Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons Pick ATS | Dec 24,2023

Indianapolis Colts (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-8 SU, 4-10 ATS)

NFL Football Week 16

Date/Time: Sunday December 24th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: IND -1.5/ATL +1.5

Moneyline: Indy-125/Dirty Birds +105

Total: 43.5

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Until last week, the Atlanta Falcons were in the midst of a 3-way tie in the NFC South despite a measly 6-7 SU record. In fact, I made mentioned that the Falcons could be considered the favorite to win the division due to the incredibly easy schedule remaining on the calendar. However, Atlanta failed to capitalize on the easy schedule narrative and handed the Carolina Panthers their 2nd win of the season in a miserable 9-7 loss. Not only did Atlanta lose to the worst team in football, but they also fell further behind in the division because both the Buccaneers and Saints were able to win their week 15 match-ups. Now, the Falcons find themselves in a near must-win situation when they host the Indianapolis Colts this weekend at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The visiting Indianapolis Colts improved to 8-6 SU in last Saturday’s 30-13 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts continued to show vast improvement in the passing game with QB Gardner Minshew and also capitalized on a strong defensive effort to seal the victory. As a result, the Colts have captured wins in five of their last six games and are making a push toward making a come from behind run at the AFC South. Like Atlanta, the Colts also have a fairly favorable schedule over the final remaining games, and their playoff hopes will depend on the next few outcomes. For Sunday’s road trip to Atlanta, the Colts will be slight betting favorites in a spot where they have thrived this season, going a perfect 5-0 ATS as the betting favorite.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

I believe most experts would agree that the Falcons offensive success relies around their ability to run the football. Head Coach Arthur Smith has deployed a heavy run-first offense that attempts to keep the ball on the ground over 50% of the time and that number would be much higher if not for the contests where the team has fallen far behind. In last week’s loss to Carolina, the Falcons were unable to move the football at all through the air mainly due to the weather conditions and their run-first offense was stonewalled by one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

The reason I mention these factors is because I believe the Falcons’ ability to make plays down the field in the passing game is directly correlated to their success on the ground. Without a passing threat, Atlanta is easy to defend. While we will not have to worry about the weather this week, QB Desmond Ridder has still been awful behind center with ten touchdowns and ten interceptions on the year. Defenses have been begging Ridder to throw the ball, and sometimes Atlanta has been able to make plays mainly in the direction of WR Drake London.

However, their success in the passing game has never been maintained. From a match-up perspective, the Colts have been very solid against the pass and vulnerable against the run. However, Indianapolis has also matched up very well against run-first offenses with wins over the likes of Baltimore, Tennessee, New England, and Pittsburgh, among others. Simply put, I think the Colts can play coverage at a high rate of success against Atlanta’s offense while keeping guys close to the box to stop the run. The Colts simply match up very well against this Atlanta offense. If the Colts can keep QB Gardner Minshew playing at a solid level and perhaps get some help in the return of RB Jonathan Taylor (questionable), I believe all signs point in favor of Indianapolis from a match-up perspective.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• The Colts are 5-1 ATS in the last six games.
• The Colts are 5-1 SU in the last six games.
• The Colts have hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• The Colts are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against the Falcons.
• The Falcons are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 games.
• The Falcons are 2-5 SU in the last seven games.
• The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in the last six games at home.
• The Falcons are 1-8 SU in the last nine games at home against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

As described above, I really like Indianapolis from a match-up perspective. I’m expecting more scoring this week, which will put the 43.5-point total in serious jeopardy. With that being said, I will take the side as the better play here!

Jay’s Pick: Take Indianapolis -1.5