Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Bet

Indianapolis Colts (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Week 3 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 1PM EDT

Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland

TV: CBS

Point Spread: IND +7.5/BAL -7.5 (Bovada – The best bookie on the web!)

Money Line: Indianapolis +290, Baltimore -380

Over/Under Total: 44

The Indianapolis Colts come into M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday for a week 3 AFC showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. On Sunday, the Ravens continued their strong start to the season, again winning and covering with a 27-24 win over defending conference champion Cincinnati, overcoming a slew of injuries to do so. Indy, meanwhile, went into Houston and registered a 31-20 win over the Texans, also seeing rookie QB Anthony Richardson go down with a concussion before backup-extraordinaire Gardner Minshew stepped in with some nice play to salvage the win. Who can get the upper hand in Baltimore on Sunday?

Injury Concerns

Each team is dealing with injury concerns that could throw a different pallor on this game. Anthony Richardson’s concussion bears watching. He had looked good, running in two TDs, but aerially, he seems pretty challenged, whereas Minshew can really be productive through the air. Losing C Ryan Kelly to a concussion doesn’t help much, either. But Baltimore is already up against it injury-wise. There’s the season-ending injury to Dobbins and injuries throughout their secondary and offensive line. We saw Odell Beckham go down with an ankle injury, and the Ravens are already getting the bad end of the stick on this front.

Matchup Issues for Indy

Whoever it is at quarterback will be feeling the heat from a home Baltimore defense that can be pretty tough on a given day. Some of these missing pieces are due to start filing back into action, and even without them, they’ve been pretty tough. There was the 9-point allowance to Houston in week one, followed by going into Cincy and holding Burrow and that offense to 24 points and not allowing their offense to detonate. They’re already showing some moxie by overcoming injuries and have a really nice win already.

We see Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson starting to better connect with a revamped aerial supporting cast. It was odd to see Nelson Agholor lead the way last week, but we’ve seen touted rookie Zay Flowers start to poke his head up, in addition to TE Mark Andrews returning last week. And there’s always Rashod Bateman, who is still trying to return after an injury last season. This group is a part of the Ravens’ team that could improve with familiarity growing throughout the season. Indy has some good players on defense, but in allowing 51 combined points to the Jags and Texans, they’ve yet to impress to the point where they’d be something the Baltimore offense can’t handle.

Best-Case Scenario for Indy

Not to be less-than-serious about a concussion to a rookie or to be flippant about his career, but in a short window, it might not be that bad to have Minshew in there if Richardson is held back. Maybe they’re prudent about handling the rookie, in which case, having a guy in there who can actually extract something meaningful from what might be an overlooked receiver crew might give this Indy offense a boost and allow them to take advantage of a Baltimore secondary that is not at full-strength. Along with proven contributor Michael Pittman, they have rookie Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and others who should get a lot more looks and lend some versatility to an Indy offense that is still without their biggest star, RB Jonathan Taylor.

The Colts are also going to need to zero in on a depleted Baltimore O-line and make them pay. It’s unclear yet who will be out there, but if they’re again undermanned, it could be an issue. It’s also unclear how the new-look Baltimore run-game minus Dobbins will perform long-term. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are capable, and along with the legs of Lamar, they should be okay. But until Jackson develops better chemistry with his receiving corps and a star or two emerges from this offense outside of the QB and Andrews, it’s not like Indy should be shaking in their boots.

What to Expect

It’s not easy to say, with Indy’s QB-choice so tied to how they’ll play and how much of an aerial dose we get. But with both teams dealing with some personnel issues on that side of the ball, this might not be a game rife with offensive explosions. Indy’s run game without Taylor isn’t great, but Zack Moss isn’t bad and has some value when down close. I’d expect Baltimore to run the ball, too, while continuing to work on furthering their newfound aerial firepower, something that might take a bit of time.

But with some strength in the trenches and better overall health throughout the team, this doesn’t strike me as a no-hope scenario for the Colts. Beating an off-key early-season Bengals team that is again struggling to get things going and a Houston team doesn’t signal a revival for the Ravens. Baltimore’s offense is still in the development stages, already hampered by injuries up front and in the backfield that you can’t just shake off. And not that Indy is in much of a position to do anything about it with a rookie QB already banged up and without their best player on offense. But most of their setbacks come with reasonable solutions, and other than the injury to Richardson, they’ve had time to brace for these problems.

Take the Points on the Road Underdog

I see the angle for those backing the Ravens in this spot. Against teams on the road boasting of a good defense, this is not a spot where you’d suspect an Indy team to really thrive. Their offense is basically Michael Pittman and whoever might step up and do something. Richardson offers rushing upside, but as an NFL passer, he doesn’t seem to be up to par just yet. They have one of the more dangerous back-ups and should be okay in a game with a big spread where points may not be all that easy to come by. I’ll take the Colts.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Indianapolis Colts plus 7.5 points.