Indianapolis Colts(2-2SU,2-2ATS) vs.New York Jets(2-3SU, 3-2ATS)
NFL Week6
Date/Time:October14th, 1:00PM EST
Where:MetLifeStadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV:CBS
Point Spread: IND+3.5/NYJ-3.5
Over/Under Total:43
By Jeff Hochman, Pro Football Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
The New York Jets will try to right the ship and stop its two-game losing skid. Don’t forget the Jets were 2-1 after defeating the Dolphins 23-20on September 23rd, but it’s been all down hillfrom there. Last Monday night, the Jets had what Steve Young called, “a cute little effort” and covered the big spread. They had multiple chances to goaheador win, but the Jets had majorproblems holding on to the ball. The Jets are a pathetic 1-4 ITS (in the stats) this season. The Colts had a big upset win last week against the Packers as 7-point home dogs. Indy came back down 21-3, thanks in part to Andrew Luck, who looks like the real deal to me. The Colts out-gained the Packers by 108 yards and are now 2-2 ATS this season. Indy’s confidence has to be sky-high right now
The Jets will need to gettheirpassing attack going if they want to win this game. Mark Sanchez is ranked 31st in passing with aQBRof just 66.6. The Colts are putting up 286 passing yards per game, and without DarrelleRevisIndianapolis should beableto pass on this Jets’defense. When the Colts are in three or four receiver sets Andrew Luck’s quarterback rating jumps to 97. His overall QBR is 80.4 and his 7.12 yards per attemptranksin the Top 15. So what the Jets will most likely do is blitz a little more this week. When Andrew Luck feels pressure he has donea good job of using his feet. I have tobelievewhen the Jets front office watches this game they will say to themselves, “I wish we had Luck!”
Speaking of Luck, he’s on pace for 4,832 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. You have to wonder if the young Colts will be up for this game after the emotional comeback win last week. They do bring in the better offense and defense in this game. Special teams has been a problem for theColts and this game could be decided by some sort offlukeyplay like that. The Jets Special Teams has been solid so far this season.The Colts and Luck are stillwin-lesson the road and avictory here would show a lot of people theycould be a playoff contender. A win here could alsomean a long winning streak.After this contest the Coltsnext four games areagainstteams with a combined 4-16 record so far this year. The Jets will come into this game off a short week and their season is hanging by a thread. This is a must win game for the Jets and here’s why.A loss means another 3-game losing streak and moreuncertaintysurrounding Mark Sanchez. A win means they guaranteethemselvesof being no worse than one game back of the New England Patriots for first place.
The Jets will need to run the ballbecauseif Luck passes 40 or more times it will be tough to keep up. The problem is that New York is averaging just 83rushingyards per game. The Colts are allowing 135.8 on the ground so maybe this will be a breakout rushing performance for the Jets.The huge edge for the Colts in this game will be at the QB position. In every significant metric, Luck’s play trumps that of Sanchez. Indy has played some tough pass-rushing defenses and Luck has not missed a beat in any of those games. The Jets are having trouble getting pressure on opposingQB’s, so Luck could be in for a huge day.
On 1/8/11, the Jets defeat the Colts 17-16 as 1-point road underdogs. Mark Sanchez could not pick apart a banged up Colts’ defense passing for just 189 yards,but the running game gained 169 yards in the 1-point win. Peyton Manning was 18-for-26 for 225 yards andone touchdown. Now it will be Luck’s turn againstthe fly boys.
The Colts are 6-1 ATS last seven games onFieldTurf. The Colts are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games in week 6. The Colts are 0-12 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Jets are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday Night football game. The Over is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:Indianapolis Colts +3.5 & Over 43. Both defenses are not that physical and the offenses should be very comfortable in this game, I like the Colts and the Over in a high-scoring close game.
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