Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions Pick ATS 11/1/20

Indianapolis Colts (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Week 8 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 1PM EDT
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: CBS

Point Spread: IND -3/DET +3 (Best Sportsbooks Rated by Category)
Over/Under Total: 50

The Indianapolis Colts come into Ford Field on Sunday for a big crossroads Week 8 battle with the Detroit Lions. It’s a fork in the road moment for both teams. After a narrow win over Cincy, Indianapolis got a bye last week. But with their last cover coming on October 4, they could use a good showing on Sunday. For Detroit, things are looking up after a stirring comeback win over Atlanta last week. With three wins in four games, with a competitive loss to the Saints in that stretch, they are seeing their finest success yet under head coach Matt Patricia. To get to over .500 this week, considering how awful things looked after the first few games, would be a major victory for this organization. Who can cover in the Motor City on Sunday?

Looking at Detroit Differently

On one hand, beating the Jaguars and Falcons alone does not signal a revival. But in beating the Cardinals on the road and hanging in there so well against the Saints, along with those two wins, it’s safe to say Detroit is seeing some things start to click. And even in their first two games, which were horrible losses, they led by double-digits in both those games. Blowing leads is certainly never good, but Detroit has been in all these games. Lost in all the Lions’ failings in recent seasons is the fact that Matthew Stafford has been in fine form more often than not over the last few seasons. He’s playing well. He has a decent collection of ball-catchers, with Kenny Golladay continuing to emerge as a true number-one receiver. TJ Hockenson is an emerging force at tight end. They have a loaded backfield that is finally making a nice impact with Adrian Peterson still productive, and rookie D’Andre Swift developing into a nice playmaker.

While stricken with a stubborn case of mediocrity under Patricia, the Lions “D” is making strides. Giving up 22 to Atlanta isn’t so bad and holding the Jags to 16 the previous week was also a good sign. Things could get tougher this week with a rested Colts offense. But we’ve seen some things start to click, as Patricia has been reunited with a trio of former Patriots contributors who are doing well in Detroit with Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, and Duron Harmon. There are some youngsters in there coming around, namely high draft pick CB Jeff Okudah. Against an Indy offense that often isn’t very explosive, this could be a spot where we again see the Detroit “D” show some resistance.

Indy: Exploring Both Sides of the Coin

Obviously, more can be extracted from this offense with Philip Rivers in there, as opposed to someone like Jacoby Brissett. Through five games, he is near 1600 yards with nearly 70% completions. But a few times this season already, we’ve seen Rivers’ interception-prone ways surfacing, much to the detriment of the team. But there is no questioning that this offense has a lot of potential behind that great line, bolstered by a nice-looking rookie back in Jonathan Taylor. Seven different guys are already in triple-digits receiving, as Rivers has always been good at making the most out of his star players, as well as role guys.

But that’s a little bit of the problem, too. With TY Hilton getting older, the pass-catching crew is more of a cabaret unit without any real standouts or consistent difference-makers. In other words, there are no stars on this offense. The variety that ensues has its own brand of upside, but when watching the Colts, it’s a little strange that they are without any skill guys who will threaten to make All-Pro. And without major contributors and promising receivers like RB Marlon Mack, Parris Campbell, and Michael Pittman, Jr., they are without a big part of what they were supposed to be this season.

The bye came at the right time with Indy, and on defense, they’ve seemed diminished with Darius Leonard out. He is questionable as of press time, but his presence would be major. This defense has really thrived in spots this season. In the first four games, they allowed an average of 14 points per game but have allowed a combined 59 to the Browns and Bengals in their last two. And Leonard being out those two games is perhaps more than coincidental. Which defense surfaces on the field for this game will play a big role in who covers this spread. The defense we’ve seen recently could be easy-pickings on the road against a resurgent Detroit offense.

Intangibles

It’s a tough game to break down with so much contrasting data. It makes you look off-the-grid a little more for possible difference-making insight. Geographically, this isn’t a tough road trip for an Indy team coming off the bye, but it’s still a bit of a foreign out-of-conference spot for the Colts. For whatever it’s worth, momentum can be a factor, and the bottom line is that Indy has ebbed a bit, while Detroit has surged. When long-suffering teams like Detroit latch onto something good, loosening that grip isn’t always easy for the opponent. Then again, Detroit is Detroit. They can blow it late, which isn’t a positive trait when your money is on the line. Their fourth-quarter defense needs to show up. And you wonder how much it would really take to make it, so Detroit looks like the same Detroit we’ve always known. It’s like taking a recent-recovering alcoholic to the nightclub. It’s not going to take a lot to get back to the old guy you always knew.

Take the Points on the Home Dog

Like everyone other than the most rosy-eyed Detroit optimist, betting on Detroit with a close spread against a winning team isn’t the most comfortable feeling. It’s a big step for all of us. And Indy is one of these wide-range teams where putting a finger on where they truly stand is difficult. And a lot of teams that end being really bad by the end of the season will have a 2-3 game window where they looked pretty good, but they weren’t. And while that might be what we’re tapping into here, I sense Detroit as being a decent value this week. I’m taking Detroit.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions plus 3 points. Where are you betting your Week 8 NFL picks? Does your book offer the best live betting platform on the web? Does your bookie give you rebates on ALL your bets, even if they win? Does your book offer fast/hassle free payouts? If not, you should reconsider your options and start wagering at Bovada Sportsbook. They also offer a generous 50% real cash bonus!