Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Pick

Indianapolis Colts (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2, 3-2)

10/15/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 15

Where: EverBank Stadium

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: Ind +4/Jax -4 (Make the Jaguars a +15 three score underdog by putting them into a massive 19 point football teaser found at Wagerweb!

Moneyline: Indy +170/Jags -200

Total: 45.5

It’s a battle for first place in the AFC South when the Jaguars try to wrangle the Colts Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville. Both teams are 3-2 on the season, but the Jags already own a victory over Indianapolis. So, this game might have great meaning when sorting out this division in January.

Who do we like for our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 6 NFL betting market opened Jacksonville at -4.5 over Indianapolis, with an over/under of right around 45.5. Early betting action then dipped the Jags to -4.

Colts Betting Preview

Indianapolis bounced back from an overtime loss to the Rams two weeks ago to beat Tennessee last week 23-16. The Colts spotted the Titans the first three points of the game but led 10-6 at the half. Indianapolis then fell down 13-10 early in the third quarter but immediately drove to a go-ahead touchdown, added a couple of fourth-quarter field goals and held on from there.

The Colts, who lost starting QB Anthony Richardson to a shoulder injury in the second quarter, out-gained Tennessee 429-348 and won the ground battle 193-89.

Indianapolis opened this season with a home loss to Jacksonville, then won at Houston and at Baltimore before falling at home to the Rams 29-23 in OT. We should point out, though, that the Colts really got out-played by Los Angeles that day and had to rally from down 23-0 just to force overtime.

On the injury front, QB Richardson is out for at least a month so Gardner Minshew, the former Jag, will take over as the starter.

Jaguars Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off back-to-back wins at their home away from home, London, after beating Buffalo last Sunday 25-20. Jacksonville, a 5.5-point dog, took the lead for good with a touchdown on the opening possession of the game and led 11-7 at the half. The Jags then scored the first seven points out of the locker room to go up two scores and held on from there.

Jacksonville out-gained the Bills 474-388, out-rushed Buffalo 196-29, and dominated time of possession by a 38:22 split.

The Jaguars opened this season with a win at Indianapolis, then lost back-to-back games to Kansas City, which isn’t a crime, but also (badly) at home to Houston, which we’ll call a misdemeanor. The Jags then hopped the pond and beat Atlanta 23-7 and the Bills.

Colts-Jaguars Recent History

Jacksonville is 3-1 both SU and ATS over the last four meetings with Indianapolis. Last year these teams split their two games, each winning on their home turf. Then back in Week 1 of this season, in the first match-up between quarterbacks Lawrence and Richardson, the Jaguars won at Lucas Oil Stadium 31-21.

Indianapolis actually led that game 21-17 midway through the fourth quarter before Jacksonville scored twice within one minute to take the lead and ultimately cover the spread at -3.5.

NFL Betting Trends

The Colts are 3-0 both SU and ATS this season in games Minshew took the majority of the snaps.

Totals Report

The overs are 3-2 in Colts games this season, which are averaging 47 total points.

The unders are 3-2 in Jaguars games this season, which are averaging 41 points.

The unders are 43-35 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Both these teams are coming off good wins last week, but we consider Jacksonville, as the better team, less susceptible to a letdown than Indianapolis. Also, the Jaguars own the better defense and the upper hand in the series as of late. We’re giving the points with the Jags.