Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos: ATS Prediction for Week 15

Indianapolis Colts (6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 15
Date/Time: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: CBS

The Indianapolis Colts come to Mile High for a week 15 AFC showdown with the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Both of these were recipients of a late-season bye last week as they prepare for this final stretch of games. For the Colts, the situation is a bit dire at 6-7, with Houston leading the division at 8-5. Their margin for error is very small, with their 25-24 win over New England before the bye breathing a little life into their cause. The prognosis is rosier for the Broncos, even if their divisional standing is hopeless with the Chiefs at 12-1. Their 41-32 win over Cleveland before the bye was their third win in a row, as Denver is 8-3 since starting at 0-2. Let’s break this game down!

Dangerous Spot for Denver

With the growth of their rookie QB Bo Nix, along with the rise of their passing-game, along with a defense with a high ceiling, Denver is a well-coached team that makes the most out of what it has. It’s not altogether easy describing why they’ve won 8 of their last 11, and while a lot of that could come down to a nice run of opponents in terms of difficulty, it doesn’t explain everything. Still, they’re not invulnerable, and a rested and desperate Colts team should be able to get some business done in this spot.

While getting cold, we’re not quite at the point where the Mile High weather is a big advantage for Denver. While the Broncos getting some extra time leading into this could help them from a health-standpoint, especially on defense, falling prey to the backyard-style of Jameis Winston and the Browns in their last game wasn’t a great look and maybe Anthony Richardson and his weapons can put a dent in this unit. He has looked a little better lately. Against a good defense, it might not be easy to run the ball, and we know Richardson can struggle aerially in a big way. Still, with Richardson running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, along with Michael Pittman and others doing their thing aerially, Denver better has worked out whatever was ailing them before the bye. The Colts will also be looking for WR Josh Downs to return, as we’ll see if the extra time helped him get back on the field.

Denver: A Tough Out Down the Stretch

The Broncos are certainly in a good spot to lock into a good wild-card spot. Still, they have a demanding closing sequence to the season after this game, and this is one where it’d be a good idea to make a point of stowing this one away. The way they looked through the first two weeks, with it looking like Nix was going to be a real long-term project, you’d have gotten long odds saying they were going to go 8-3 in their next 11 games. So one really can’t forecast that after the bye, they’re going to come out flat for this with everything they’ve worked for and with what’s on the table. I’d expect the Broncos to have a little pop when they hit the field Sunday.

Again, it’s not easy to identify what they do great on offense, or at the very least, it doesn’t stand out a ton. That offensive line has been a big part of Nix coming around as the season progresses, actually sometimes showcasing a pretty potent offense on occasion. There are no stars, but whether on the ground or through the air, they have a large collection of varied contributors that keep defenses on their toes, not knowing what or who is coming. We see Nix growing in comfort, able to let it loose aerially while also using his legs to good effect quite often.

One really has to appreciate the level of disruption this Denver defense is capable of unleashing. You have guys like Nik Bonitto, who just came in and became a nuisance to opposing offenses with his pass-rushing and other forms of disruption. They can get turnovers, they can score, and can at times take over a game. This is where a high-quality Indy offensive line can really come in handy. Still, we’ve seen mistakes-galore at times this season from Richardson and this Colts’ offense, something they cannot afford to flirt with this week with the opportunistic Denver defense.

Betting This Game

Denver is tied with one other team for the best record against the spread this season, with ten covers in 13 games. Indianapolis isn’t that far behind, flashing an impressive 8-5 mark ATS. These teams have generally been undervalued by the general betting public, and it’s easy to see why, with each team’s drawbacks being more visible than their assets in large part. Still, Denver being favored by 3.5 doesn’t seem too steep and certainly won’t be a deterrent for those who were inclined to like Denver in this spot.

There seems to be this sense of Denver being a team that relies on defense, gets what they can on offense, and ekes games out. The results have not followed that script. In their last six wins, their margin of victory has been at an average of over 17 points. They’re actually laying it on thick in certain cases. With an offense without any real stars, it’s difficult to perceive them this way. But they are in fact a team that has been winning a lot lately and for the most part, it’s by big margins. So far this season, at least, when they win, they also cover.

Take the Home Favorite

With the Broncos nice and dug in at home and rested after a little time off, I like them to pick up where they left off and take it to the Colts on Sunday. I imagine that, with all the weapons the Colts have and their overall desperation, they won’t put forth a total dud on Sunday. They’re also rested and have an agenda of their own. However, I think at this point in the season, the Broncos might not be up their alley matchup-wise in a lot of areas. I like Denver to win and cover the spread this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos minus 3.5 points.