Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-6 SU,
1-5 ATS), Week 8 NFL, 4:05 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 1, 2009, LP Field,
Nashville, Tenn., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
The winless Tennessee Titans will try and earn back some respect on
what is already a lost season this Sunday when they host the
Jacksonville Jaguars in an afternoon tilt at LP Field in Nashville.
Both teams spent their bye week last week licking their wounds and
pouring over the game tape to try and figure out what is going on
with the season.
For the Titans, it was perhaps the longest two weeks of their lives because the last time they stepped between the lines they got their
asses handed to them in a 59-0 thrashing at New England.
Add into the brew that head coach Jeff Fisher stoked the flames during
the bye week by wearing a Peyton Manning jersey to a charity event then
got on the mic to say he wanted to feel like a winner. Even team owner
Bud Adams couldnt keep his yap shut, saying that he would like to see backup
quarterback Vince Young get a start over the struggling Kerry Collins
this week. Add it all up and youve got mass chaos in Nashville these days.
In Jacksonville, the Jags are trying to figure out which team is
going to show up week to week, the one that nearly lost at home to
the Rams the week before the bye (a 23-20 OT win) or the one that
went on the road the week before and destroyed the Seahawks, 41-0.
One of the Jaguars three wins this season came against the Titans
already, a 37-17 victory at home back in week three, so they will be
looking for a similar effort this week and not the effort they
displayed last time out in nearly blowing it against the winless Rams.
In a huge surprise to many, oddsmakers actually opened the game with
the winless Titans as 3-point favorites at home, even though most
bettors have no clue why or how they can be favored. The betting
public hasnt done anything to make the number move at all either, as
most sportsbooks still list the Titans as 3-point favorites. But
thats likely more of a no-confidence vote toward the Jekyll-and-Hyde
Jaguars then it is faith in the Titans to cover the point spread.
The over/under total opened at 43.5 and has steadily climbed during
early betting up to its current number of 44.5. There are even a few
offshore sportsbooks offering a 45 total, so shop for the number you
want.
Offensively this game could turn into another 50-point plus shootout,
but not because either team is potent on offense. No, this game
features two pathetic defenses that just arent good enough week to
week to get the job done.
The Titans defense is a shell of its former self. What once was a great
secondary is now the leagues worst, yes, 32nd-ranked unit allowing 310.7
yards per game. Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard
threw for 305 yards against them a few weeks ago, so even with the Jags
no-name receiving core they still have enough to burn the Titans secondary.
However, both corners Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper are listed as questionable
this week so maybe help is on the way.
The Titans defense is also dead last in points allowed with a 33-
points per game average.
Jacksonvilles defense isnt quite that bad, but the unit is only
ranked 23rd overall (360.8 ypg) and they too give up major chunks of
yards through the air with the 31st-ranked pass defense at 262 yards
per game. The Jags best corner, Rashean Mathis, broke his finger in
practice this week and is listed as doubtful, so the weak unit will
likely be even weaken come Sunday.
Tennessees strength on offense is their running game with Chris
Johnson and LenDale White, but the last time these two played the
Jags had a 27-3 lead at half and the two-headed monster never got a
chance to get the rock. If the Titans have any chance the MUST keep
the ball and keep the clock rolling with a steady diet of Johnson and
White.
The Jaguars will likely throw the ball to set up the running game of
Maurice Jones-Drew this week, because even though the Titans defense
is bad they still do a solid job of stopping the run (95 ypg 9th).
Tennessee swept the season series last year en route to their 13-3
season, so the Jaguars will be looking to complete the same task this
season on Sunday. All told, the head-to-head series between this two
is even with both teams at 5-5 SU over the past 10 games dating back
to 2004.
Jacksonville won at LP Field in 2007, 28-13, and in 2005, 31-28, so
theres no real homefield advantage to speak of in this series
really. That fact is proven further when you see that the Titans are
2-5 ATS in their last seven games at LP Field.
The Titans hold a slight 6-4 ATS edge in the series, including
covering in four of the last six games. The over bet also holds a
slight 6-4 edge in the series as well over the same 10-game span.
The underdog seems to enjoy this matchup since they are 5-1 ATS in
the last six meeting, including earlier this year when the Jags were
3-point dogs at home. Now theyre 3-point dogs on the road, so guess
where most of the money will be on Sunday.
Badgers Pick: This game is a bettors nightmare. Jacksonville just
doesnt cover (4-9 ATS in their last 13 games), and what in the hell
has happened to the Titans? If you have to wager on this one make it
small one on the over of 44.5 in hopes that the two horrible defenses
fail to show up again.
