Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: CBS
By: Keith Franks, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: JAX +3 / IND -3
Total: 45
Power Rankings: Jacksonville (21) / Indianapolis (24)

Takeaways From Week 9
The Jaguars are nominees for the disappointment team of 2018 after they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game last season to come up short against the New England Patriots in Foxboro. At the moment, the Jags are riding a nasty four-game losing streak where they have also failed to cover over this span. Most recently, the Jags were on the losing end of a 24-18 loss in London, England at the hands of the defending Super Bowl Champions the Philadelphia Eagles. The Jags were a 3.5-point dog similarly priced to where they are this week.

Unlike their divisional counterparts, the Colts have been riding a hot-hand as they have won their last two and covered while doing so. However, these results were attained against two of the weakest teams in the AFC in Buffalo and Oakland. Most recently, Indianapolis defeated the Raiders 42-28 in The Black Hole last Sunday.

How the Public is Betting the Jacksonville-Indianapolis Game
At the moment, 53% of the consensus like the Jaguars here as a marginal underdog. A line move of half of a point downward from the opening figure of -3.5 reflects this current trend. At the moment the Colts are offered at odds of evens (not with the usual vig of -110) at the present number of -3.

The Historicals
Jacksonville has dominated this series as of late as they have won four of the last five meetings between these two parties. The last collision between the two combatants resulted in the Jags swarming the Colts 30-10. However, the Colts did not have Andrew Luck tossing the pigskin in the aforementioned game.

Injury Concerns
At one point this week, there was concern that Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles may be unavailable but he has since been expected to play Sunday as he sports a Probable tag. The headline is the return of Jaguar workhorse running back Leonard Fournette who returns from a hamstring injury.

When Indianapolis Has the Ball
Normally, Indianapolis’s offense is the Andrew Luck Show. However, the Colts have been able to establish balance in both rushing and throwing the football. As a whole, the Colts average 381.5 yards of offense per game (10th in the NFL) while averaging 28.9 points per game (6th in the league). Luck has been brilliant in his last two outings as he has tossed seven touchdowns with no interceptions while completing 72.4% of his passes. The bad news is he is up against the passing defense in the NFL who give up just 190 yards through the air per game.

When Jacksonville Has the Ball
Offense is not normally Jacksonville’s forte. They are like many defensive teams, they like to run the ball and keep their defense fresh. Without Fournette, the Jaguars have had great difficulty in doing so as their rushing attack has only produced 95 yards per game (24th in the NFL) while posting a bottom of the barrel 16.8 points per game (29th in the NFL). The Jaguars defense remains elite but the offense has not done its part to support them in their endeavors. This can change however with Fournette coming back against a Colts defense that gives up 26.6 points per game (25th in the NFL) and 109.9 rushing yards per game (19th overall).

Betting Trends
In the last six meetings between these two clubs, the Jaguars have covered in every contest going 6-0 ATS. For Totals players, the Under is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 contests between Indianapolis and Jacksonville.

Weather Report
Temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid 30’s to lower 40’s but outside environs should be of little concern here. Lucas Oil Stadium features a retractable roof which means the conditions were always be clement and optimal to play.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars +125 (Money Line)
Situational betting is a key part of any handicapper’s approach. This scenario sets up perfectly for Jacksonville takers. The Colts’ stock is high after two wins and easy covers while the Jags’ market value is through the floor with respect to their recent losing streak both outright and against the spread. However, given the variables the Jaguars are in position to put together a complete performance on both sides of the football and win emphatically. With Leonard Fournette back in the fold, Jacksonville will be able to give its defense the rest it needs as they won’t be stuck out on the field all game long risking exposure. As a result of this, the Jaguars will be all over the Colts offense. Jacksonville won’t also be one-dimensional which changes the dynamics of the Jags offense and will result likely in an uptick in production and scoring. However, Indy won’t be quick to answer as they are not playing Oakland or Buffalo this week. Indianapolis has more or less been feasting on cupcakes for the last two weeks and now they have to take a big step up in competition. We have to like the prospect of taking back the Jags as a dog here and getting them with a profitable tag outright in this spot.