Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns Free Pick ATS 12/10/23

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (7-5, 7-5), 12/10/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 10

Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point spread: Jack +3/Cle -3
Money line: Jack +145/Cle -175
Total: 30.5

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The Jaguars and Browns are both experiencing severe uncertainty about their quarterback position, heading into Sunday afternoon’s battle between AFC playoff contenders in Cleveland.

Trevor Lawrence left Jacksonville’s game Monday night with a bad ankle injury, while the Browns started 38-year-old Joe Flacco last Sunday. As of midweek, neither team was telling anybody who would start at QB this Sunday, and that was probably because they didn’t know.

So, how are we betting this game with our free NFL pick?

Jaguars Betting Preview

Jacksonville just suffered a double hit Monday night; not only did they lose at home in overtime to Cincinnati 34-31, but QB Lawrence suffered a bad leg injury and left the game.

The Jaguars, favored by 10 points against a Bengals team playing without QB Joe Burrow, led by seven three different times but could never add to their leads. In OT, a penalty erased a long Jacksonville gain and forced a punt, which Cincinnati turned into the game-winning field goal.

The Jags got gouged for 491 yards of Cincinnati offense Monday night, including 156 on the ground. So Jacksonville’s now been out-rushed by three of its last four opponents.

The Jaguars started 1-2 this season, then won five games in a row to grab the lead in the AFC South. Jacksonville then lost badly to San Francisco, although that’s not necessarily a crime, beat Tennessee and Houston, then lost to the Bengals.

At 8-4 overall, the Jags are right in the middle of the AFC playoff picture; they only trail 9-3 Miami by one game in the battle for the best record in the conference, but they also only lead the 7-5 Colts and Texans by one game in the AFC South divisional race.

Not only is Jacksonville uncertain whether Lawrence can play Sunday, but they’ll be without leading receiver Christian Kirk, who left Monday’s game with an abdominal injury.

Browns Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Cleveland lugs a two-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at the Rams last Sunday 36-19. But that game was a lot closer than that final score might indicate. The Browns, with Flacco playing well, only trailed 20-19 late into the fourth quarter. But the veteran QB’s only real mistake of the day, a somewhat puzzling interception, opened a floodgate, as Cleveland gave up two touchdowns and a safety over the last four minutes to piss away the cover at +3.5.

The Browns got beat all over the stat sheet by the Rams, but not by much. Cleveland financial backers just wish Flacco hadn’t thrown that late pick.

Two weeks ago, with back-ups Thompson-Robinson and Walker doing the QB’ing, the Browns only trailed at Denver 14-12 late into the third quarter but faded and lost 29-12.

Cleveland was looking pretty good a few weeks ago with Deshaun Watson at QB helping spark a 5-1 run. But losses the last two weeks are creating questions.

At 7-5 overall, Cleveland is tied with three other teams for the 5-6-7-8 spots in the AFC playoff standings.

These two teams last met three seasons ago, a 27-25 Browns win in Jacksonville. Baker Mayfield quarterbacked Cleveland that day against Mike Glennon for the Jags.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played five common opponents this season: the Bengals, Titans, Steelers, 49ers, and Colts. Cleveland played those foes to 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, and +98 yards per game, Jacksonville to 4-2 SU and ATS but -20 YPG.

Totals Report

• The totals are split 6-6 in Jaguars games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.
• The Overs are 6-5-1 in Browns games, which are averaging 42 points.
• The Overs played 9-4 in the NFL last week, but on the season, the Unders are 109-84.

Free NFL Betting Pick

If Lawrence can’t go for Jacksonville, it will be CJ Beathard (2-10 as an NFL starter) at quarterback, and even he’s listed as questionable with a sore shoulder. Actually, both teams are banged-up on offense. Regardless, we give Cleveland the edge with the better running game and the better defense, plus they own the better performance against common opponents. We’re betting on the Browns Sunday, minus the points.