Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Point Spread Pick

The Houston Texans come to Nashville on Sunday for an AFC South battle with the Tennessee Titans. Houston has seen a promising season hit a rocky patch, and after a 30-6 letdown against the Jets last week, they now stand to become a victim of the injury bug. With that being their 2nd loss in 3 games, they run the risk of falling back from the rest of a crowded AFC pack. They come to Nissan Stadium to face a Titans team that looked to be getting its act together on MNF with a 28-27 win on the road against the Dolphins, their second win in three games. Can Houston fight through this injury trouble, or will we see the Titans take advantage of their undermanned opponent this week at home?

Assessing Houston’s Woes

A few weeks ago, we were lauding the play of rookie MVP candidate QB CJ Stroud, along with his vital aerial crew. First, we saw pieces of the receiver crew begin to fall out of rotation, and with injuries to Nico Collins and Tank Dell, it’s not the same. Losing Dalton Schultz for a period was costly, and Noah Brown has struggled to get back into the thick of what was a lively passing game a few weeks ago. Last week, with Davis Mills thrust back into action, we started to recall how things used to be not so long ago with this Houston team before the arrival of Stroud.

It’s too early in the week to make any iron-clad assessments on the Houston personnel situation. But the heightened concussion concerns leaguewide have made one-week turnarounds rarer for stricken players. Collins was already iffy before getting hurt again early last week, so his progress will need to be monitored, as will Schultz, who has struggled returning from a hamstring. Regardless of the exact particulars, being without Stroud alone throws this Houston offense into a different light. With Stroud, they were a real X-factor in this conference, and if he plays and gets a receiver back, maybe it can work. But if not, their appeal plummets accordingly.

Good Spot for Houston?

As Houston comes to this rough part of the season, maybe playing a Titans team that was off-course until last Monday twice in the next three weeks is what the doctor ordered. While injuries have made them easy pickings for other teams fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC, they might still be in their wheelhouse against a Titans team having a tough season in a lot of different areas. The power of the Houston defense is tied to their offense and falls under more scrutiny with that side of the ball not in order, and even with the offense doing well, they haven’t always shined. But they’ve been solid in spots, and another one of those might be coming against a Tennessee offense that can labor in stretches. Then again, it was eyebrow-raising to see the whole team operation become derailed last week amidst injuries, albeit in a tough and messy road-spot against the Jets. They’re back on the road this week, and while facing what seems like a manageable opponent, we’ll see how competent they are without these key pieces.

Can Tennessee Deliver?

Miami was dealing with some injuries on Monday, making it so maybe one takes the Titans’ surge in that game with a grain of salt. It was their best win of the season by far. QB Will Levis was over 300 yards, DeAndre Hopkins had a big game, and Derrick Henry scored two TDs. It was a rare glimpse of how the Titans’ offense can perform when the conditions are ideal. While we don’t want to be slow to see an offense getting into a groove, we also don’t want to ascribe too much credence to a one-off performance. It matched their season-high in points, showing that on the Titans’ spectrum of possibilities, it was a high-end result.

They’re still in a nice spot at home, with the drop-off from CJ Stroud to Davis Mills a precipitous one. It gives a Tennessee defense a chance to shine at home, something they haven’t always done this season. And with the state of the Texans’ offense throwing a whole new light over the entire Houston football machine, it also offers Levis a chance to keep things rolling on a positive note. Even when things were intact, the Texans’ defense was hardly foolproof, and after falling apart against the Jets and letting Zach Wilson have one of his best games, why can’t the Titans find similar results? And that’s not to imply that against this Titans’ defense, even Davis Mills and a diminished receiver corps can’t find success running the ball with Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce, but let’s say it’s a far less appealing proposition.

Take the Home Favorite

It’s a strange game to break down, with the Houston approach thrown into a tizzy. Their season, one they worked so hard to get on the right track, is in danger of going down the drain. I don’t doubt they can find some answers and try to keep their heads above water during this time. I just think the disruption to the offense is so severe that the entire formula has been thrown off for the Texans. This could all become moot if somehow their key guys make it to the field on Sunday. Otherwise, I see this as being an uphill grind for them, with the Titans getting the win and the cover this week. I’ll take Tennessee in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Tennessee Titans minus 2 points.