Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets Pick

Indianapolis Colts (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. New York Jets (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date/Time: Sunday, October 14th, 2018 –1:00 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
TV: CBS
By: Keith Franks, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Spread: Indianapolis +2.5 / New York -2.5
Over/Under: 45

The Indianapolis Colts and the New York Jets will square off in an AFC conference collision at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday, October 14th, 2018. Kick-off is slotted for 1:00 PM ET and will be aired on CBS for regional audiences. Most betting websites have New York -2.5 (-110) Indianapolis and New York have met six times in the last ten years, Gang Green has won four of those contest. Overall, the Jets are 4-2 ATS in these last six meetings between both sides. Two years ago the Colts came to town and opened a can on the Jets, defeating them 41-10 in the Meadowlands in a virtual pick-em scenario.

Colts Get Smoked On Thursday Night

Indianapolis comes into this game on the heels of a two-game losing streak, capped off by a 38-24 loss in Foxboro against the Jets’ arch rival, New England. The Colts were taking back a double-digit points as a 10.5-point pup and still failed to get the cover. The problem with the Colts has always been the fact that they are literally a one-trick pony. This team is a potential playoff contender with quarterback Andrew Luck under center who is back at the helm after being shelved last year with an injury. The problem though is just that…Luck finds himself often banged up which sets this team on a course to lose often.

Be that as it may, the Colts sole win this year came in the Nation’s Capital when they defeated the Washington Redskins 21-9 in Week Two. Sandwiched in between the Redskins victory and the Patriots defeat, Indianapolis lost two games by a combined margin of a touchdown, including one loss that went to overtime against the Houston Texans.

Jets End The Skid With Authority

The Jets made a splash in 2018 when they won big on Monday Night in Detroit to kick off their campaign. As the season wears on that win looks more and more impressive on paper as the Jets absolutely dominated the Lions in the Motor City. Since that win, the Jets embarked on a three-game skid that included losses to Miami, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. After making a noteworthy impression, confusion and disarray quickly overcame the Jets in-house. However, New York would show glimmers of the team that won big on Monday Night when they would respond with a huge win  Sunday at MetLife Stadium against the Denver Broncos.

The line in that market fluttered back and forth all week but regardless of how it played out, the Jets rolled the Broncos 34-16. The duo of quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Robbie Anderson took center stage as they torched the Broncos secondary on several occasions. With a big win, the Jets are back at home this weekend with a little swagger in their step.

How The Public Is Betting This Game:

The market opened with the Jets laying a field goal to the visitors the Colts and we have seen that line fall by half of a point to reflect what appears to be an early lean on the points. The analytics reveal that presently 78% of the cash has come in on the Colts in this market along with 67% of the consensus overall liking Indy in this spot. These kind of numbers show that the Colts epitomize the term “public dog”. It is more of a frequent occurrence to see Joe Public place his arm around the Over and the Favorite. So far, the opposite has also been true in the Total Market as we have seen the starting number of 46 fall to 45, indicating action on the Under. Despite this, almost all of the cash seems to be on the Over suggesting that perhaps sharp money is making its move on the Under in this contest.

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NFL Pick: Take New York -2.5

The Jets have been a turnover machine. In fact, New York has created 11 turnovers in just five games. When you have the likes of safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye patrolling, interceptions are bound to be plentiful. After all, this is the same Gang Green defense that forced Matthew Stafford to throw four interceptions in MoTown. Furthermore, this a team as a whole that also only allows 21 points per game (8th in the NFL). The Jets reinforces their rugged defense with stout rushing as they are ranked sixth overall in the league in that department. Against a robust Denver front-seven the dynamic duo of Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell combined for 318 yards on the ground. The Jets now walk into this game with a clear blueprint on how to set them both loose. The franchise quarterback having an efficient day is the backbone of Indy’s game and chances are the Jets will find a way to disrupt his flow. Gang Green will do this while also keeping him off the field and limit his opportunities to score through a heavy dose of the run and clock control. These two ingredients are the perfect antidote to mitigate Luck.

The Colts however have no other response for the Jets outside of Andrew Luck having a miraculously good day against this violent Jets defense. The Colts defense is porous at best, averaging 27.6 points per game (27th in the league) and 28th ranked 282.6 passing yards per game surrendered. Situationally, this allows for rookie quarterback Sam Darnold to have a good day at the office and throw a few more touchdowns. After all, he threw three TD’s against Denver’s secondary which in turn is far better compared in terms of quality compared to Indianapolis’. Unlike the Colts, Denver has a true shutdown cornerback in Chris Harris Jr. containing one quarter or half of the passing lanes at any given time. Darnold won’t have as much of a challenge here and this will open the running game down the back stretch, allowing the Jets to rush onward to another impressive win.