playoffs started today, Tampa Bay would be the No. 4 seed in the NFC.

These teams last met four seasons ago, a 28-11 Buccaneers victory. Jameis Winston quarterbacked Tampa that day against Gardner Minshew for the Jags.

On the injury front the Bucs list three defensive starters as questionable for Sunday; the same goes for Jacksonville lists QB Lawrence, although we expect him to play.

Common Opponents

These teams have played seven common opponents this season: the Falcons, Colts, 49ers, Titans, Texans, Bills, and Saints. Jacksonville played those foes to 7-2 both SU and ATS and +4 yards per game, Tampa Bay to 3-5 SU, 6-2 ATS but -56 YPG.

Totals Report

• The totals are split 7-7 in Jaguars games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.
• The Unders are 8-6 in Buccaneers games this season, which are averaging 42 points.
• The Unders are 125-99 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Tampa and Mayfield are coming off a perfect game last week against Green Bay but that Packers defense is bad news. And the Bucs’ other two recent victims, Carolina and Atlanta, ain’t great at winning games, either. We consider Tampa a good candidate for a letdown this week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s three recent losses came against the Bengals, Browns and Ravens – three pretty good teams. And last week’s game should have played closer, considering the Jags botched points away. We consider Jacksonville a good candidate to rebound this week. Also, the Jaguars own the better performance against common opponents. It’s not easy betting on a team that’s lost three in a row against a team that’s won three straight but we’re betting the Jaguars Sunday.

Be sure to check out our free college bowl game picks!