Indianapolis Colts (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
NFL Week 14
Date/Time: Sunday, December 13, 1:00pm
Where: EverBank Field Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: IND +1 / JAX -1
Over/Under Total: 46
This Sunday in Jacksonville, Florida, the Indianapolis Colts will head into town to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts come into this game at 6-6 overall and the Jaguars are 4-8 but appear to getting better and better as the season progresses. The 6-6 mark for the Indianapolis Colts has them sitting in the top spot of the AFC South division and Jacksonville is third place in the same division. The Colts are technically tied with the Houston Texans for the division lead and a loss to any team at this point can ruin playoff hopes for Indy. The Colts, still without Andrew Luck, are just trying to stay afloat and get themselves into the playoffs in time for his return. Jacksonville would be more than happy to be that team that ruins the Colts opportunity to play in January.
The line on this game was posted until late Thursday and what was once an even pick game now has the Jacksonville Jaguars as a one point favorite. In my opinion, that is still a pickem game. Against the spread this season, the Colts are 6-6, just like their record while the Jaguars are 6-5-1 against the spread in 2015. As of Friday morning, the majority of the betting action is on the Colts to get the road win over Jacksonville. 58% of the action is riding on Indy while the total points which is posted at 46 is pretty much an even split with 52% thinking the game stays under the total. This is the second meeting between these two teams this season. Back in week four, the Colts took down the Jaguars in Lucas Oil Stadium by a final of 16-13. It appears based on the spread that another close one is expected.
Andrew Luck is still out with an injury but the claims are that he is improving week to week but no time table for his return has been set. The Colts need this win, bad. So far in Lucks absence, Matt Hasselbeck has gone 4-1 and kept Indianapolis alive in the AFC South as well as the AFC playoff picture as a whole. The Houston Texans are starting to win games now and they have made this race very tight and a loss for either team could be catastrophic for their post season hopes. The Colts, from a statistical standpoint, are very average. Indianapolis ranks 16th in the NFL in passing, 27th in the league in rushing, and 26th in scoring defense. In order to go on the road and get a win against a young, desperate team the Colts will need solid play on both sides of the ball. The offense, even without Andrew Luck, should be able to put up some points. Jacksonvilles defense is still the weakness of that franchise and they are allowing nearly 30 points per game and are ranked 30th in that area. If the Colts can get rolling on offense and play solid defense, I could see them winning this game by a touchdown. However, if their offense is stagnant, like it was back in week four, I would not be surprised if they drop to 6-7 overall.
For the better part of 5-10 years, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been the joke of the NFL and have had many high draft picks. In 2015, the Jaguars have improved a little and are making things interesting even in games that they lose. A few weeks back, Jacksonville won back to back games but since that time, they have lost their last two contests. At 4-8, Jacksonville is pretty much dead when it comes to playoff hopes, but they have the talent and the desire to ruin other teams chances, starting with this game against the Colts. In order to get a win at home and put the Colts behind the 8-ball for a playoff spot, it starts with the Jacksonville defense. They cannot let the Colts score in the mid 20s or 30s, they just cant. The Jaguars offense, only averaging 22 cannot get into a shootout, although in the last two weeks, the offense did their job scoring 25 in a loss to the Chargers and then putting up 39 in a three point loss to the Titans. If Blake Bortles and the offense is clicking like this, then the defense needs to help them out. Plain and simple. Play defense and the Jags have a legit shot to win this game.
This game seems like a trap to me. On paper it would appear that the Colts should be a 4-5 point favorite in this game, but the line had it even and now the Jags are the slight favorite. It is almost as if Vegas is begging the world to take the Colts. I am so tempted to do so, but I am playing the absolute fade game here. I am taking the Jacksonville Jaguars to keep the offense rolling and pulling off a win over the first place Colts to make the AFC South even more intense. Jags win this game 23-20.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am taking the Jacksonville Jaguars to win this game. Take the Jags -1
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